Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League (OPL) post wk 8 games...
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 143.26
FFLW Caninites Zeta 111.37
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 109.52
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 107.03
Brisbane Heat Zeta 99.64
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 96.02
New England Burning Pride Alpha 94.15
East Coast Tide Alpha 93.62
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 77.73
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 73.17
Brisbane Gods Zeta 64.52
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 60.59
Canberra Strike Alpha 57.33
IC Incinerators Zeta 31.01
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 18.51
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 11.32
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 10.67
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 6.79
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -4.65
Big Island Growas Zeta -10.40
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -15.90
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -32.91
Perth Scorpions Alpha -41.45
Auckland Flames Alpha -47.17
Saipan Fighters Zeta -58.92
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -102.88
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -116.67
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -130.21
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -147.46
Australian Marauders Zeta -156.62
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -180.79
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -220.24
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 9 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 8 predictions: 15-1-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 96-30-2
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.863
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.824
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.787
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.768
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.768
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.697
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.673
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.643
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.630
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.618
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.617
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.596
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.578
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.565
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.547
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.511
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.489
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.453
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.435
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.422
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.404
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.383
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.382
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.370
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.357
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.327
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.303
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.232
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.232
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.213
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.176
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.137
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: **FFLivewire Cans (8-0-0) at Brisbane Gods (5-3-0) [game rating: 129.03]
Silver: **East Coast Tide (7-1-0) at Brantford Mustangs (5-3-0) [game rating: 121.19]
Bronze: IC Incinerators (5-3-0) at **Vanuatu Kava Sharks (6-2-0) [game rating: 62.03]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 8 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 143.26
FFLW Caninites Zeta 111.37
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 109.52
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 107.03
Brisbane Heat Zeta 99.64
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 96.02
New England Burning Pride Alpha 94.15
East Coast Tide Alpha 93.62
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 77.73
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 73.17
Brisbane Gods Zeta 64.52
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 60.59
Canberra Strike Alpha 57.33
IC Incinerators Zeta 31.01
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 18.51
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 11.32
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 10.67
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 6.79
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -4.65
Big Island Growas Zeta -10.40
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -15.90
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -32.91
Perth Scorpions Alpha -41.45
Auckland Flames Alpha -47.17
Saipan Fighters Zeta -58.92
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -102.88
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -116.67
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -130.21
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -147.46
Australian Marauders Zeta -156.62
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -180.79
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -220.24
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 9 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 8 predictions: 15-1-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 96-30-2
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.863
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.824
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.787
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.768
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.768
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.697
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.673
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.643
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.630
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.618
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.617
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.596
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.578
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.565
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.547
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.511
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.489
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.453
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.435
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.422
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.404
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.383
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.382
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.370
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.357
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.327
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.303
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.232
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.232
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.213
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.176
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.137
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: **FFLivewire Cans (8-0-0) at Brisbane Gods (5-3-0) [game rating: 129.03]
Silver: **East Coast Tide (7-1-0) at Brantford Mustangs (5-3-0) [game rating: 121.19]
Bronze: IC Incinerators (5-3-0) at **Vanuatu Kava Sharks (6-2-0) [game rating: 62.03]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 8 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
