Warrior General Games

I've run the prediction spreadsheet for our league. See here for info:

http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=470138

After Week 5 (it takes a few weeks for the spreadsheet to become accurate), here are the projected standings and scores:

Projected Standings:

Rk__Team____________________W___L___T____%_____PF____PA__
..1 . . DVDTalk Otters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 . . ..0 . . 0 . . 100% . . 740 . . ...111
..2 . . Rapid City Rushmores. . . . . . . . . . 15 . . ..1 . . 0 . . ..94% . . 644 . . ...188
..3 . . Caprica Buccaneers. . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . ..2 . . 0 . . ..88% . . 800 . . ...261
..4 . . Sioux Falls Storm. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 . . ..4 . . 0 . . ..75% . . 540 . . ...211
..5 . . Uncle Sam's Misguided Children. 12 . . ..4 . . 0 . . ..75% . . 542 . . ...276
..6 . . Anchorage Wolves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 . . ..5 . . 0 . . ..69% . . 483 . . ...297
..7 . . Death Valley Vikings. . . . . . . . . . . . .10 . . ..6 . . 0 . . ..63% . . 620 . . ...344
..8 . . Chicago Maroons. . . . . .. ... . . .. . . . ..9 . . ..7 . . 0 . . ..56% . . 510 . . ...305
..9 . . Midwest Mayhem. . . . . .. . . . . . . . ..7 . . ..9 . . 0 . . ..44% . . 427 . . ...410
10 . . San Diego Silver Shock. . . . . .. .. . . ..7 . . ..9 . . 0 . . ..44% . . 486 . . ...437
11 . . Pittsburgh Highlanders . . . . .. . . . . ..5 . . 11 . . 0 . . ..31% . . 212 . . ...381
12 . . Death Valley Shadowblades. . . . . ..4 . . 12 . . 0 . . ..25% . . 246 . . ...436
13 . . Ivalice Tacticianers. . . . . . . . . . . . . ...2 . . 14 . . 0 . . ..13% . . 231 . . ...738
14 . . Honolulu Red Devils. . . . . . .. . . . . . ..2 . . 14 . . 0 . . ..13% . . 193 . . ...684
15 . . Rocky Mountain Thunder . . .. . . . . ..2 . . 14 . . 0 . . ..13% . . 175 . . 1,179
16 . . San Jose SkyForce. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..0 . . 16 . . 0 . . ....0% . . ..67 . . ...691



Rk__Team______________________W___L___T____%_____PF____PA__
..1 . . New Brunswick Scarlet Knights . .. . .. 16 . . ..0 . . 0 . . 100% . . 1,230 . . ...172
..2 . . New Hampshire Hustlers . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . ..2 . . 0 . . ..88% . . 1,112 . . ...280
..3 . . Miami Hammerheads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . ..2 . . 0 . . ..88% . . ...688 . . ...185
..4 . . Gulf State Demons . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . ..2 . . 0 . . ..88% . . ...652 . . ...210
..5 . . Salem Cyber Hawks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 . . ..5 . . 0 . . ..69% . . ...834 . . ...268
..6 . . Scranton Wilkes-Barre Menzingers . . . 10 . . ..6 . . 0 . . ..63% . . ...814 . . ...458
..7 . . Vice City Mambas . . . . . … .. . . . . . . . . 10 . . ..6 . . 0 . . ..63% . . ...674 . . ...273
..8 . . Detroit Outlaws . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 . . ..6 . . 0 . . ..63% . . ...550 . . ...254
..9 . . Miami Makos . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . ..9 . . ..7 . . 0 . . ..56% . . ...582 . . ...228
10 . . Las Vegas High Rollers . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..7 . . ..9 . . 0 . . ..44% . . ...453 . . ...297
11 . . Akron Browns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...6 . . 10 . . 0 . . ..38% . . ...533 . . ...476
12 . . Memphis Showboats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..4 . . 12 . . 0 . . ..25% . . ...342 . . ...369
13 . . Atlanta Wolves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..3 . . 13 . . 0 . . ..19% . . ...463 . . ...559
14 . . Houghton Gremlins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..2 . . 14 . . 0 . . ..13% . . ...238 . . ...875
15 . . South Texas Skull Crushers . . . . . . . . . ..1 . . 15 . . 0 . . ....6% . . ...118 . . 1,772
16 . . Michigan Rage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..0 . . 16 . . 0 . . ....0% . . .....77 . . 2,674

Scores:

Western Conference

Rapid City (45) over San Diego (14)
DVDTalk (51) over Death Valley #1 (5)
Caprica (45) over Pittsburgh (9)
Anchorage (48) over Honolulu (8)
Death Valley #2 (113) over Rocky Mountain (10)
Sioux Falls (66) over Ivalice (9)
Uncle Sam (52) over San Jose (3)
Chicago (22) over Midwest (20)


Eastern Conference

New Brunswick (46) over New Hampshire (19)
Gulf Stage (57) over Houghton (6)
Miami #1 (19) over Vice City (14)
Miami #2 (111) over South Texas (4)
Salem (27) over Las Vegas (13)
Detroit (28) over Scranton W-B (25)
Memphis (114) over Michigan (4)
Akron (39) over Atlanta (23)

And a few hypotheticals:

DVDTalk (20) over NBSK (9)
Rapid City (15) over NBSK (12)
Caprica (19) tie NBSK (19)

And before anyone gets upset - these are the spreadsheet predictions, not my predictions. They tend to be a little hokie in first few weeks, but after week 5, the win/loss becomes pretty accurate and after week 8 or so, the scores become very accurate. If a team boosts before a game, the spreadsheet can't account for that, and if a team brings in or dumps a bunch of players before a game, the spreadsheet can't account for that.

I'll continue to run the hypotheticals with the Projected #1 in the West vs. the Projected #1 in the East, then the loser vs. the #2 in the conference, etc as a point of reference to see how the spreadsheet compares to the conferences.

5 points? FIVE? You may outscore us x10, but the sheet gives us a safety!

Originally posted by matta
Projected Standings:

Rk__Team______________________W___L___T____%_____PF____PA__
..1 . . New Brunswick Scarlet Knights . .. . .. 16 . . ..0 . . 0 . . 100% . . 1,230 . . ...172
..2 . . New Hampshire Hustlers . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . ..2 . . 0 . . ..88% . . 1,112 . . ...280
..3 . . Miami Hammerheads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . ..2 . . 0 . . ..88% . . ...688 . . ...185
..4 . . Gulf State Demons . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . ..2 . . 0 . . ..88% . . ...652 . . ...210
..5 . . Salem Cyber Hawks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 . . ..5 . . 0 . . ..69% . . ...834 . . ...268
..6 . . Scranton Wilkes-Barre Menzingers . . . 10 . . ..6 . . 0 . . ..63% . . ...814 . . ...458
..7 . . Vice City Mambas . . . . . … .. . . . . . . . . 10 . . ..6 . . 0 . . ..63% . . ...674 . . ...273
..8 . . Detroit Outlaws . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 . . ..6 . . 0 . . ..63% . . ...550 . . ...254
..9 . . Miami Makos . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . ..9 . . ..7 . . 0 . . ..56% . . ...582 . . ...228
10 . . Las Vegas High Rollers . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..7 . . ..9 . . 0 . . ..44% . . ...453 . . ...297
11 . . Akron Browns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...6 . . 10 . . 0 . . ..38% . . ...533 . . ...476
12 . . Memphis Showboats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..4 . . 12 . . 0 . . ..25% . . ...342 . . ...369
13 . . Atlanta Wolves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..3 . . 13 . . 0 . . ..19% . . ...463 . . ...559
14 . . Houghton Gremlins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..2 . . 14 . . 0 . . ..13% . . ...238 . . ...875
15 . . South Texas Skull Crushers . . . . . . . . . ..1 . . 15 . . 0 . . ....6% . . ...118 . . 1,772
16 . . Michigan Rage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..0 . . 16 . . 0 . . ....0% . . .....77 . . 2,674


Ok so NBSK and what other team did we lose too? I need to know this stuff so that I can prevent the projected losses from happening. We will go back to the future and prevent said things from happening.

Nothing personal but these spreadsheet predictions are garbage. Last season proved how inaccurate they are IMO. Again, nothing against you just the spreadsheet stuff.

Originally posted by Motion15
Nothing personal but these spreadsheet predictions are garbage.I run the spreadsheet for another league. After only four games, it got 15 out of 16 W/L predictions for the next game correct. Not too shabby if you ask me.

One major thing you have to take into account is peoples schedules. For instance, DVD has had the easiest schedule thus far out of any of the top contenders in the West. So when you enter their statistics into the spread sheet they are naturaly going to have higher numbers. Hence, their projection to go undefeated.

Mayhem will win more than 7 lol

Easiest Schedules Remaining in the West:

1. Caprica
2. San Diego
3. Uncle Sam's


Most Difficult Schedules Remaining in the West:

1. Shadowblades
2. DVDTalk
3. Midwest

And the spreadsheet keeps track of who you've played. Let's say there's Team A and Team B and you want to rank them. Team A just beat San Jose and Team B beat Anchorage. What the spreadsheet does is it compares who beat or lost to San Jose and by how much, and who beat or lost to Anchorage and by how much, then attempts to develop a relative ranking. So, at the end of the day, a 5 pt win over Anchorage might be worth more than a 50 pt win over San Jose.

Originally posted by jkdog855

Ok so NBSK and what other team did we lose too? I need to know this stuff so that I can prevent the projected losses from happening. We will go back to the future and prevent said things from happening.

Miami Hammerheads (23) over New Hampshire (22)

Just a little close..

Originally posted by Motion15
Nothing personal but these spreadsheet predictions are garbage. Last season proved how inaccurate they are IMO. Again, nothing against you just the spreadsheet stuff.

They are obviously not perfect - there's random elements that Bort includes and there are issues the spreadsheet cannot capture (boosting and roster moves). However, they've done pretty well in other leagues and usually beat individual predictions, so I think it's a good measuring stick, or at least an interesting thing to look at.

Originally posted by erik_m_vos
Mayhem will win more than 7 lol

It shows one close loss (to Memphis, I really don't see you losing that game) and the rest of the losses are by 12 pts or more.

The predictions will change over the next several weeks, so we'll see what happens.