Warrior General Games

This is from the spreadsheet available in the forums. Thanks go out to the guy who created it. I just entered in schedule and scores.

THIS IS NOT MY PREDICTION! I DO NOT NECESSARILY AGREE WITH WHAT HAS BEEN SAID. This is just what it tells me, after I enter all the numbers. Im not sure how the format is going to look

East

1 Alpine Golfers 16 0
2 Akron Assassins 15 1
3 Chicago Bruins 14 2
4 Memphis Ghetto Dawgs 13 3
5 Tampa Vipers 10 6
6 North Carolina Lighthouses 10 6
7 New Orleans Eagles 9 7
8 Schenectady Comets 9 7
9 Richmond Speed 8 8
10 Philadelphia Brokebacks 7 9
11 Klamath Falls Grizzlies 6 10
12 South Beach Tokers 4 12
13 Denver Stallions 4 12
14 Orlando Mambas 2 14
15 Elk Rapids Elks 1 15
16 Forgotten Ones 1 15

West

1 Omaha Dogs 15 1
2 Albuquerque Mustangs 14 2
3 San Diego Marauders 14 2
4 Anchorage Seawolves 13 3
5 Houston Apollos 10 6
6 Reno 911 10 6
7 Rocky Mountain Rampage 10 6
8 Hyborian Divine Messengers 9 7
9 Chattanooga Quarantine 8 8
10 Oakyville Nungas 6 10
11 San Francisco Wildcats 6 10
12 Corvallis Furburgers 6 10
13 Kalamazoo Wolverines 4 12
14 Trojan Warriors 2 14
15 Dakota Ruffians 1 15
16 Ambridge Brigade 0 16


If you want to know what teams it has your team losing to just PM me. This should change a little bit each week. It'll help with playoff projections as the season goes on. I can also post Who has had the toughest schedule to date, who has the toughest remaining schedule, and who is the toughest team in defeat (who fights hardest in a loss) if everyone wants

Where's the spreadsheet at?

Thanks!

What information did it base the wins/loses on??

Lol we are 6-1 now, and it projects us becoming 8-8, geesh lol.

Well, it's just a projection, but I don't know what it bases the scores off of?

Originally posted by Alcapown
Lol we are 6-1 now, and it projects us becoming 8-8, geesh lol.

That was the biggest surprise to me. I really doubt that actually happens.

To be honest, I have no idea how the formula work, you can read about it and get the spread sheet in one of the major forums. The guy who did it seems pretty smart and while at 1st the scores it predicts aren't very accurate (If a team shuts someone out in week 1, the computer predicts them to shutout everyone) but as I entered in more weeks scores got more realistic. I guess in USA Pro the scores were very accurate for week 7 games. I'll post what it predicts for week 8 scores for this league in a little bit

Ya, I want to know as well.

Predicted Scores for Week 8 games

Anchorage 64 Trojan 11
San Diego 50 Houston 31
Reno 19 Rocky Mountain 17
Omaha 39 Corvallis 4
Albuquerque 39 Dakota 3
Chattanooga 33 Oakyville 20
Hyborian 23 Kalamazoo 14
San Francisco 35 Ambridge 5

Schenectady 17 Klamath Falls 9
Alpine 13 Akron 10
North Carolina 34 South Beach 9
Chicago 28 Philadelphia 4
Memphis 40 Tampa 19
New Orleans 23 Forgotten 5
Denver 18 Elk Rapids 8
Richmond 22 Orlando 11

Seems realistic. But there are a lot of high scoring games there.

Originally posted by Bob Miley
Seems realistic. But there are a lot of high scoring games there.

The scores are more an indication of strength, rather than an estimation of the actual score.

since its a formula predicting another formula. itll be interesting to see how close it can be to correct... i wont complain. looks good to me.

If this was a vegas line, i would take the Warriors getting 53 points..

I would also take the Nungas down 13, but that is just me.

no way north cArolina beats is that badly

Lol dang I don't think we're beating the Trojans that bad. They're really good, just on bit of a slump

This is the info on the spreadsheet given by the creator:


Originally posted by Satchmo-n-Dizzy
I have a fairly simple-to-use Excel 2007 spreadsheet (2003 users have been able to convert it) that is setup and ready to go.

The only data entry required:

1) The league schedules for the 32 teams. (Don't worry, it's not as daunting as it seems. There is a 'schedule assist' to help you, and 15 of the 16 schedules in each conference are identical, just staggered. The 16th team acts as a wildcard to replace a team 'scheduled' to play itself)

2) The scores for each game.


The reports available (all are available upon entry of game 1 scores):

1) Current Standings.

2) Projected Standings. (through game 16)

3) Toughest Remaining Schedule. (ranks conference by difficulty of remaining sched)

4) Easiest Remaining Schedule.

5) Toughest Schedule So Far. (ranks conference by difficulty of sched played to date)

6) Easiest Schedule So Far.

7) Toughest Opponents in Defeats. (ranks conference by difficulty of opponents that have beaten a given team)

8) Easiest Opponents in Defeats.

9) Toughest Opponents in Victories. (ranks conference by difficulty of opponents that have been beaten by a given team)

10) Easiest Opponents in Victories.

11) Points Scored. (most -> least)

12) Projected Points Scored. (over 16 games)

13) Points Allowed. (least -> most)

14) Projected Points Allowed. (over 16 games)


What is the algorithm?

The algorithm is actually very simple. It uses a comparative analysis of scores across all games to arrive at factors for each team (expressed as a %). The analysis will easily determine the SoS that a team has played to date vs what said team will play over the remainder of the season. It becomes more and more accurate as the season wears on. However, it has no ability to recognize or account for significant changes to rosters (gutting, recruiting) that may occur during the season.

There is far too little data to arrive at a consensus for week 16 games against the other conference, so it is not unusual to see the algorithm arrive at considerably different conclusions based on the perspective. But within a given conference, the results has been impressive thus far.

The concept...

A team 'A' that averages 56 PF and 6 PA is to play a team 'B' that averages 21 PF and 4 PA. How does one determine the better team going in? By looking at those numbers relative to the teams played to date. Team A's average opponent scores 36 ppg while allowing 28. Team B's average opponent scores 24 and allows 7. That means that Team A scores 200% of the norm allowed against its opponents while allowing 17%. Team B also scores 300% but allows only 14%.

Simplified, the algorithm would take Team A's 200% and multiply it by the 4 PA by Team B (8), then take the 17% and multiply it by 21 (3.5). For Team B it would take 300% and multipy it by 6 (18), then the 14% multipled by 56 (8). The algorithm would then resolve these numbers by taking the mean of each result = Team A will score... (8 + 8) / 2 = 8. Team B will score... (3.5 + 18) / 2 = 11.75. The projection picks Team B.

In practice, the algorithm will look at each game played by a team independently. So upward (or downward) trends will not be tempered by league averages. The determined percentage is, in essence, an average. And, of course, the projected score is and average as described above. However, the numbers that drive the analysis are much more volitile. This allows for greater accuracy based on trends and will typically gain in strength during the season.