Both games are rematches of week 16 games and if the results stay the same, it will be Gerr vs Gerr in the final. I think it should be two interesting games, but I'm not sure who will win either one. It's not like last season where Hudson and CWLB were the heavy favorites. Does anybody have the picking script to give us a better picture for these games or some better analysis that I can't provide?
awsalick
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For whatever reason, the picking scripts doesn't do score estimates in the playoffs. But it will still create rankings.
1 ...... 1 ...... 1 ........ 0.512 ........ 16-2 Fighting Gamecocks
2 ...... 2 ...... 2 ........ 0.468 ........ 18-0 Chicago Window Licking Bears
3 ...... 8 ...... 5 ........ 0.497 ........ 17-1 Crib Midgets
4 ...... 3 ...... 6 ........ 0.503 ........ 15-3 All Pro Cowboys
5 ...... 6 ...... 4 ........ 0.522 ........ 14-4 Green Bay Packerz
6 ...... 14 ...... 7 ........ 0.533 ........ 12-5 D-Town Demolition
7 ...... 5 ...... 10 ........ 0.548 ........ 13-5 PAIN NATION MIDGETS
8 ...... 4 ...... 11 ........ 0.484 ........ 13-4 Hudson Deuces
9 ...... 17 ...... 3 ........ 0.495 ........ 14-4 O'Side Pee Wee's
10 ...... 11 ...... 8 ........ 0.520 ........ 13-5 AZ Cardz
Here's my breakdown:
AZ Cards vs Crib Midgets
A very interesting matchup. On one hand, you have the Midgets, who took the #1 seed, are full/full, and only suffered one loss the entire season. The Cardz are No/No, only have 50 players (thanks to being NBNC champs last season), so everything looks to point Crib's way, except for the fact that the Cardz were the only team to beat them. So the big question is: Can the Cardz pull off the upset again?
Looking at their last game, it certainly seems like they can. Gerr's defenses are formidable, and he completely throttled Crib. When comparing teams, I like to compare yards + # of punts * (yards/punt - 10) as sort of a gauge for how they controlled the field. The comparison during that game isn't even close. Cards had 373 yards of field position versus only 226 for Crib. So I don't think you can chalk that game up to random luck. That said, having the full/full advantage usually means you'll break one or two plays for TDs simply because you have more speed than the other team. That didn't happen last game, but it's something to watch out for.
Pick: Cardz 9 - Midgets 7
Fighting Gamecocks vs Chicago Window Licking Bears
This has become almost an annual tradition in the playoffs now. They're consistently the two best teams in the entire league according to the ranking script and for good reason. FGC typically dominates the regular season and then sputters in the playoffs. But CWLB survived a scare last week (editors note: fuuuuucccckkkk!).
The Bears beat the Gamecocks in week 16 of the season, so it'd be easy to draw conclusions like I did in the Midgets-Cardz matchup. But the thing I'm looking at here is activity. jkid has done approximately 1 billion scrims in the past week. The result? He absolutely crushed one of the teams that beat him in the regular season just 8 days prior. What is to say that he hasn't improved his AI to be vastly different than the one before? He crushed the two playoff teams he has played, so I'm guessing there isn't a lot of great film to go off of based on what he's running now.
On the flipside, Gerr has got a TON of game film to plan based on. With the Cardz making a deep playoff run both here and the NBNC, plus the CWLB themselves, there is a lot of data there on Gerr's stalwart defenses. The Packerz managed to exploit that in the previous game. It's hard to assume there is a blueprint now, since Gerr will definitely adjust, but it is a balance to adjust without weakening other parts.
Pick: Fighting Gamecocks 21- Chicago Window Licking Bears 17
1 ...... 1 ...... 1 ........ 0.512 ........ 16-2 Fighting Gamecocks
2 ...... 2 ...... 2 ........ 0.468 ........ 18-0 Chicago Window Licking Bears
3 ...... 8 ...... 5 ........ 0.497 ........ 17-1 Crib Midgets
4 ...... 3 ...... 6 ........ 0.503 ........ 15-3 All Pro Cowboys
5 ...... 6 ...... 4 ........ 0.522 ........ 14-4 Green Bay Packerz
6 ...... 14 ...... 7 ........ 0.533 ........ 12-5 D-Town Demolition
7 ...... 5 ...... 10 ........ 0.548 ........ 13-5 PAIN NATION MIDGETS
8 ...... 4 ...... 11 ........ 0.484 ........ 13-4 Hudson Deuces
9 ...... 17 ...... 3 ........ 0.495 ........ 14-4 O'Side Pee Wee's
10 ...... 11 ...... 8 ........ 0.520 ........ 13-5 AZ Cardz
Here's my breakdown:
AZ Cards vs Crib Midgets
A very interesting matchup. On one hand, you have the Midgets, who took the #1 seed, are full/full, and only suffered one loss the entire season. The Cardz are No/No, only have 50 players (thanks to being NBNC champs last season), so everything looks to point Crib's way, except for the fact that the Cardz were the only team to beat them. So the big question is: Can the Cardz pull off the upset again?
Looking at their last game, it certainly seems like they can. Gerr's defenses are formidable, and he completely throttled Crib. When comparing teams, I like to compare yards + # of punts * (yards/punt - 10) as sort of a gauge for how they controlled the field. The comparison during that game isn't even close. Cards had 373 yards of field position versus only 226 for Crib. So I don't think you can chalk that game up to random luck. That said, having the full/full advantage usually means you'll break one or two plays for TDs simply because you have more speed than the other team. That didn't happen last game, but it's something to watch out for.
Pick: Cardz 9 - Midgets 7
Fighting Gamecocks vs Chicago Window Licking Bears
This has become almost an annual tradition in the playoffs now. They're consistently the two best teams in the entire league according to the ranking script and for good reason. FGC typically dominates the regular season and then sputters in the playoffs. But CWLB survived a scare last week (editors note: fuuuuucccckkkk!).
The Bears beat the Gamecocks in week 16 of the season, so it'd be easy to draw conclusions like I did in the Midgets-Cardz matchup. But the thing I'm looking at here is activity. jkid has done approximately 1 billion scrims in the past week. The result? He absolutely crushed one of the teams that beat him in the regular season just 8 days prior. What is to say that he hasn't improved his AI to be vastly different than the one before? He crushed the two playoff teams he has played, so I'm guessing there isn't a lot of great film to go off of based on what he's running now.
On the flipside, Gerr has got a TON of game film to plan based on. With the Cardz making a deep playoff run both here and the NBNC, plus the CWLB themselves, there is a lot of data there on Gerr's stalwart defenses. The Packerz managed to exploit that in the previous game. It's hard to assume there is a blueprint now, since Gerr will definitely adjust, but it is a balance to adjust without weakening other parts.
Pick: Fighting Gamecocks 21- Chicago Window Licking Bears 17
Gerr
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I don't think Crib game planned in week 16 as it was a meaningless game for them. I just don't see my no-no team pulling another upset here and Crib should win by 2+ scores.
As for CWLB vs FGC, this game will be a close one and you can flip a coin as to the outcome. My Bears team doesn't feel quite as good as it was last season's playoffs and FGC is better. My defense should keep FGC scoring in check, but FGC is too good to be shutout. So the main question for this game is if LE's offense can score enough against FGC's stout defense.
My picks...
Crib over AZ 21-7.
CWLB over FGC 24-21.
As for CWLB vs FGC, this game will be a close one and you can flip a coin as to the outcome. My Bears team doesn't feel quite as good as it was last season's playoffs and FGC is better. My defense should keep FGC scoring in check, but FGC is too good to be shutout. So the main question for this game is if LE's offense can score enough against FGC's stout defense.
My picks...
Crib over AZ 21-7.
CWLB over FGC 24-21.
jkid2
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Originally posted by Gerr
I don't think Crib game planned in week 16 as it was a meaningless game for them. I just don't see my no-no team pulling another upset here and Crib should win by 2+ scores.
As for CWLB vs FGC, this game will be a close one and you can flip a coin as to the outcome. My Bears team doesn't feel quite as good as it was last season's playoffs and FGC is better. My defense should keep FGC scoring in check, but FGC is too good to be shutout. So the main question for this game is if LE's offense can score enough against FGC's stout defense.
My picks...
Crib over AZ 21-7.
CWLB over FGC 24-21.
I certainly agree with you that Crib didn't want to give anything away in the week 16 game and will probably be much better the 2nd time around similar to how FG improved in the 2nd game vs All Pro Cowboys. As for our game, FG has looked better in its playoff games, but CWLB has a slightly higher effective level and two coordinators vs one for FG. I have a feeling that one play in one direction will decide the game, maybe a ST play or something like that. I hope I can pull out the game, but I foresee a score more like 10-7 or 14-10.
I don't think Crib game planned in week 16 as it was a meaningless game for them. I just don't see my no-no team pulling another upset here and Crib should win by 2+ scores.
As for CWLB vs FGC, this game will be a close one and you can flip a coin as to the outcome. My Bears team doesn't feel quite as good as it was last season's playoffs and FGC is better. My defense should keep FGC scoring in check, but FGC is too good to be shutout. So the main question for this game is if LE's offense can score enough against FGC's stout defense.
My picks...
Crib over AZ 21-7.
CWLB over FGC 24-21.
I certainly agree with you that Crib didn't want to give anything away in the week 16 game and will probably be much better the 2nd time around similar to how FG improved in the 2nd game vs All Pro Cowboys. As for our game, FG has looked better in its playoff games, but CWLB has a slightly higher effective level and two coordinators vs one for FG. I have a feeling that one play in one direction will decide the game, maybe a ST play or something like that. I hope I can pull out the game, but I foresee a score more like 10-7 or 14-10.
Thunder66
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Originally posted by Gerr
My defense should keep FGC scoring in check, but FGC is too good to be shutout. So the main question for this game is if LE's offense can score enough against FGC's stout defense.
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LE thrown under the short bus before the game sims.
My defense should keep FGC scoring in check, but FGC is too good to be shutout. So the main question for this game is if LE's offense can score enough against FGC's stout defense.
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LE thrown under the short bus before the game sims. You are not logged in. Please log in if you want to post a reply.
