Here's the playoff picture after 14 games for USA BBB #1.
The number in {brackets} next to each team is their "magic number." ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_number_%28sports%29 ) Any combination of wins by your team or losses by the team you need to finish ahead of means you clinch a playoff spot.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1 Eleven Wise Monkeys 14-0 [CLINCHED 2nd round at home] {1 for conference title}
2 Louisville Nighthawks 13-1 [CLINCHED 2nd round at home] {4 for conference title}
3 Boston Massacre 11-3 [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {2 for 1st round at home}
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4 Bristol Bullets 10-4 W {1 for playoff spot / 2 for 1st round at home}
5 New York Warriors 10-4 W {1 for playoff spot / 3 for 1st round at home}
6 New York Hope 9-5 L {2 for playoff spot / 4 for 1st round at home}
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7t Alcatraz Island Jailbreakers 8-6 W {3}
7t TCC's Wax-Bustin Warriors 8-6 W {3}
7t Dallas Rampage 8-6 L {3}
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10 Miami Sharks 5-9 [ELIMINATED]
11 Syracuse Souls 5-9 [ELIMINATED]
12 Colonial Zoners 4-10 [ELIMINATED]
13 Cleveland Firebirds 4-10 [ELIMINATED]
14 Hartford Musician 2-12 [ELIMINATED]
15 Baltimore Knights 1-13 [ELIMINATED]
16 Richmond Retros 0-14 [ELIMINATED]
The Monkeys need just one more win to clinch the conference title. And their next two games are gimmes: Richmond, and then Bay Area. If they don't finish undefeated, I'll be shocked.
Louisville has clinched a top-2 finish, but would need a miracle to pass the Monkeys to claim the conference title. The Monkeys would have to lose their final two. And while Louisville will almost certainly win their finale against the OKC Outlaws, they'll first have to get past an upstart TCC team that's already notched two upsets this season. And Louisville barely scraped past Alcatraz, so they're potentially vulnerable.
Boston has finally locked in a playoff spot. They'll almost certainly notch a win against Colonial, but their finale against Fresno won't be a sure win.
Bristol and the NY Warriors are each one win away from clinching their playoff spots. Bristol closes out against Cleveland and Vallonia, neither of whom should pose much of a challenge. The NY Warriors have a far tougher road: Alcatraz, followed by the #2 Western team, the LA Reign.
The NY Hope need to win their last two to secure a playoff spot. Syracuse is a likely win, but the Florida Bulls pose a challenge. As such, the Hope may need help in the form of the teams below them losing a game or two.
There's a 3-way tie at 7th, and only 2 of those 3 teams can make it into the playoffs. There's a head-to-head victory-loop in play here: Alcatraz beat TCC, TCC beat Dallas, and Dallas beat Alcatraz. That means that if this 3-way tie holds 'til the end, the next level tie-breaker would be needed... and I'm not sure what comes next after the head-to-head tie-breaker!
Alcatraz closes against NY Warriors and Minnesota.
TCC closes against Louisville and Minden.
Dallas closes against Baltimore and Little Haiti.
That means all 3 teams have one gimme and one tough game awaiting them. All 3 teams could easily finish at 9-7 for a 3-way tie. That would get messy. It would help a lot if one of these 3 teams could notch an upset, and the most likely one would seem to be Dallas upsetting Little Haiti at this point, while TCC has the most difficult upset to aim for against Louisville.
And finally, losses for both Miami and Syracuse mean they're out of the playoff hunt entirely.
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WESTERN CONFERENCE
1 Oklahoma City Spartans 14-0 [CLINCHED 2nd round at home] {1 for conference title}
2 Los Angeles Reign 13-1 W [CLINCHED 2nd round at home] {4 for conference title}
3 Over The Rhine Red Dots 11-3 L [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {2 for 1st round at home}
4t Little Haiti Voodoo 10-4 W [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {3 for 1st round at home}
4t San Jose Chupacabra 10-4 L [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {3 for 1st round at home}
4t Florida Bulls 10-4 W [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {3 for 1st round at home}
7 South Otto Fragile Porcelain Mice 9-5 W [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {4 for 1st round at home}
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8 Fresno Fire 7-7 L {2}
9 Reno Marauders 6-8 L {5}
10 Vallonia BeaverHunters 5-9 L {6}
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11 Bay Area Bastards 5-9 [ELIMINATED]
12 Minden Musketeers 4-10 [ELIMINATED]
13 Colorado Springs Flyers 3-11 [ELIMINATED]
14 Oklahoma City Outlaws 2-12 [ELIMINATED]
14 Minnesota Americans 2-12 [ELIMINATED]
16 Candy Mountian Unicorns 1-13 [ELIMINATED]
The OKC Spartans have clinched a top-2 finish, and they can clinch the conference title with 1 more win. Next opponent: Minnesota, followed by Miami.
With LA's win and Over The Rhine's loss, the Reign have also clinched a top-2 finish. But catching the Spartans for the conference title will be difficult... the Spartans would have to lose twice, and the Reign would have to knock off Little Haiti and then the NY Warriors.
Little Haiti and Florida both clinched playoff spots, but they're in a 3-way tie for 4th place along with San Jose. And they have a head-to-head victory loop as well: San Jose beat Little Haiti, Little Haiti beat Florida, and Florida beat San Jose.
Little Haiti closes against the LA Reign and the Dallas Rampage.
San Jose closes with gimmes against Minden and Richmond.
Florida has a gimme with Candy Mountian, and a tough match with the NY Hope.
San Jose is the most likely to emerge on top at this point, followed by Florida, then Little Haiti.
South Otto has clinched a playoff berth, and can finish no lower than 7th thanks to wins over Fresno and Reno. And with their final games against Vallonia and Cleveland, they still have an outside chance at finishing as high as 4th.
Bay Area is out, but oddly enough Vallonia is still in thanks to the fact that they scored an upset victory over Fresno earlier this season. But Vallonia would need to win out, and Fresno and Reno would both need to drop their final two games.
Fresno closes out with tough games against Over The Rhine and Boston.
Reno gets two gimmes against Colorado Springs and Syracuse.
Vallonia has to face South Otto and Bristol.
That means Reno has the easiest remaining schedule and is actually in the driver's seat... if they win out and Fresno loses out. But if Fresno can pull off an upset, Reno is out. And if Vallonia loses one game, Vallonia is out. This will be an interesting finish.
The number in {brackets} next to each team is their "magic number." ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_number_%28sports%29 ) Any combination of wins by your team or losses by the team you need to finish ahead of means you clinch a playoff spot.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1 Eleven Wise Monkeys 14-0 [CLINCHED 2nd round at home] {1 for conference title}
2 Louisville Nighthawks 13-1 [CLINCHED 2nd round at home] {4 for conference title}
3 Boston Massacre 11-3 [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {2 for 1st round at home}
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4 Bristol Bullets 10-4 W {1 for playoff spot / 2 for 1st round at home}
5 New York Warriors 10-4 W {1 for playoff spot / 3 for 1st round at home}
6 New York Hope 9-5 L {2 for playoff spot / 4 for 1st round at home}
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7t Alcatraz Island Jailbreakers 8-6 W {3}
7t TCC's Wax-Bustin Warriors 8-6 W {3}
7t Dallas Rampage 8-6 L {3}
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10 Miami Sharks 5-9 [ELIMINATED]
11 Syracuse Souls 5-9 [ELIMINATED]
12 Colonial Zoners 4-10 [ELIMINATED]
13 Cleveland Firebirds 4-10 [ELIMINATED]
14 Hartford Musician 2-12 [ELIMINATED]
15 Baltimore Knights 1-13 [ELIMINATED]
16 Richmond Retros 0-14 [ELIMINATED]
The Monkeys need just one more win to clinch the conference title. And their next two games are gimmes: Richmond, and then Bay Area. If they don't finish undefeated, I'll be shocked.
Louisville has clinched a top-2 finish, but would need a miracle to pass the Monkeys to claim the conference title. The Monkeys would have to lose their final two. And while Louisville will almost certainly win their finale against the OKC Outlaws, they'll first have to get past an upstart TCC team that's already notched two upsets this season. And Louisville barely scraped past Alcatraz, so they're potentially vulnerable.
Boston has finally locked in a playoff spot. They'll almost certainly notch a win against Colonial, but their finale against Fresno won't be a sure win.
Bristol and the NY Warriors are each one win away from clinching their playoff spots. Bristol closes out against Cleveland and Vallonia, neither of whom should pose much of a challenge. The NY Warriors have a far tougher road: Alcatraz, followed by the #2 Western team, the LA Reign.
The NY Hope need to win their last two to secure a playoff spot. Syracuse is a likely win, but the Florida Bulls pose a challenge. As such, the Hope may need help in the form of the teams below them losing a game or two.
There's a 3-way tie at 7th, and only 2 of those 3 teams can make it into the playoffs. There's a head-to-head victory-loop in play here: Alcatraz beat TCC, TCC beat Dallas, and Dallas beat Alcatraz. That means that if this 3-way tie holds 'til the end, the next level tie-breaker would be needed... and I'm not sure what comes next after the head-to-head tie-breaker!
Alcatraz closes against NY Warriors and Minnesota.
TCC closes against Louisville and Minden.
Dallas closes against Baltimore and Little Haiti.
That means all 3 teams have one gimme and one tough game awaiting them. All 3 teams could easily finish at 9-7 for a 3-way tie. That would get messy. It would help a lot if one of these 3 teams could notch an upset, and the most likely one would seem to be Dallas upsetting Little Haiti at this point, while TCC has the most difficult upset to aim for against Louisville.
And finally, losses for both Miami and Syracuse mean they're out of the playoff hunt entirely.
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WESTERN CONFERENCE
1 Oklahoma City Spartans 14-0 [CLINCHED 2nd round at home] {1 for conference title}
2 Los Angeles Reign 13-1 W [CLINCHED 2nd round at home] {4 for conference title}
3 Over The Rhine Red Dots 11-3 L [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {2 for 1st round at home}
4t Little Haiti Voodoo 10-4 W [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {3 for 1st round at home}
4t San Jose Chupacabra 10-4 L [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {3 for 1st round at home}
4t Florida Bulls 10-4 W [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {3 for 1st round at home}
7 South Otto Fragile Porcelain Mice 9-5 W [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {4 for 1st round at home}
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8 Fresno Fire 7-7 L {2}
9 Reno Marauders 6-8 L {5}
10 Vallonia BeaverHunters 5-9 L {6}
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11 Bay Area Bastards 5-9 [ELIMINATED]
12 Minden Musketeers 4-10 [ELIMINATED]
13 Colorado Springs Flyers 3-11 [ELIMINATED]
14 Oklahoma City Outlaws 2-12 [ELIMINATED]
14 Minnesota Americans 2-12 [ELIMINATED]
16 Candy Mountian Unicorns 1-13 [ELIMINATED]
The OKC Spartans have clinched a top-2 finish, and they can clinch the conference title with 1 more win. Next opponent: Minnesota, followed by Miami.
With LA's win and Over The Rhine's loss, the Reign have also clinched a top-2 finish. But catching the Spartans for the conference title will be difficult... the Spartans would have to lose twice, and the Reign would have to knock off Little Haiti and then the NY Warriors.
Little Haiti and Florida both clinched playoff spots, but they're in a 3-way tie for 4th place along with San Jose. And they have a head-to-head victory loop as well: San Jose beat Little Haiti, Little Haiti beat Florida, and Florida beat San Jose.
Little Haiti closes against the LA Reign and the Dallas Rampage.
San Jose closes with gimmes against Minden and Richmond.
Florida has a gimme with Candy Mountian, and a tough match with the NY Hope.
San Jose is the most likely to emerge on top at this point, followed by Florida, then Little Haiti.
South Otto has clinched a playoff berth, and can finish no lower than 7th thanks to wins over Fresno and Reno. And with their final games against Vallonia and Cleveland, they still have an outside chance at finishing as high as 4th.
Bay Area is out, but oddly enough Vallonia is still in thanks to the fact that they scored an upset victory over Fresno earlier this season. But Vallonia would need to win out, and Fresno and Reno would both need to drop their final two games.
Fresno closes out with tough games against Over The Rhine and Boston.
Reno gets two gimmes against Colorado Springs and Syracuse.
Vallonia has to face South Otto and Bristol.
That means Reno has the easiest remaining schedule and is actually in the driver's seat... if they win out and Fresno loses out. But if Fresno can pull off an upset, Reno is out. And if Vallonia loses one game, Vallonia is out. This will be an interesting finish.
