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Forum > Position Talk > WR Club > Underdog/Awe Inspiring combo
Fumblerooski
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A lot of people on this forum advocate have been advocating taking this VA combo lately, and with the VA point reset I've been thinking about it a lot as well. However, the more napkin math I do the worse they seem.

My guy is level 35 right now and has 10 veteran points. If I put all 10 into underdog (he's in an uncapped league and less famous than most of the CBs there), he'll have a 50% chance of causing the opposing CB to have -20% vision per play where there is man to man coverage. Lets say that the average CB he lines up against at that level has 50-60 vision. That means a 10-12 point decrease in vision when Underdog fires. So, on average, assuming the CB is more famous he'll be reduced by an average of 5-6 vision points per man to man coverage play.

One argument for the Underdog/Awe Inspiring combo is that putting all your eggs in one basket is rewarded as a WR. You can be crappy with your rolls for several plays, just waiting for that one play where Head Fake and Underdog both fire, which could very well lead to a touchdown. Being exceptional some of the time is better than being above average all the time for a WR. Anyway, would be interested in hearing thoughts or criticisms of this analysis and the assumptions I made.

Edit - Removed a paragraph with bad math, you can read it in the post below!
Edited by Fumblerooski on Jun 15, 2009 00:35:49
Edited by Fumblerooski on Jun 15, 2009 00:19:07
Edited by Fumblerooski on Jun 15, 2009 00:17:03
 
doubletree
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Originally posted by Fumblerooski
A lot of people on this forum advocate have been advocating taking this VA combo lately, and with the VA point reset I've been thinking about it a lot as well. However, the more napkin math I do the worse they seem.

My guy is level 35 right now and has 10 veteran points. If I put all 10 into underdog (he's in an uncapped league and less famous than most of the CBs there), he'll have a 50% chance of causing the opposing CB to have -20% vision per play where there is man to man coverage. Lets say that the average CB he lines up against at that level has 50-60 vision. That means a 10-12 point decrease in vision when Underdog fires. So, on average, assuming the CB is more famous he'll be reduced by an average of 5-6 vision points per man to man coverage play.

If I put those 10 points into Quick instead, he'll get 20.946 points of agility every play (69.82 base agility * .03 * 10). That seems like it would be much more beneficial to causing more jukes and head fakes than the vision penalty, but vision and agility also factor into the pass catching formula in different ways as well. Is vision worth more for catching passes than agility? Who knows. Its also there on special teams, and it doesn't seem like Underdog could fire then (maybe somebody knows for sure?). It's GLB so course nobody really knows the formulas, but 20.9 all the time seems better to me than 10-12 part of the time. At higher levels the numbers get a little better, you'll have more VA points to spend and the CBs you're going against will have higher vision, but it still doesn't seem worth it.

One argument for the Underdog/Awe Inspiring combo is that putting all your eggs in one basket is rewarded as a WR. You can be crappy with your rolls for several plays, just waiting for that one play where Head Fake and Underdog both fire, which could very well lead to a touchdown. Being exceptional some of the time is better than being above average all the time for a WR. Anyway, would be interested in hearing thoughts or criticisms of this analysis and the assumptions I made.


You need a new napkin Getting quick will give you closer to 2.1, or if your math is right but just off, 2.0946. Depending on their level most CBs have 60-68+ so your looking at them losing 12-13.6 at least. Once I start investing in HF I plan on going the quick feet route though but that combo may be a good choice.
 
Fumblerooski
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20 did seems high. It's really 69.82 * .003 * 10, right?

Quick was just an example though, it still seems like you can find more bang for your buck elsewhere (like Quick Feet, as you mention).
Edited by Fumblerooski on Jun 15, 2009 00:40:08
 
Blamo
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Considering that vision is arguably the second most important attribute for a CB, I'd say a 20% hit is pretty important. That could cause them to fail a fake check (allowing HF or Juke to work), they could miss a vision check when the ball is thrown, off the line, or while the WR is making a cut, all potentially giving the WR separation to catch the ball.

Dunno, I don't know if it'd be above worth taking Quick Feet instead since we have very little idea as to how Head Fake and Juke work while running routes. If you're low leveled, however, it may be worth it to take Underdog for now, then start working on Quick Feet. And if you ever get to a point where you're more famous than anyone, you can just respec out of Underdog and into Awe Inspiring (or whatever else you want).
 
Worker 3
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it also helps negate the effects of ball hawk a little bit. the longer it takes the CB to see the ball thrown, the less time he is going to have with ball hawk active.
 


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