Warrior General Games

I'm pretty busy at the moment, so I'll just add to this as I go...

First time doing this type of analysis, so if I'm wrong about something, let me know and I'll correct the OP.

1. PDP- 13-1
Remaining Games: Manila (9-5) and Winona (9-5)
Tiebreakers: lost to Garudas (only relevant tiebreaker)
Summary:Clinched playoff birth; Can clinch 1st place with a win or Krungthep loss
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 2nd

2. Garudas- 11-3
Remaining Games: Bali (5-9) and Rangoon (6-8)
Tiebreakers: wins over PDP, CMM, Manila and the Monks; loss to Winona
Summary:Clinched playoff birth
Best possible finish: 1st (needs to win out and have PDP lose both games)
Worst possible finish: 4th (if they lose both games, and CMM and Winona win out)

3. CMM- 10-4
Remaining Games: Ujung (8-6) and Bacolod (3-11)
Tiebreakers: Wins over Manila, Winona, Monks; Loss to BBD
Summary:Clinched playoff birth;
Best possible finish: 2nd
Worst possible finish: 7th

4. Manila- 9-5
Remaining Games: PDP (13-1) and BDD (8-6)
Tiebreakers: Wins over ANL, Mekong, Monks; Losses to Garudas, CMM, Winona, Ujung
Summary:Clinched playoff birth** (actually, could wind up in a 9-7 fustercluck and I haven't run all the numbers yet)
Best possible finish: 3rd
Worst possible finish: 8th

5. Winona- 9-5
Remaining Games: Surabaya (4-10) and PDP (13-1)
Tiebreakers: Wins over Garudas, ANL, Mekong, Manila; Losses to Monks, Ujung, CMM
Summary:Clinched playoff birth** (actually, could wind up in a 9-7 fustercluck and I haven't run all the numbers yet)
Best possible finish: 2nd
Worst possible finish: 8th

6. Monks- 9-5
Remaining Games: Da Nang (1-13) and Surabaya (4-10)
Tiebreakers: Wins over ANL, Winona, Ujung, BBD; Losses to Garudas, Manila, Mekong, CMM
Summary:Can clinch playoff spot with a win and Mekong loss
Best possible finish: 3rd
Worst possible finish: 9th

7. BDD- 8-6
Remaining Games: Bacolod (3-11) and Manila (9-5)
Tiebreakers: Wins over Winona, CMM, Mekong, Ujung; Losses to Monks, ANL, Rangoon
Summary:Control their own destiny…three scenarios:
(a) win both and they’re in;
(b) go 1-1, it gets more complicated…they’re in if Ujung also goes 1-1 (holds tiebreaker over Ujung and Mekong); if Ujung goes 2-0, then BDD misses out if ANL wins a game
(c) go 0-2, it gets bleak…if Ujung goes 2-0 or 1-1, they would need ANL to lose both games AND Mekong and Rangoon to lose at least one game each
Best possible finish: 3rd
Worst possible finish: 9th

8. Ujung- 8-6
Remaining Games: CMM (10-4) and Tongduchon (1-13)
Tiebreakers: Wins over Manila, Garudas, Mekong, ANL, Winona; Losses to Rangoon, Monks, BBD
Summary: Sittin pretty good…two scenarios:
(a) since they have the tiebreakers over both Mekong and ANL, they’re in with at least one win (and have Tonduchon left to play);
(b) go 0-2, they’re still in unless ANL or Mekong goes 2-0; However, if ANL goes 1-1 and BDD goes 0-2, we’d have to resort to the points scored tiebreaker
Best possible finish: 3rd
Worst possible finish: 9th


NOTE: I'm lumping ANL and Mekong together because their "summary" wound up being ridiculous....just too many scenarios left to play out


9. ANL- 7-7
Remaining Games: Rangoon (6-8) and DaNang (1-13)
Tiebreakers: Wins over Mekong, BDD; Losses to Manila, Winona, Monks, Ujung

10. Mekong- 7-7
Remaining Games: Tongduchon (1-13) and Bali (5-9)
Tiebreakers: Wins over Monks; Losses to Manila, Winona, ANL, Ujung, BBD

Thanks Joe!

I used to do this a lot, can make a run at it. (wont be detailed till i get home and can crunch TB scenarios)

PDP has 1st & 2nd rd home games clinched, needs win OR tie OR Garudas lose or tie to clinch champ.

Garudas have playoff berth clinched, can clinch 1st rd home game w/ win OR tie OR CMM lose OR Winona lose or tie, can clinch 2nd rd home game w/ win and CMM lose or tie OR tie and CMM lose

CMM have playoff berth clinched, can clinch 1st rd home game w/ win OR tie and Manila and Palembang lose or tie OR tie and Winona loses OR Manila and Palembang lose

Manila can clinch playoff berth w/ win OR tie OR

Winona

Palembang

working on all tiebreakers for these three right now.

+1

SEAPL needs moar of these kinda threads!

yea we clinched a playoff spot

updated through the 9-5 teams...going to get a little more complicated now.

also, please note that the "best case" and "worst case" scenarios aren't necessarily the expected or most likely scenarios.

added BDD and Ujung....

I can imagine that both Winona and Manila are going to "bring it" when they face PDP, but unless both of them pull off the upsets, the Dirty Penguins have No.1 locked up.

The Garudas look to have an easy road to 13-3 -- but then again, nothing is THAT easy in Naga unless you're playing Da Nang or Tongduchon. But again, none of this matters unless the Penguins lose twice and Garudas win twice. Otherwise Krungthep has No. 2 locked up tight.

Cambodia can take home the No. 3 seed with a win against either Bacolod or Ujung. Obviously, it would take quite an upset for the Mountain Men to fall to Bacolod, but Ujung is a different matter altogether. So if you figure at least one win for CMM, the Mountain Men are your No. 3 seed because they own the tiebreakers against all the 9-5 teams.

No. 4 is where it gets tricky. Palembang has by far the easiest schedule of the three 9-5 teams and is almost a lock to win both games. Both Winona and Manila still have the Penguins, but Manila also has a tricky game left against Beijing. If Winona steals the upset against the Penguins, they still don't have the tiebreaker against Palembang. If Manila wins both games, they do have the tiebreaker against Palembang. But if all three teams win out, then it goes to H-2-H, where it's a complete wash. They're 1-1 against each other and all three lost to Cambodia, so it doesn't even matter if CMM is in the mix or not. It will then come down to points scored, which will fluctuate a lot because of the disparity in quality of competition over the last two games. I give the slight edge to Palembang here because of strength of schedule remaining.

The rest is a clusterfuck that we won't be able to put a finger on until after Game 15

Can I borrow a calculator or something.

What a mess.

haole is pointing out the difficulties in trying to predict each team's finishing position. at this point, i'm just focusing on what each team has to do to get in. after week 15, it will be easier to predict each team's finishing spot.

lol i think mekong takes the 8 seed as they have both bali and tong duchon on their sched

i started re-thinking manila and winona....i think both are in no matter what, but there could wind up being a huge fustercluck at 9-7 and i haven't ran through all the numbers.

Originally posted by g-bay-be
lol i think mekong takes the 8 seed as they have both bali and tong duchon on their sched

I definitely have Mekong finishing 9-7....the problem is that of the other teams that could possibly finish 9-7, the only one that Mekong would have a head-to-head tiebreaker over is the Monks. Mekong really needs one of two scenarios: (a) both ANL and Ujung go 0-2; or (b) either ANL or Ujung go 0-2 AND the Monks go 0-2.

or maybe i'm an idiot and doing all this wrong?

So.....I think we basically have three playoff spots up for grabs with the Monks, Ujung, BBD, ANL and Mekong fighting for those spots.

The Monks will almost certainly grab one as they already have 9 wins and their remaining opponents have combined for 5 wins.

So that really leaves two spots with four teams fighting for them:

BBD
Wins- 8
Wins of remaining opponents- 12
Record against other 3 teams- 2-1

Ujung
Wins- 8
Wins of remaining opponents- 11
Record against other 3 teams- 2-1

ANL
Wins- 7
Wins of remaining opponents- 7
Record against other 3 teams- 2-1

Mekong
Wins- 7
Wins of remaining opponents- 6
Record against other 3 teams- 0-3

Originally posted by Joe Boo
I definitely have Mekong finishing 9-7....the problem is that of the other teams that could possibly finish 9-7, the only one that Mekong would have a head-to-head tiebreaker over is the Monks. Mekong really needs one of two scenarios: (a) both ANL and Ujung go 0-2; or (b) either ANL or Ujung go 0-2 AND the Monks go 0-2.

or maybe i'm an idiot and doing all this wrong?



yeah, at this point, mekong's playoff hopes are out of their hands. they have losses vs. all the wrong teams. ANL will get in before they do. Serves them right for trying to exploit us.