Warrior General Games

You guys owe me a steak dinner for all of this work. There is potential for a LOT of tiebreakers. As a result, I will post for sure scenarios (Win and in or lose and out) and from there, post percentages. I don't have exact exact numbers for Virginia as a heads up, simply because they were used in two separate tiebreaking calculations based on where they stood. As a result, Virginia could actually finish as high as 3rd, or even, in a fluke scenario, on the outside looking in!

That said, I will post the projected seedings based on anticipated game outcomes. After that, I will post clinch scenarios as well as seeding percentages based on tiebreakers.

Western Conference
[1] Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
[2] Portland Aftershocks
[3] Coruscant Death Stars
[4] Gotham City Punishers
[5] Seattle Fish n Chips
[6] Minnesota Lumberjacks
[7] Mile High Mustangs
[8] Atlanta Dirtybirds

Eastern Conference
[1] College Station Stallions
[2] Cleveland Gladiators
[3] Chicago Commandos
[4] North Carolina Nudists
[5] Virginia Hustlers
[6] Bud Dry Beer Barons
[7] Miami Brawlers
[8] Chicago Storm

Western Conference Clinch Scenarios
1] The Louisiana Ragin Cajuns can clinch the #1 seed with a win
2] The Seattle Fish n Chips can clinch the #5 seed with a win
3] The Mile High Mustangs will clinch the #7 seed with a loss
(Note: The Atlanta Dirtybirds have already secured the #8 seed)

Eastern Conference Clinch Scenarios
1] The Chicago Commandos can clinch the #3 seed with a win
2] The Virginia Hustlers secure at least a #6 seed with a win

(Note: College Station and Cleveland have clinched the #1 and #2 seeds, respectively)

Probability of earning seeds*

Western Conference:
1] Louisiana (76.6%), Portland (12%), Gotham City (5.7%), Coruscant (5.7%)
2] Gotham City (37%), Coruscant (30.7%), Portland (18.2%), Louisiana (14.1%)
3] Gotham City (37%), Coruscant (30.7%), Portland (24.5%), Louisiana (7.8%)
4] Portland (45.3%), Coruscant (32.8%), Gotham City (20.3%), Louisiana (1.6%)
5] Seattle (79.2%), Mile High (16.7%), Minnesota (4.2%)
6] Minnesota (66.7%), Seattle (16.7%), Mile High (16.7%)
7] Mile High (66.7%), Minnesota (29.2%), Seattle (4.2%)
8] Atlanta (100%)

Eastern Conference:
1] College Station (100%)
2] Cleveland (100%)
3] Chicago Commandos (76.6%), Bud Dry (12%), North Carolina (5.7%), Virginia (5.7%)
4] North Carolina (30.7%), Virginia (30.7%), Bud Dry (24.5%), Chicago Commandos (14.1%)
5] North Carolina (30.7%), Bud Dry (30.7%), Virginia (30.7%), Chicago Commandos (7.8%)
6] Virginia, North Carolina, Bud Dry, Miami, Georgia, Chicago Storm
7] Chicago Storm (30.7%), Georgia (30.7%), Miami (24.5%), Virginia (14.1%)
8] Chicago Storm (30.7%), Georgia (30.7%), Miami (30.7%), Virginia (7.8%)

Last team out: Chicago Storm (32.8%), Georgia (32.8%), Miami (32.8%), Virginia (1.6%)

* The numbers for Virginia do not add up. As a result of them being used in multiple tiebreakers, no numbers are given for the 6 seed, but they are ranked in order of likelihood to receive the 6th seed.

ETA: If you are curious about a particular scenario, let me know and I can post it. Since there are upwards of 100 different scenarios being considered, it does me no good to post all of them.

what are you? a math major?


awesome work. we all love ya.

Originally posted by keith_dude
what are you? a math major?


awesome work. we all love ya.

That's right, I'm a Math major.

What up with this?

[4] Gotham City Punishers

ya know...this could play into your degree as "research".


wonder how I can parlay my GLB time into "research" for my masters...

Originally posted by tciss
What up with this?

[4] Gotham City Punishers


The projected outcome involves the top 4 teams in the West winning. As a result, Louisiana secures the top seed. After that, since there is a three team tie, GLB uses total points scored in its tiebreaking scenario. Portland has scored more points than Coruscant, who has scored more points than Gotham City, thus the 2-3-4 as it is.

Unless Bort has changed it so that head-to-head applies in three team scenarios and I am unaware, that's how the tiebreaker rolls out.

Originally posted by sully
Originally posted by tciss

What up with this?

[4] Gotham City Punishers


The projected outcome involves the top 4 teams in the West winning. As a result, Louisiana secures the top seed. After that, since there is a three team tie, GLB uses total points scored in its tiebreaking scenario. Portland has scored more points than Coruscant, who has scored more points than Gotham City, thus the 2-3-4 as it is.

Unless Bort has changed it so that head-to-head applies in three team scenarios and I am unaware, that's how the tiebreaker rolls out.

gotcha!

Sully, you can solve the entire Virginia problem by just beating Miami. Sound good to you?

Originally posted by Jon Morse
Sully, you can solve the entire Virginia problem by just beating Miami. Sound good to you?

Sounds good. Any suggestions on how to do that?

Hey Sully,

Just to confirm Georgia's situation.
Chicago Win, Georgia Looses, Miami Looses.
Georgia goes through in 8th to the playoffs?

I assume then it would come down to a direct head to head between Georgia and Miami and as we beat them would go through?

Originally posted by BiggN
Hey Sully,

Just to confirm Georgia's situation.
Chicago Win, Georgia Looses, Miami Looses.
Georgia goes through in 8th to the playoffs?

I assume then it would come down to a direct head to head between Georgia and Miami and as we beat them would go through?

Correct. In that scenario:
Chicago Storm, 10-6
Georgia Storm, 9-7
Miami Brawlers, 9-7

Chicago gets 7th seed based on head to head with Virginia (Assuming they are 6 seed).
Georgia gets 8th seed based on head to head with Miami.
Miami is 9th and out of the playoffs.

Not to be a pain. But If all 3 win, I don't suppose you know how many more points Chicago would need to get 8th?

Originally posted by BiggN
Not to be a pain. But If all 3 win, I don't suppose you know how many more points Chicago would need to get 8th?

If all 3 teams win, Georgia needs to outscore Miami by 16 points to leapfrog them in the standings.

The Chicago Storm, meanwhile, need to outscore Georgia by 118 points to leapfrog them in the playoffs standings (And 133 against Miami, respectively) in this scenario.

Sully,

I thank you very much for your time on this.

Originally posted by BiggN
Sully,

I thank you very much for your time on this.

No problem at all!