1. Mice. Play the Hornets in week 15 to determine if the Mice retain the top slot, or enter in a 3-way-tie with teh Hornets and the Hounds. Too lazy to go see the points difference, but it'll change a bunch by then anyway!
2. Hounds. We saw DC come back on the hounds and give a scary final score; but still, barring a major upset, Nashville rounds out the year 15-1 and will either be second or in a 3-way tie for first.
3. Hornets. At this point, it's hard to see the Hornets stumbling against the Fury or the Fiesta. The Mice game in week 15 will determine if they are the 3 seed or in a 3-way tie for first! For people who haven't had to play them the last two years, the Hornets were surprisingly strong and solid this season.
4. Fiesta. The Fiesta will have to pull off major upsets to hold on to the last home playoff game. They have near definite losses on their schedule to both the Hornets and Hounds, and also have to get past DC, who is playing really strong dotball right now. The loss to the Marios was an eye-opener, and means they even have to take the Fury seriously, who have been struggling lately. Still, even if they drop to 9-7, making the playoffs is a near definite.
5. ATKM. They rebounded from their surprising loss to Philly with a less-than-convincing win over Paris and then a solid performance at Pittsburgh. They really control their own destiny now, though...they have a loss on their schedule to the hounds, but the other games are winnable. If they manage to get by Tennessee and DC, the 4th slot is theirs...but that's a big *if*. Tennessee can never be taken lightly, and DC is playing really solid dotball right now.
6. San Diego. Most of the teams from 4-8 have a surprising loss on their records, and SD is no exception...they played Humboldt to 6, led the Mice in the 4th quarter, and yet got pummeled by Detroit. Their convincing win over Philly tells me that they are going to take care of business to close out the year, which means their only loss is to the hounds...and Nashville will be wise to note how close both the Mice and Hornets came to losing those games! Note that if San Diego finishes 10-6, they have the tiebreaker over the Fiesta.
7. DC. yeah, they've lost 2 straight...to the Hornets and Hounds. Their only losses are to the 3 elite teams in the east, the Monkeys, and SD on a good day...which makes DC a very scary team going into the stretch. It's going to be hard to beat the Mice-Hornets matchup for game of the week in wk15, but the ATKM-DC game in wk15 could be key. If DC manages to win out, then they claim the tiebreaker over ATKM and would snag the #4 seed with an 11-54 record. Quite a feat for what many thought would be a non-competitive team coming into the year!
8. Tennessee. The Fury lost two that they shouldn't have, and it's put them in a really rough position. All four of their remaining games are against teams higher in the rankings than they are. They may need 2 of those just to make the playoffs! Note that Philly should end 8-8 and has the tiebreaker over Tennessee!
9. Chico. Their upset of the Fiesta and their loss to Atlantic City are really defining the Panthers' season right now. They have 2 wins on their schedule and a definite loss to the hounds, but if they can't pull the upset over DC in week 16, then they will enter into a potential 3-way tie with Tennessee and Philly at 8-8 for the final playoff spot. Now *that's* drama!
10. Philly. They look out of it at 5-7, but not so fast! Their upsets of Tennessee and ATKM have put them in a great spot to end 8-8. They have to hope that Chico loses a game that they shouldn't, though, because of tiebreaker issues...or that they end in a 3-way tie with Tennessee and Chico, and can win the points battle, which I am too lazy to look up.
Relegation!
While obviously Bedlam will be leaving us, we will also lose a 3-13 team. Pittsburgh and Mendoza (due to their recent upset! well done) look to be safe, finishing at least 4-12...but Paris plays Bedlam (a win) and then also the Affliction and Detroit here in the last 4 weeks. Paris could pull away and end 5-11, but they could also end 3-13 and leave the Pro leagues.
I see the wk 16 detroit - Paris showdown as being a big one, determining who stays and who goes. Obviously neither team is competitive for the title or even the playoffs, but these are not horrible teams...both of these teams have pulled an upset over a much higher ranked team this year. This is not like losing 2 CPU teams...a legitimately solid team will be leaving us, whether it's Paris, Detroit, or Atlanta.
