First off, no snub to those that didnt make the playoffs, its just that I dont have hours .. Im probably going to have to cut out my normal reviews even next season or just predict the games that I think are actually interesting.
Alpha
8. St. Petersburg Red Army Regulars at 1. Barger Hill Burglars
I would say the biggest question about this game is not IF Barger Hill wins, but by how much. RAR hasnt beat anyone all season who was any good. Last week against a 6th zeta seed Helsinki team they got smashed. Losing 5 of their last 6 to back into the playoffs and being 2-5 versus current Alpha playoff teams does not bode well for the game. There was a lot of chest thumping by Blakes earlier in the season about how wrong I was to say that they wouldnt win a lot of games, but I had assumed that Chaos Theory and Tec-9s wouldnt gut, and I certainly didnt expect upsets of Demon Brigade and NFL .. but that happened and here they have the chance to surprise me again .. but I dont think it happens.
5. NFL Fanatix at 4. Gen. Patton's Demon Brigade
One of these teams managed their energy in Week 16 and one did not. Demon Brigade scoring 263 against Moscow was probably enough to have them lose this game. NFL should probably be 10% higher energy for this game, as I figure all of Demon Brigades main players .. and particularly those who play ST lost 40 energy and cant get that back before this game. In the talent department maybe Demon Brigade has more depth and could possibly pull it out using heavy substitutions .. or maybe they learned something from our scrimmage last night and improve some things. Regardless right now due to energy Id favor NFL .. but if Demon Brigade wasnt hit as hard as I am sure they were, they would be the favorites.
7. Sarajevo Reapers at 2. The Geriatric Couch Potatoes
I dont need to say too much about this one either, GCP are heavy favorites in this game. Sarajevo lacks depth at WR, CB, their QB has been inactive for a long time, they are giving up levels across the board. If they could just fill some holes, they could be a very strong team again, but it seems that they need a change in leadership to make that happen. Sarajevo has a 2-5 record against Alpha playoff teams similar to the RAR and that doesnt say much to me for their long term chances in the playoffs. GCP on the other hand, minus one strange game against NFL looks like the true #2 in Alpha or at least has a slight lead on Dubrovnik. They will win this game and will likely get to see if they can squeak out another win in Round 2 against Dubrovnik.
6. Vilnius Maulers at 3. Dubrovnik Destroyers
Well Vilnius finally boosted, their wait paid off and they ended up at #6 with the RAR and Kazan taking late season nosedives as predicted. Dubrovnik has narrowly lost their last two games, but they should still be favored in this game until Vilnius shows that they can beat Dubrovnik. This was a close loss for Vilnius in Week 1, but since then Dubrovnik has shown that they have improved and except for losing by 16 to Barger Hill .. they can play with anyone in Alpha. Slight lean to Dubrovnik .. but if newly boosted Vilnius pulls off the mild upset, it would be no surprise. However, I can tell you that Dubrovnik would like nothing more than to get to the 2nd round and get another shot at GCP and see if they cant come out a close winner this time.
Zeta
8. Bora Bora Brawlers at 1. Dubai Lightning
Four weeks ago Bora Bora was one of the two teams this season to be even within 11 points of Dubai, who was just rolling. Then Week 15 along came Prague and stomped a mudhole in Dubai, showing that they could be shut down and beat. The question is .. can Bora Bora do the same? Overall Dubai has more talent, full chemistry and should win this, but Bora Bora plays good defense, runs the ball and keeps games close. The biggest issue is that if Dubai gets up, I think that Bora Bora will give up some scores and the game will get out of reach for the conservative Bora Bora offense. Dubai probably wins, Id give them 14 points, could be an upset, but unlikely.
5. Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at 4. Scotch Cocks
Who wins this game? Thats a tough one. Scotch has incredible WRs .. their weakness is that they are really one dimensional and if you rattle their QB the game gets out of hand for them because they are really dependent on the pass. Their defense is also built for playing teams like them, pass rushing DL, pass defending LBs, good DBs .. but a more balanced version of Scotch is Lafayette. Personally Id like to see Scotch win, because I feel better about the possibility of shutting them down. But I would give the nod here to Lafayette, because them beating Dubrovnik, even close, tells me a lot more about what they can do than Scotch stomping on an unboosted Vilnius. This game was close in the regular season, with Scotch winning by 4 .. it will probably be just that close again.
7. Leningrad Iron Fists at 2. Stalingrad Gryphon Army
SGA is probably the most complete team in Zeta .. along with Prague. Both are very balanced teams and you arent sure what weapons they will use. If you look at Lafayette, you know that Lejeune is the primary favorite WR, you know Scotch is going to pass, but SGA can run and SGA can pass. They are probably not utilizing all their weapons the best that they can .. but I cant give away too much here, as it is likely my teams plays them in round 2. As for Leningrad, they made the playoffs this season, as I predicted, but their record against current zeta playoff teams is 1-6, with a surprise upset of Bora Bora being the only win. Their average margin of defeat is around 24 points, with their closest being 16 points to Lafayette. Clearly this is SGA's game to lose, they won by 23 in the regular season and it would take a colossal upset for Leningrad to win this one.
6. Helsinki Hell Raisers at 3. Prague Punishers
Helsinki wants to go out in a blaze of glory they say .. so I guess that starts with upsetting Prague. 6 Weeks ago, Prague beat Helsinki by 25 and that was before Prague boosted to become easily the highest average level team in EE Pro. Also a 27 point loss to SGA 3 games ago showed that not much had changed in the time between their loss to Prague and 3 games ago. Beating an 8th seed Alpha last week shows little except that a 1st tier Zeta team can beat up on an Alpha team that lost 5 of their last 6. Prague on the other hand, smashed Dubai, just beat Demon Brigade in a scrimmage and will likely beat another solid team here in a few hours. Typically Im nice with these things, but I really feel that Prague will win this game, Helsinki has a really good pass defense and I think that keeps the game close, but all the advantages I can see go one way.
Recap
Barger Hill
NFL (if Demon Brigade energy bad like I think it is)
GCP
Dubrovnik
Dubai
Lafayette
SGA
Prague
So essentially thats two upsets and they are both in the very hard to call 4/5 games of each conference. Prague was in that game last season and its the hardest game to figure out, because both teams are usually close.
Alpha
8. St. Petersburg Red Army Regulars at 1. Barger Hill Burglars
I would say the biggest question about this game is not IF Barger Hill wins, but by how much. RAR hasnt beat anyone all season who was any good. Last week against a 6th zeta seed Helsinki team they got smashed. Losing 5 of their last 6 to back into the playoffs and being 2-5 versus current Alpha playoff teams does not bode well for the game. There was a lot of chest thumping by Blakes earlier in the season about how wrong I was to say that they wouldnt win a lot of games, but I had assumed that Chaos Theory and Tec-9s wouldnt gut, and I certainly didnt expect upsets of Demon Brigade and NFL .. but that happened and here they have the chance to surprise me again .. but I dont think it happens.
5. NFL Fanatix at 4. Gen. Patton's Demon Brigade
One of these teams managed their energy in Week 16 and one did not. Demon Brigade scoring 263 against Moscow was probably enough to have them lose this game. NFL should probably be 10% higher energy for this game, as I figure all of Demon Brigades main players .. and particularly those who play ST lost 40 energy and cant get that back before this game. In the talent department maybe Demon Brigade has more depth and could possibly pull it out using heavy substitutions .. or maybe they learned something from our scrimmage last night and improve some things. Regardless right now due to energy Id favor NFL .. but if Demon Brigade wasnt hit as hard as I am sure they were, they would be the favorites.
7. Sarajevo Reapers at 2. The Geriatric Couch Potatoes
I dont need to say too much about this one either, GCP are heavy favorites in this game. Sarajevo lacks depth at WR, CB, their QB has been inactive for a long time, they are giving up levels across the board. If they could just fill some holes, they could be a very strong team again, but it seems that they need a change in leadership to make that happen. Sarajevo has a 2-5 record against Alpha playoff teams similar to the RAR and that doesnt say much to me for their long term chances in the playoffs. GCP on the other hand, minus one strange game against NFL looks like the true #2 in Alpha or at least has a slight lead on Dubrovnik. They will win this game and will likely get to see if they can squeak out another win in Round 2 against Dubrovnik.
6. Vilnius Maulers at 3. Dubrovnik Destroyers
Well Vilnius finally boosted, their wait paid off and they ended up at #6 with the RAR and Kazan taking late season nosedives as predicted. Dubrovnik has narrowly lost their last two games, but they should still be favored in this game until Vilnius shows that they can beat Dubrovnik. This was a close loss for Vilnius in Week 1, but since then Dubrovnik has shown that they have improved and except for losing by 16 to Barger Hill .. they can play with anyone in Alpha. Slight lean to Dubrovnik .. but if newly boosted Vilnius pulls off the mild upset, it would be no surprise. However, I can tell you that Dubrovnik would like nothing more than to get to the 2nd round and get another shot at GCP and see if they cant come out a close winner this time.
Zeta
8. Bora Bora Brawlers at 1. Dubai Lightning
Four weeks ago Bora Bora was one of the two teams this season to be even within 11 points of Dubai, who was just rolling. Then Week 15 along came Prague and stomped a mudhole in Dubai, showing that they could be shut down and beat. The question is .. can Bora Bora do the same? Overall Dubai has more talent, full chemistry and should win this, but Bora Bora plays good defense, runs the ball and keeps games close. The biggest issue is that if Dubai gets up, I think that Bora Bora will give up some scores and the game will get out of reach for the conservative Bora Bora offense. Dubai probably wins, Id give them 14 points, could be an upset, but unlikely.
5. Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at 4. Scotch Cocks
Who wins this game? Thats a tough one. Scotch has incredible WRs .. their weakness is that they are really one dimensional and if you rattle their QB the game gets out of hand for them because they are really dependent on the pass. Their defense is also built for playing teams like them, pass rushing DL, pass defending LBs, good DBs .. but a more balanced version of Scotch is Lafayette. Personally Id like to see Scotch win, because I feel better about the possibility of shutting them down. But I would give the nod here to Lafayette, because them beating Dubrovnik, even close, tells me a lot more about what they can do than Scotch stomping on an unboosted Vilnius. This game was close in the regular season, with Scotch winning by 4 .. it will probably be just that close again.
7. Leningrad Iron Fists at 2. Stalingrad Gryphon Army
SGA is probably the most complete team in Zeta .. along with Prague. Both are very balanced teams and you arent sure what weapons they will use. If you look at Lafayette, you know that Lejeune is the primary favorite WR, you know Scotch is going to pass, but SGA can run and SGA can pass. They are probably not utilizing all their weapons the best that they can .. but I cant give away too much here, as it is likely my teams plays them in round 2. As for Leningrad, they made the playoffs this season, as I predicted, but their record against current zeta playoff teams is 1-6, with a surprise upset of Bora Bora being the only win. Their average margin of defeat is around 24 points, with their closest being 16 points to Lafayette. Clearly this is SGA's game to lose, they won by 23 in the regular season and it would take a colossal upset for Leningrad to win this one.
6. Helsinki Hell Raisers at 3. Prague Punishers
Helsinki wants to go out in a blaze of glory they say .. so I guess that starts with upsetting Prague. 6 Weeks ago, Prague beat Helsinki by 25 and that was before Prague boosted to become easily the highest average level team in EE Pro. Also a 27 point loss to SGA 3 games ago showed that not much had changed in the time between their loss to Prague and 3 games ago. Beating an 8th seed Alpha last week shows little except that a 1st tier Zeta team can beat up on an Alpha team that lost 5 of their last 6. Prague on the other hand, smashed Dubai, just beat Demon Brigade in a scrimmage and will likely beat another solid team here in a few hours. Typically Im nice with these things, but I really feel that Prague will win this game, Helsinki has a really good pass defense and I think that keeps the game close, but all the advantages I can see go one way.
Recap
Barger Hill
NFL (if Demon Brigade energy bad like I think it is)
GCP
Dubrovnik
Dubai
Lafayette
SGA
Prague
So essentially thats two upsets and they are both in the very hard to call 4/5 games of each conference. Prague was in that game last season and its the hardest game to figure out, because both teams are usually close.
but the phrase is catchy, yes
