Warrior General Games

seems like my original post might have been lost in the mess of name calling and whining, so let's start a new thread.

don't feel like cut&pasting everything, so you can take a look at:

http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=551656&page=last#4238039

also please comment on if you think the Cubes being ahead of Detroit is absurd or not (this isn't an attempt boosting the team i'm on, it just happens that this is probably the most 'irregular' event that should have implications on power rankings.. with a terrible Cubes team being on a hot run and a good Detroit team being on a slide)

http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=551656&page=last#4238438

its more in line with how i would rank them if it was a poll, so looks good to me. i think the voodoo have really started to make their move, and the poll reflects it.

Originally posted by prettylew
Originally posted by ggezhb

with the backoff% at 6%
we finally see something interesting in the east... 5-9 Cubes pass up 7-7 Detroit despite Detroit crushing the Cubes 22-0 earlier

however the Cubes had won 4 in a row (including 2 #1's) before losing today by 10 to a pretty good Pontiac team, while Detroit is on a 5 game skid though none of them to any truly bad teams....

so who should be higher in the power rankings in your mind?


EAST
Canton Hall Of Famers (12-2) (404-151) : 118.197297
Milwaukee Fire (11-3) (377-209) : 114.587191
Murder City Devils (11-3) (419-147) : 114.311359
Michigan Panthers (11-3) (479-179) : 112.601087
Columbus Buckeyes (11-3) (377-154) : 111.358429
Pontiac War Kittens (11-3) (281-156) : 108.145223
Seattle Reign (9-5) (355-209) : 104.099845
Lexington Mob (7-7) (322-339) : 101.124227
Maryland Iron Maidens (7-7) (261-200) : 100.269320
Carson City Cubes (5-9) (203-347) : 96.894474
Detroit Soldiers (7-7) (259-241) : 96.810114
Megatropolis Tigers (4-10) (236-289) : 91.514899
Washington Wildcats (4-10) (201-360) : 90.030266
Hartford Hurricanes (1-13) (90-349) : 81.718766
New York Huskies (1-13) (60-630) : 79.116218
New Jersey Vikings (0-14) (102-466) : 74.978328

I'm not bashing the post but... How come Murder City is below Canton when they scored more points and held opponents to fewer points? Is it just the 1 extra win for now? If they are both 12-3 next week is Murder City on top?

fair question.. it can't be attributed to just wins or point differential. while they do both contribute, the biggest factor at work here is probably this 'backoff' factor, meaning more recent games count for more than earlier games.

this is Canton's schedule and their effects:
Canton Hall Of Famers 24 - Michigan Panthers 3
opp's raw: 2.969605 , change: 4.216839(@100%) = 4.216839
Canton Hall Of Famers 33 - Detroit Soldiers 3
opp's raw: 2.054000 , change: 3.286400(@94%) = 3.089216
Canton Hall Of Famers 20 - Milwaukee Fire 17
opp's raw: 2.715748 , change: 2.878693(@88%) = 2.533250
Canton Hall Of Famers 51 - New York Huskies 10
opp's raw: 0.332298 , change: 0.604783(@82%) = 0.495922
Canton Hall Of Famers 30 - Seattle Reign 6
opp's raw: 2.531155 , change: 3.746109(@76%) = 2.847043
Canton Hall Of Famers 27 - Washington Wildcats 7
opp's raw: 1.360581 , change: 1.904813(@70%) = 1.333369
Canton Hall Of Famers 20 - Megatropolis Tigers 10
opp's raw: 1.634286 , change: 1.961143(@64%) = 1.255131
Canton Hall Of Famers 62 - Carson City Cubes 7
opp's raw: 1.464416 , change: 2.928831(@58%) = 1.698722
Canton Hall Of Famers 10 - Murder City Devils 23
opp's raw: 3.006562 , change: -1.251731(@52%) = -0.650900
Canton Hall Of Famers 23 - Columbus Buckeyes 26
opp's raw: 2.915658 , change: -1.149403(@46%) = -0.528725
Canton Hall Of Famers 23 - Hartford Hurricanes 7
opp's raw: 0.686463 , change: 0.906131(@40%) = 0.362452
Canton Hall Of Famers 27 - New Jersey Vikings 3
opp's raw: 0.538732 , change: 0.797324(@34%) = 0.271090
Canton Hall Of Famers 20 - Maryland Iron Maidens 17
opp's raw: 2.198482 , change: 2.330390(@28%) = 0.652509
Canton Hall Of Famers 34 - Lexington Mob 12
opp's raw: 1.961422 , change: 2.824448(@22%) = 0.621379

here is MCD's:
Murder City Devils 20 - Megatropolis Tigers 3
opp's raw: 1.634286 , change: 2.189943(@100%) = 2.189943
Murder City Devils 16 - Carson City Cubes 19
opp's raw: 1.464416 , change: -2.687719(@94%) = -2.526456
Murder City Devils 27 - Pontiac War Kittens 17
opp's raw: 2.714776 , change: 3.257731(@88%) = 2.866804
Murder City Devils 23 - Columbus Buckeyes 6
opp's raw: 2.915658 , change: 3.906981(@82%) = 3.203725
Murder City Devils 76 - Hartford Hurricanes 0
opp's raw: 0.686463 , change: 1.372925(@76%) = 1.043423
Murder City Devils 38 - New Jersey Vikings 10
opp's raw: 0.538732 , change: 0.840423(@70%) = 0.588296
Murder City Devils 27 - Maryland Iron Maidens 3
opp's raw: 2.198482 , change: 3.253753(@64%) = 2.082402
Murder City Devils 38 - Lexington Mob 10
opp's raw: 1.961422 , change: 3.059818(@58%) = 1.774695
Murder City Devils 23 - Canton Hall Of Famers 10
opp's raw: 3.040927 , change: 3.831568(@52%) = 1.992415
Murder City Devils 9 - Michigan Panthers 29
opp's raw: 2.969605 , change: -1.442553(@46%) = -0.663574
Murder City Devils 10 - Detroit Soldiers 7
opp's raw: 2.054000 , change: 2.177240(@40%) = 0.870896
Murder City Devils 24 - Milwaukee Fire 16
opp's raw: 2.715748 , change: 3.150268(@34%) = 1.071091
Murder City Devils 78 - New York Huskies 0
opp's raw: 0.332298 , change: 0.664596(@28%) = 0.186087
Murder City Devils 10 - Seattle Reign 17
opp's raw: 2.531155 , change: -1.674483(@22%) = -0.368386

as you can see, 4 of the last 5 games for Canton have been wins against quality teams and in most cases they won them convincingly, and gets +13.182270 rating just from those 5 games...

meanwhile, a recent lose to a bad team in the Cubes dropped MCD (2.687719*0.94)
also some of MCDs more impressive victories were earlier in the season, so for example only 34% of 3.150268 gain vs the Fire counted, and only 52% of the 3.831568 counted in your win vs Canton

does that seem reasonable?

very

That makes complete sense. Thank you for the very detailed explanation.

I like these rankings, a lot. Thanks for posting them.

If you feel charitable enough, run them for us next season?

Great job ggezhb!! This is a very good league that should have a great playoffs. Hopefully, Canton can pull a huge win off a very good War Kittens team and claim the top seed of this thing

thanks and of course i can keep running these.

there are several settings which can be adjusted/tweaked to give better/different results, so if anyone sees something they don't like, feel free to speak up.

for example, with the backoff% at 6% C^3 actually passed up Detroit in the rankings, and with the backoff% at 5% Detroit kept their lead. So i had asked if people thought C^3 had any business being ahead of a team that has 2 more wins and won readily in their head-to-head... i guess it's just asking how much more value a power rankings should put on recent performances.

for now i guess i'll keep running at 5%
(at 6% backoff, game 1 would only carry a 10% weight by the time you're on game 16.. at 5% game 1 would be at 25% weight)

what about 5.5%?

The backoff is important as teams have gotten better and some teams haven't so much. I like the way it is

nice work.