Okay, my goal of this is not to point fingers, I have stopped posting pretty much in EE Pro because I am a bit of a lightning rod. However, what I am interested in is competitiveness. While I am waiting for my game today, I decided just to run numbers to see how bad gutting has affected our league. I encourage people to take a look at this data and see how competitive your team really is comparatively and please dont leave if you are down this season.
The best thing that happened to our league this season is the infusion of all the high quality talent in the form of the Dubrovnik Destroyers, Barger Hill Buglers, Belgrade Black Hand, Helsinki Hell Raisers and Stalingrad Gryphon Army. The biggest problem is that after last season Alpha had 3 teams and Zeta had 2 teams that really needed to go, however, the issue was that two more teams in both conference were abandoned. And because of this, Alpha has 5 non-competitive teams again this season and Zeta has 3, as Sooneer's team has needed to go for the past 3 seasons and he always lucks out, but unless they suddenly get much better, next season Zeta will only have 1-2 bad teams, Silesia and possibly if another team gets gutted, I believe that Novosibirsk is also competitive and would have a positive scoring margin if in Alpha. Alpha will still take 3 seasons just to become competitive with the teams that need to go this season. That is why it is even more important that people stick with Alpha conference so that it doesnt become impossible for the conference to improve itself. That is my goal, that the entire league is competitive and we have a lot of fun having to plan for people every week.
Worst Teams - In order from Worst to Least Worst
To make this list group, basically you had to be non-competitive, I consider an average margin of more than 28 points difference per game to be non-competitive.
Name_Points For/Game_Points Against/Game_Difference_Conference
Budapest Blue Devils 0.9 98.2 -97.2 Alpha (was bad before gutted)
Bisons Sentinals 1.8 91.4 -89.6 Alpha
Atlantis Stormbringers 1.5 75.7 -74.2 Zeta (gutted before season)
Hungarian Golden Warriors 8.1 78.2 -70.1 Alpha (gutted)
Silesia Miners 4.1 64 -59.9 Zeta (gutted/abandoned)
New York Knights 12.5 68.8 -56.3 Alpha (gutted)
Team Phoenix 13.3 47.1 -33.8 Alpha (only 38 of their 146 points came against teams not listed above them in this group.)
Lower Tier Teams - These are non-postive margins less than -28
Again this is in worst to best order.
Sooner Syndicate 7.1 31.4 -24.3 Zeta
Novosibirsk Grey Wolves 10.5 22.9 -12.4 Zeta (Id say that this is a competitive team here and all those above them)
Moscow Dragons 18.7 26.4 -7.7 Zeta
Chernobyl Mutants 17.5 23.2 -5.7 Zeta
Transylvania Drachen 15.7 20.8 -5.1 Zeta
Now this is the most interesting part I believe, because all of the teams that are in this category are in Zeta, why is that one might ask? That is because Zeta is more competitve and the lower tier teams are one of two things: 1) Not that significantly better than their bad Zeta counterparts, meaning there are more mediocre teams. 2) That there are just more bad teams in Alpha.
I think that both of these are part of the problem, as demonicangel has stated before, for the most part Alpha is deep with GOOD quality, the issue is that the bottom 5 are just REALLY bad, whereas Zeta has less REALLY bad teams, but there are more mediocre teams.
The average scoring margin for Alpha from both of the above groups is -69.4, so they are losing by an average of 70 points per game, the average margin for Zeta is -27.04. I personally believe that any of Moscow, Chernobyl, Transylvania and Novosibirsk would be well in the postive score differential margin if one of them and Sooner were replaced with cupcakes similar to their Alpha counterparts and then the average score margin would also be more lopsided.
However, I believe that it would do justice to look at the middle and see where they stand, I believe that the Alpha differential will carry over into the middle as well.
Middle Tier Teams - Positive Scoring Margin, Under 28pts
Cincinnati Tigers 26.5 21 5.5 Zeta
Dubai Lightning 23.2 14.2 9 Zeta 8
St. Petersburg Red Army Regulars 31.9 21.5 10.4 Alpha
Georgia Tec-9s 28.8 17.5 11.3 Alpha
Rockford Warriors 24.4 12.8 11.6 Zeta 7
Kazan Golden Horde 33.9 17.5 16.4 Alpha
Rome Gladiators 31.1 13.8 17.3 Zeta 6
Budapest Brawlers 28.3 10.7 17.6 Zeta 5
Minsk Koats 32.5 11.5 21 Alpha 8
Washington Chairmen 37.5 15.4 22.1 Alpha 7
Helsinki Hell Raisers 34.5 7.6 26.9 Zeta 2
NFL Fanatix 44.1 15.2 28.9 Alpha 6
Okay, now what I will say is that at I believe that the Top 5 teams in each conference are probably competitive with one another, I have a lot of respect for each of the top teams in both conferences. From the above scores for the middle is seems like playing in Alpha is worth about 10-11 points per game just based on the larger margin that solid Alpha teams blow out the bottom tier. That is a big difference in the 42 points per game that it would appear by just looking at the lowest teams. So what happens in the middle was as expected, the middle of Alpha is more competitive with the top while all of Alpha blows out the bottom and then Zeta doesnt blow out the bottom of Zeta quite as much as they could and isnt quite as competitive with the top tier as the middle of Alpha.
Elite Teams - Over 28 PPG Positive Margin
Prague Punishers 37.5 6.8 30.7 Zeta 4
Stalingrad Gryphon Army 42.5 8.8 33.7 Zeta 3
Barger Hill Burglars 44.6 10.4 34.2 Alpha 4
Belgrade Black Hand 45.5 8.4 37.1 Zeta 1
Gen. Patton's Demon Brigade 50.4 10.6 39.8 Alpha 5
Sheboygan Chaos Theory 53.5 7.5 46 Alpha 3
Sarajevo Reapers 58.7 5.2 53.5 Alpha 2
Dubrovnik Destroyers 67.3 4.1 63.2 Alpha 1
And stragely enough, the top mirrors the bottom, 3 Zeta teams are in this 28+ point bracket and 5 Alpha teams, pretty much equivalent to the number of non-competitive teams in each conference. Also, reflective of the league is the fact that the top Alpha teams rack up really huge numbers against this larger number of cupcakes and therefore are 4 of the top 5 scoring teams. Here again at the top it is worth about 20 points per game to play in Alpha.
So lets look back:
Bottom: 40 points less scored in Alpha
Middle: 10 points more scored in Alpha
Top: 20+ points more scored in Alpha
Makes sense that it would work like that, since it almost adds up.
Anyhow I was just curious to look at it all numerically to see how it works out.
The best thing that happened to our league this season is the infusion of all the high quality talent in the form of the Dubrovnik Destroyers, Barger Hill Buglers, Belgrade Black Hand, Helsinki Hell Raisers and Stalingrad Gryphon Army. The biggest problem is that after last season Alpha had 3 teams and Zeta had 2 teams that really needed to go, however, the issue was that two more teams in both conference were abandoned. And because of this, Alpha has 5 non-competitive teams again this season and Zeta has 3, as Sooneer's team has needed to go for the past 3 seasons and he always lucks out, but unless they suddenly get much better, next season Zeta will only have 1-2 bad teams, Silesia and possibly if another team gets gutted, I believe that Novosibirsk is also competitive and would have a positive scoring margin if in Alpha. Alpha will still take 3 seasons just to become competitive with the teams that need to go this season. That is why it is even more important that people stick with Alpha conference so that it doesnt become impossible for the conference to improve itself. That is my goal, that the entire league is competitive and we have a lot of fun having to plan for people every week.
Worst Teams - In order from Worst to Least Worst
To make this list group, basically you had to be non-competitive, I consider an average margin of more than 28 points difference per game to be non-competitive.
Name_Points For/Game_Points Against/Game_Difference_Conference
Budapest Blue Devils 0.9 98.2 -97.2 Alpha (was bad before gutted)
Bisons Sentinals 1.8 91.4 -89.6 Alpha
Atlantis Stormbringers 1.5 75.7 -74.2 Zeta (gutted before season)
Hungarian Golden Warriors 8.1 78.2 -70.1 Alpha (gutted)
Silesia Miners 4.1 64 -59.9 Zeta (gutted/abandoned)
New York Knights 12.5 68.8 -56.3 Alpha (gutted)
Team Phoenix 13.3 47.1 -33.8 Alpha (only 38 of their 146 points came against teams not listed above them in this group.)
Lower Tier Teams - These are non-postive margins less than -28
Again this is in worst to best order.
Sooner Syndicate 7.1 31.4 -24.3 Zeta
Novosibirsk Grey Wolves 10.5 22.9 -12.4 Zeta (Id say that this is a competitive team here and all those above them)
Moscow Dragons 18.7 26.4 -7.7 Zeta
Chernobyl Mutants 17.5 23.2 -5.7 Zeta
Transylvania Drachen 15.7 20.8 -5.1 Zeta
Now this is the most interesting part I believe, because all of the teams that are in this category are in Zeta, why is that one might ask? That is because Zeta is more competitve and the lower tier teams are one of two things: 1) Not that significantly better than their bad Zeta counterparts, meaning there are more mediocre teams. 2) That there are just more bad teams in Alpha.
I think that both of these are part of the problem, as demonicangel has stated before, for the most part Alpha is deep with GOOD quality, the issue is that the bottom 5 are just REALLY bad, whereas Zeta has less REALLY bad teams, but there are more mediocre teams.
The average scoring margin for Alpha from both of the above groups is -69.4, so they are losing by an average of 70 points per game, the average margin for Zeta is -27.04. I personally believe that any of Moscow, Chernobyl, Transylvania and Novosibirsk would be well in the postive score differential margin if one of them and Sooner were replaced with cupcakes similar to their Alpha counterparts and then the average score margin would also be more lopsided.
However, I believe that it would do justice to look at the middle and see where they stand, I believe that the Alpha differential will carry over into the middle as well.
Middle Tier Teams - Positive Scoring Margin, Under 28pts
Cincinnati Tigers 26.5 21 5.5 Zeta
Dubai Lightning 23.2 14.2 9 Zeta 8
St. Petersburg Red Army Regulars 31.9 21.5 10.4 Alpha
Georgia Tec-9s 28.8 17.5 11.3 Alpha
Rockford Warriors 24.4 12.8 11.6 Zeta 7
Kazan Golden Horde 33.9 17.5 16.4 Alpha
Rome Gladiators 31.1 13.8 17.3 Zeta 6
Budapest Brawlers 28.3 10.7 17.6 Zeta 5
Minsk Koats 32.5 11.5 21 Alpha 8
Washington Chairmen 37.5 15.4 22.1 Alpha 7
Helsinki Hell Raisers 34.5 7.6 26.9 Zeta 2
NFL Fanatix 44.1 15.2 28.9 Alpha 6
Okay, now what I will say is that at I believe that the Top 5 teams in each conference are probably competitive with one another, I have a lot of respect for each of the top teams in both conferences. From the above scores for the middle is seems like playing in Alpha is worth about 10-11 points per game just based on the larger margin that solid Alpha teams blow out the bottom tier. That is a big difference in the 42 points per game that it would appear by just looking at the lowest teams. So what happens in the middle was as expected, the middle of Alpha is more competitive with the top while all of Alpha blows out the bottom and then Zeta doesnt blow out the bottom of Zeta quite as much as they could and isnt quite as competitive with the top tier as the middle of Alpha.
Elite Teams - Over 28 PPG Positive Margin
Prague Punishers 37.5 6.8 30.7 Zeta 4
Stalingrad Gryphon Army 42.5 8.8 33.7 Zeta 3
Barger Hill Burglars 44.6 10.4 34.2 Alpha 4
Belgrade Black Hand 45.5 8.4 37.1 Zeta 1
Gen. Patton's Demon Brigade 50.4 10.6 39.8 Alpha 5
Sheboygan Chaos Theory 53.5 7.5 46 Alpha 3
Sarajevo Reapers 58.7 5.2 53.5 Alpha 2
Dubrovnik Destroyers 67.3 4.1 63.2 Alpha 1
And stragely enough, the top mirrors the bottom, 3 Zeta teams are in this 28+ point bracket and 5 Alpha teams, pretty much equivalent to the number of non-competitive teams in each conference. Also, reflective of the league is the fact that the top Alpha teams rack up really huge numbers against this larger number of cupcakes and therefore are 4 of the top 5 scoring teams. Here again at the top it is worth about 20 points per game to play in Alpha.
So lets look back:
Bottom: 40 points less scored in Alpha
Middle: 10 points more scored in Alpha
Top: 20+ points more scored in Alpha
Makes sense that it would work like that, since it almost adds up.
Anyhow I was just curious to look at it all numerically to see how it works out.
Last edited Jul 5, 2008 07:15:17
