Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League (OPL) post wk 11 games...
FFLW Caninites Zeta 156.24
Brisbane Heat Zeta 153.10
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 149.71
New England Burning Pride Alpha 128.90
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 121.39
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 119.14
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 98.35
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 96.48
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 92.33
East Coast Tide Alpha 69.59
Canberra Strike Alpha 67.50
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 63.75
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 58.69
Brisbane Gods Zeta 50.84
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 48.58
IC Incinerators Zeta 37.77
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 31.98
Big Island Growas Zeta 6.61
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 3.63
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -3.10
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -10.62
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -13.90
Auckland Flames Alpha -55.61
Perth Scorpions Alpha -62.97
Saipan Fighters Zeta -70.72
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -158.03
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -160.48
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -174.69
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -182.98
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -192.50
Australian Marauders Zeta -210.18
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -258.79
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 12 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 11 predictions: 13-3-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 136-38-2
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.879
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.819
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.809
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.788
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.751
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.708
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.705
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.700
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.683
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.613
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.567
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.561
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.557
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.553
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.544
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.542
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.458
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.456
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.447
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.443
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.439
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.433
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.387
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.317
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.300
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.295
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.292
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.249
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.212
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.191
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.181
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.121
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: **FFLW Caninites (10-1-0) at Rawle Tech Titans (9-2-0) [game rating: 238.28]
Silver: Vanuatu Kava Sharks (8-3-0) at **FFLivewire Cans (9-2-0) [game rating: 184.65]
Bronze: **Tonga Ikale Tahi (10-1-0) at Canberra Strike (8-3-0) [game rating: 134.99]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 11 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
FFLW Caninites Zeta 156.24
Brisbane Heat Zeta 153.10
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 149.71
New England Burning Pride Alpha 128.90
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 121.39
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 119.14
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 98.35
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 96.48
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 92.33
East Coast Tide Alpha 69.59
Canberra Strike Alpha 67.50
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 63.75
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 58.69
Brisbane Gods Zeta 50.84
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 48.58
IC Incinerators Zeta 37.77
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 31.98
Big Island Growas Zeta 6.61
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 3.63
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -3.10
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -10.62
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -13.90
Auckland Flames Alpha -55.61
Perth Scorpions Alpha -62.97
Saipan Fighters Zeta -70.72
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -158.03
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -160.48
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -174.69
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -182.98
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -192.50
Australian Marauders Zeta -210.18
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -258.79
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 12 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 11 predictions: 13-3-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 136-38-2
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.879
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.819
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.809
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.788
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.751
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.708
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.705
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.700
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.683
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.613
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.567
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.561
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.557
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.553
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.544
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.542
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.458
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.456
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.447
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.443
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.439
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.433
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.387
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.317
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.300
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.295
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.292
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.249
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.212
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.191
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.181
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.121
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: **FFLW Caninites (10-1-0) at Rawle Tech Titans (9-2-0) [game rating: 238.28]
Silver: Vanuatu Kava Sharks (8-3-0) at **FFLivewire Cans (9-2-0) [game rating: 184.65]
Bronze: **Tonga Ikale Tahi (10-1-0) at Canberra Strike (8-3-0) [game rating: 134.99]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 11 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
