Warrior General Games

Let's say I do a bunch of advanced scouting on my opponent and determine that, from a given formation / down / distance / etc., he runs 70% of the time and passes 30%. Accordingly, I set my defense for run (cover 1, look run, etc.) 70% of the time, and pass 30%. Good job, right?

Well, maybe not. If I looked for run 100% of the time, I would be right 70% of the time. If I look for run 70% and pass 30%, I'll only be right 58% of the time (70% x 70% + 30% x 30%).

My question is, how do you guys handle this situation? Bite the bullet and just look run 100% of the time and take what comes? Or throw a little pass in there? The whole "keeping the O honest" idea probably doesn't do much, since teams can't specify to pass out of specific formations in current AI.

Decide which is more important to stop...

In your scenario...

If they have a definite tendency (70/30 or greater) and I want to be really aggressive, I would set the D to stop that tendency 100% of time. To your point, your odds are better that way.

If I don't want to be too aggressive, I will play Run Stop maybe 25-30% of the time and a balanced D the rest (BUT NOT A PASSS STOP D).

If there isn't a clear pattern (50/50) or you want to play it conservative, you will play a more general defensive scheme that is balanced 100% of the time.

I would not play a 70% run stop/30% pass stop in the situation you describe, as you will get caught guessing wrong (because it is random) and give up chunks of yards.

Originally posted by jsully75
Decide which is more important to stop...

Exactly. While you may be statistically more accurate, you have to look at the potential cost of when you are wrong and what is gained by that.

That's just one reason why ultra aggressive defenses rarely work against quality opponents.

The best defenses that I have seen after the introduction of the defensive AI have had that "Bend, Don't Break" philosophy. If you play the run 100%, that 30% of the time they pass is going to ruin your game plan on a fairly consistent basis.

The answer is to play the run, but be prepared for the pass. Something like a Cover 1 with the SS in the box. You're set up to stop the run, "mostly", but still have a method in place to defend against a pass, without going all out quadruple covering people.

Yes I think we agree in general but I am seeing teams play RUN STOP using a Cover 0 and load the box against 2 back offensive sets. This works because you can't set the formation in offense (and it won't throw long passes in two back sets--rarely medium passes).