Its been doing this for years. The team I used to have, I spent a lot of time scouting and game planning. Advanced tactics, custom depth, custom plays, etc, etc. We faced one team that was beast at stopping the run but worst in the leag stopping the pass. So naturally I called the pass. Out of 42 plays, 2 were passes and the rest were runs. No auto adjust, no other inputs, ran the AI tester, filed a bug report. Had a mod look over the AI, etc, etc.
Final answer.....
Bad streak with the RNG.
Even though 100% chance to call something shouldnt need the RNG to determine which play to call, that was the answer. I've dealt with it for 3 years, 23 seasons. Every season there was at least one game that did it. Every season I put up a bug report. Every season I went through the same hoops, the same steps all for the same answer.
Bad streak with the RNG.