A peewee agent had asked me for some help on his offense, so I attempted to explain something EDB had once explained to me, of course my understanding of it at this point was clearly incoherent and the agent of course responded with questions, since I had already given the explanation my all I called upon the mastermind (and yes, I mean this in the most facetious way imaginable) himself who stepped in on my behalf.
After of course reading the PM myself, I figured I'd share it, I do think it has value and may be helpful to a few of you out there.
Disclaimer: You do have to understand a few basic algebra concepts, such as the definition and use of variables.
If you have any questions I'm sure I could help, if not I'm sure I could drag him to the keyboard again if need be.
PM: (Also quick note when defining your variables it was previously understood that EDB was only referring to RUN plays yard per carry, he does not recommend including any play not expected to be in your "Run" package, as EDB suggest only to have the 2 packages ("Pass" the other), which you could split up as much as you want)
Apparently I explained it wrong, I'm just going to let EDB explain it:
HI
He forgot a few very important things.
x= Projected Yards Per Carry
*Use the scouting tool and select the 3 most recent yet relevant games in the "Defensive Scouting" tab. Now go in and get the Avg for every play that is in your offensive playbook, exclude all anomaly plays as they will skew the results. I would also suggest eliminating any outlier Avgs and consider the either elimination of those plays (say a Goalline play averages -2 yards, clearly you won't run that play this game so don't include its average in the results). Once you have the Avgs take the average of course and that number is your "x" factor.
y= Expected Yards Per Carry
*Essentially, watch some games, study the team and this is what YOU feel your team is honestly going to average per carry, you will also learn to know how to set this value to see different style of play when the formula is applied to the inputs.
** If your y value is actually higher than your x value then flip flop the two values before filling them in.
IMPORTANT:
z= 4th Down Go For It
With how many yards to go are you willing to go for it on 4th Down (You can override this in some areas of the field, but I would recommend having an entire other set of these same inputs devoted to that area of the field to avoid giving up on drives in the red zone/inside your own 10 because you intend to punt earlier than your offense is set for). Do not include special situations into consideration. I recommend going for it very often, and my z factor is always the same as my y factor, punting rarely gains more than 15 yards of field position and honestly gives up touchdowns too often, so I really go for it on 4th down if I feel my offense is capable of running it in.
Inputs:
1st Down
This is going to just be the basic run/pass ratio that you want your team to ultimately run, as first down is your most frequently played down this is the easiest way to implement any gimmicky gameplan that you want to implement, as well as a way to skew run/pass ratio for counter scouting.
Suggested: 85% Run / 15% Pass
[When I say Pass, I mean scouted big plays, I generally just include scouted outside runs in my "Run" package since I won't run them unless I'm quite sure of them, but if you want to run a play in the &long situations it should be included, also if you have plays specifically for VERY long situations, I suggest implementing those as well, and it is okay to also include some extremely high percentage pass plays in the run package if you are more of a pass focused team.]
2nd Down
Between 0 and 2y+z Yards to go (2y as in 2 times the "y" factor's value + z as in add the "z" factor's value)
This means you are in range of being able to run the ball the remaining downs and get a first down, thus you would want to play to this by running the ball as to not risk a sack or even just the loss of a down via dropped passes.
Suggested: 90% Run / 10% Pass
Between 2y+z and 2x+z Yards to go
This means you are not well behind pace and your running game is still a valid option particularly in the earlier downs.
Suggested: 80% Run / 20% Pass
Over 2x+z Yards to go
Once you are statistically out of pound it out range you must NOT run the ball or you'll find yourself passing on 3rd and long all the time and ending your drives early and often.
Suggested: 100% Pass
3rd Down
Between 0 and y+z Yards to go
Suggested: 95% Run / 5% Pass
Between y+z and x+z Yards to go
Suggested: 70% Run / 30% Pass
Over x+z Yards to go
Suggested: 100% Pass
4th Down
You must go for it! If you don't go for it within your Z range as must as possible your offense will be playing practically blindly, so be HONEST with your z factor.
After of course reading the PM myself, I figured I'd share it, I do think it has value and may be helpful to a few of you out there.
Disclaimer: You do have to understand a few basic algebra concepts, such as the definition and use of variables.
If you have any questions I'm sure I could help, if not I'm sure I could drag him to the keyboard again if need be.
PM: (Also quick note when defining your variables it was previously understood that EDB was only referring to RUN plays yard per carry, he does not recommend including any play not expected to be in your "Run" package, as EDB suggest only to have the 2 packages ("Pass" the other), which you could split up as much as you want)
Apparently I explained it wrong, I'm just going to let EDB explain it:
HI
He forgot a few very important things.
x= Projected Yards Per Carry
*Use the scouting tool and select the 3 most recent yet relevant games in the "Defensive Scouting" tab. Now go in and get the Avg for every play that is in your offensive playbook, exclude all anomaly plays as they will skew the results. I would also suggest eliminating any outlier Avgs and consider the either elimination of those plays (say a Goalline play averages -2 yards, clearly you won't run that play this game so don't include its average in the results). Once you have the Avgs take the average of course and that number is your "x" factor.
y= Expected Yards Per Carry
*Essentially, watch some games, study the team and this is what YOU feel your team is honestly going to average per carry, you will also learn to know how to set this value to see different style of play when the formula is applied to the inputs.
** If your y value is actually higher than your x value then flip flop the two values before filling them in.
IMPORTANT:
z= 4th Down Go For It
With how many yards to go are you willing to go for it on 4th Down (You can override this in some areas of the field, but I would recommend having an entire other set of these same inputs devoted to that area of the field to avoid giving up on drives in the red zone/inside your own 10 because you intend to punt earlier than your offense is set for). Do not include special situations into consideration. I recommend going for it very often, and my z factor is always the same as my y factor, punting rarely gains more than 15 yards of field position and honestly gives up touchdowns too often, so I really go for it on 4th down if I feel my offense is capable of running it in.
Inputs:
1st Down
This is going to just be the basic run/pass ratio that you want your team to ultimately run, as first down is your most frequently played down this is the easiest way to implement any gimmicky gameplan that you want to implement, as well as a way to skew run/pass ratio for counter scouting.
Suggested: 85% Run / 15% Pass
[When I say Pass, I mean scouted big plays, I generally just include scouted outside runs in my "Run" package since I won't run them unless I'm quite sure of them, but if you want to run a play in the &long situations it should be included, also if you have plays specifically for VERY long situations, I suggest implementing those as well, and it is okay to also include some extremely high percentage pass plays in the run package if you are more of a pass focused team.]
2nd Down
Between 0 and 2y+z Yards to go (2y as in 2 times the "y" factor's value + z as in add the "z" factor's value)
This means you are in range of being able to run the ball the remaining downs and get a first down, thus you would want to play to this by running the ball as to not risk a sack or even just the loss of a down via dropped passes.
Suggested: 90% Run / 10% Pass
Between 2y+z and 2x+z Yards to go
This means you are not well behind pace and your running game is still a valid option particularly in the earlier downs.
Suggested: 80% Run / 20% Pass
Over 2x+z Yards to go
Once you are statistically out of pound it out range you must NOT run the ball or you'll find yourself passing on 3rd and long all the time and ending your drives early and often.
Suggested: 100% Pass
3rd Down
Between 0 and y+z Yards to go
Suggested: 95% Run / 5% Pass
Between y+z and x+z Yards to go
Suggested: 70% Run / 30% Pass
Over x+z Yards to go
Suggested: 100% Pass
4th Down
You must go for it! If you don't go for it within your Z range as must as possible your offense will be playing practically blindly, so be HONEST with your z factor.
Edited by Stoner DTD on Sep 29, 2010 08:44:34
Edited by Stoner DTD on Sep 29, 2010 08:41:15






























