Warrior General Games

As per the most recent announcements: http://goallineblitz.com/game/announcement.pl?id=224

"Possession receiver" has been modified to help battle knocked loose balls, and "nerves of steel" has been added.

-Bort has confirmed that Possession receivers's battling of knocked loose passes take effect on all passes (not just those of 8 yards or less). http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=3129896&page=3#27003707

So I figured I'd take a look at our receivers and do a little math as to their effects...

In order to find how often a receiver will avoid a KL drop with "nerves of steel" you need to do:

(Chance of avoiding KL normally when catching the ball) + (chance of getting the ball KLed)*(.75 for the chance of the VA firing with 15 in it)*(chance of normally avoiding a KL)

Examples....

Joe Monk

Last season he had 96 catches and ~20 KL drops. Hence his chance of avoiding a KL after a "catch" but not complete catch is 96/116= 82.8% So....

.828+.172*.75*.828 = .935 Which is 93.5% chance of avoiding a KL once you have the ball. Since .172 resulted in 20 drops, .065 wold result in 7.55 ~ 8 drops. Hence, 15 in nerves of steel would have saved hm 12 drops last season.

Trevor McNight
56 catches, 8 KL drops last season. So 56/64= .875

.875+.125*.75*.875 = 95.7% so he would have only KL-dropped 2.75~3 balls so he would have saved 5 drops with 15 in the reroll VA.

Dirty Hairy
76 catches, 6 KL drops last season. so 76/82= .927

.927+.073+.75+.927= .977 aka 97.7% chance to avoid KL drop. so .073 is to 6 drops as .033 is to 2.7~3 drops, so 15 nerves would have saved him 3 drops last season.

Aleksandr Krzysztof
21 catches, 9 KL drops last season. so 21/30=.7

.7+.7*.75*.3=.857 = 85.7%. .3 is to 9 as .143 is to 4.29~4 KL drops so 15 in nerves would have cut his drops from 9 to 4 last season.

The point of all this

The point is that we need to ask ourselves, whether a +30% buffer to our anti KL roll (multiplying what our roll would be by 1.3) is more or less beneficial than pumping 15 into the nerves re-roll. As a very general rule, Nerves will about cut your knocked loose drops in half, but it won't do much more for you. That 30% buffer itself basically cancels out most of jackhammer, and gives you a shot at either exceeding or not meeting the results of nerves.

I suppose this is a question we must all ask ourselves, but my advice is to avoid the sexiness of nerves of steel, and instead invest in possession receiver. If as this season goes in your still seeing a big KL problem, I'd then start investing points into nerves as well. Though of course, in the end it is each receivers call.

The above was written for my teams players, but I figured a discussion will help you all as well. If you disagree with my math feel free to discuss it. I do not believe that possession receiver is a 100% clear winner since I have no ability to get evidence for it, but my gut tells me it will be more beneficial in the vast majority of cases.

wheres the math for possesion receiver?

nvm, too tired staying up late to figure this out, re-read your post.

Well, last season I didn't have much drops. Hopefully, I won't need to change my VA's next season to NoS or Poss Receiver.

I agree that Possession Receiver is probably better. Factor in "Possession Receiver" battling of knocked loose passes takes effect on ALL pass lengths and it's even more superb.

To gain max benefit, if OC's know what's good for them, EVERY team should use custom WR slots. In my opinion, if they dont, that's just plain laziness. Custom slots are crucial to isolating your possession receivers on the routes you want, otherwise the sim will throw "Poss. Receiver" VA players into long routes, compromising the effectiveness of the catching bonus. For example...

Overload (Single Back) - Put your possession guys at WR3
http://goallineblitz.com/images/plays/74.gif

Under Swing (Single Back) - Put your possession guys at WR3
http://goallineblitz.com/images/plays/194.gif

Curls Left (Single Back) - Put your possession guys at WR1
http://goallineblitz.com/images/plays/68.gif

... etc.

Of course, pick pass plays that all share common short routes with one WR slot.

Originally posted by big10fan
wheres the math for possesion receiver?

nvm, too tired staying up late to figure this out, re-read your post.

No math for possession receiver because I have no base rolls to work off of. Many people errantly think +25% break tackle roll means you just multiple your current broken tackles by 125% and thats how many you'll get. This is an extremely inaccurate way to do things, as your roll is being modified which variable but is consitantly compared to a defenders roll. Its possible to have +25% break tackle piece equipped and double your broken tackles, just as its possible to equip the same piece and only break 3% more tackles.

*obviously I know we're talking about avoiding knocked loose balls, but the concept is the same*

Originally posted by WiSeIVIaN
No math for possession receiver because I have no base rolls to work off of. Many people errantly think +25% break tackle roll means you just multiple your current broken tackles by 125% and thats how many you'll get. This is an extremely inaccurate way to do things, as your roll is being modified which variable but is consitantly compared to a defenders roll. Its possible to have +25% break tackle piece equipped and double your broken tackles, just as its possible to equip the same piece and only break 3% more tackles.

*obviously I know we're talking about avoiding knocked loose balls, but the concept is the same*

Your the first one that i've seen post, that gets the concept of the modifiers.

IMO< possession receiver is way better, but if your a gambler,
it may be worth putting a few (2-7) points in NoS, like the other VAs with similiar effect, they don't get better with more points, just have a higher chance of activating.

For a very cheap cost of only a few VA points, it could come in handy at the right time, when you get lucky.

Mr. Reliable and Possession receiver stack, btw.

And then if you throw in the re-roll VA...


Of course, I had like 2 KL out of 65 catchable balls, so it doesn't seem very worth it for me.

Originally posted by RobertRJS
Mr. Reliable and Possession receiver stack, btw.

Yessir, though only on 3rd downs.

stop using math, you're making GLB confusing

Originally posted by WiSeIVIaN
Yessir, though only on 3rd downs.

and 4th down!

Possession Receiver just got a whole lot better. Sweet!

Originally posted by ReMeDy
I agree that Possession Receiver is probably better. Factor in "Possession Receiver" battling of knocked loose passes takes effect on ALL pass lengths and it's even more superb.

To gain max benefit, if OC's know what's good for them, EVERY team should use custom WR slots. In my opinion, if they dont, that's just plain laziness. Custom slots are crucial to isolating your possession receivers on the routes you want, otherwise the sim will throw "Poss. Receiver" VA players into long routes, compromising the effectiveness of the catching bonus. For example...

Overload (Single Back) - Put your possession guys at WR3
http://goallineblitz.com/images/plays/74.gif

Under Swing (Single Back) - Put your possession guys at WR3
http://goallineblitz.com/images/plays/194.gif

Curls Left (Single Back) - Put your possession guys at WR1
http://goallineblitz.com/images/plays/68.gif

... etc.

Of course, pick pass plays that all share common short routes with one WR slot.



+1. It amazes me how many people just let the sim randomly pick. I have WRs for certain things, some better blockers, some speed, some possession and I want them in the right place to make the play work otherwise I wold have them all the same.

Originally posted by davecais
Originally posted by ReMeDy

I agree that Possession Receiver is probably better. Factor in "Possession Receiver" battling of knocked loose passes takes effect on ALL pass lengths and it's even more superb.

To gain max benefit, if OC's know what's good for them, EVERY team should use custom WR slots. In my opinion, if they dont, that's just plain laziness. Custom slots are crucial to isolating your possession receivers on the routes you want, otherwise the sim will throw "Poss. Receiver" VA players into long routes, compromising the effectiveness of the catching bonus. For example...

Overload (Single Back) - Put your possession guys at WR3
http://goallineblitz.com/images/plays/74.gif

Under Swing (Single Back) - Put your possession guys at WR3
http://goallineblitz.com/images/plays/194.gif

Curls Left (Single Back) - Put your possession guys at WR1
http://goallineblitz.com/images/plays/68.gif

... etc.

Of course, pick pass plays that all share common short routes with one WR slot.



+1. It amazes me how many people just let the sim randomly pick. I have WRs for certain things, some better blockers, some speed, some possession and I want them in the right place to make the play work otherwise I wold have them all the same.

Maybe I'm not understanding what is being said but I don't have WRs in custom slots because many different plays have different types of routes and they don't all line up the same. WR #1's route isn't always best for a speed receiver, #2's route isn't always best for a possesion receiver, etc. Am I confused by what is being suggested or do you just gear your offense toward using plays that do line up for each kind of receiver? I thought about that but decided against it, too many good plays wouldn't fit in with it.

Originally posted by doubletree
Maybe I'm not understanding what is being said but I don't have WRs in custom slots because many different plays have different types of routes and they don't all line up the same. WR #1's route isn't always best for a speed receiver, #2's route isn't always best for a possesion receiver, etc. Am I confused by what is being suggested or do you just gear your offense toward using plays that do line up for each kind of receiver? I thought about that but decided against it, too many good plays wouldn't fit in with it.



I'm curious too (my possession receiver's team doesn't use slots). If you use WR slots doesn't your opponent then have the ability to match CBs up to your players?