Warrior General Games

Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League (OPL) post wk 14 games...

FFLW Caninites Zeta 186.30
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 181.75
Brisbane Heat Zeta 178.51
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 137.92
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 131.80
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 131.80
New England Burning Pride Alpha 103.67
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 101.60
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 94.68
Brisbane Gods Zeta 93.07
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 84.65
Canberra Strike Alpha 80.52
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 77.05
East Coast Tide Alpha 73.70
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 73.03
IC Incinerators Zeta 53.41
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 43.19
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 14.31
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 4.28
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -13.94
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -17.64
Big Island Growas Zeta -26.52
Perth Scorpions Alpha -72.34
Saipan Fighters Zeta -73.63
Auckland Flames Alpha -94.83
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -166.95
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -194.73
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -205.89
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -208.22
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -209.73
Australian Marauders Zeta -265.00
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -295.86

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Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 15 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...

Week 14 predictions: 12-4-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 175-47-2

West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.922
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.885
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.849
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.829
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.822
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.756
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.735
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.729
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.681
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.667
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.643
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.636
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.613
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.611
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.562
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.551
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.449
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.438
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.389
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.387
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.364
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.357
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.333
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.319
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.271
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.265
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.244
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.178
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.171
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.151
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.115
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.078

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Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating diference)]:


Gold: New England Burning Pride (10-4-0) at **Tonga Ikale Tahi (13-1-0) [game rating: 207.33]

Silver: Tongan Crimson Auha (9-5-0) at **Brisbane Heat (13-1-0) [game rating: 146.07]

Bronze: **Rawle Tech Titans (11-3-0) at IC Incinerators (9-5-0) [game rating: 106.82]


**Favored in Predicted Win Probability

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Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 14 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.

Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.


Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0

These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].


NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.

Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.

Another tough game for IC this week (and a medal game too, yay!) as Rawle Tech is one of the teams I look forward to playing the most... but still have a lesser chance to win. RTT is truly a class act team in all respects.

I really hope we can pull off the win though as I would prefer not to play the Cananites in the first round if at all avoidable.

Originally posted by MC_Hammer
Another tough game for IC this week (and a medal game too, yay!) as Rawle Tech is one of the teams I look forward to playing the most... but still have a lesser chance to win. RTT is truly a class act team in all respects.

I really hope we can pull off the win though as I would prefer not to play the Cananites in the first round if at all avoidable.

Right back at you.

This is also a huge game for us.

Originally posted by MC_Hammer
Another tough game for IC this week (and a medal game too, yay!) as Rawle Tech is one of the teams I look forward to playing the most... but still have a lesser chance to win. RTT is truly a class act team in all respects.

I really hope we can pull off the win though as I would prefer not to play the Cananites in the first round if at all avoidable.

See ya on the field bro. I know you want that 1st win against us

Originally posted by killertoad
Originally posted by MC_Hammer

Another tough game for IC this week (and a medal game too, yay!) as Rawle Tech is one of the teams I look forward to playing the most... but still have a lesser chance to win. RTT is truly a class act team in all respects.

I really hope we can pull off the win though as I would prefer not to play the Cananites in the first round if at all avoidable.

See ya on the field bro. I know you want that 1st win against us

And how!

That "mistake" I mentioned last season was switching over to the Advanced Energy settings screen from the Basic Settings one.... without updating first. So my game plan was not altered from the previous game which had totally different tactics than I intended to use against you, only the energy setting were updated.

I still may not win, but I won't be making that mistake again you can be assured.

Originally posted by MC_Hammer
Originally posted by killertoad

Originally posted by MC_Hammer


Another tough game for IC this week (and a medal game too, yay!) as Rawle Tech is one of the teams I look forward to playing the most... but still have a lesser chance to win. RTT is truly a class act team in all respects.

I really hope we can pull off the win though as I would prefer not to play the Cananites in the first round if at all avoidable.

See ya on the field bro. I know you want that 1st win against us

And how!

That "mistake" I mentioned last season was switching over to the Advanced Energy settings screen from the Basic Settings one.... without updating first. So my game plan was not altered from the previous game which had totally different tactics than I intended to use against you, only the energy setting were updated.

I still may not win, but I won't be making that mistake again you can be assured.

Well if you want to give me GM access I'll make sure you have it selected.....snicker.

Good luck man. I'm off to a marathon FF draft at the bar, all you can eat and drink for $12, How the hell can you beat that!!?? I'm gonna be a messy wreck when I get home tonight lol. I predict my post game handshake to go something like this..

Thhhyjks olsiu wujdgnmme