This conference is pretty much a clusterfuck right now, but I'm going to try to to sort it out and see who needs what to happen to get into the playoffs. The playoff likeliness score is just my opinion, based on current record, head to head tiebreakers, gutted teams left, and who I think will win the remaining games. It is based on a scale of 1-5.
1 Louisiana Screaming Pelicans 12-0-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Everyone
Real teams left on schedule: Hong Kong Hustlers, Three Kingdom Warriors
Gutted teams left on schedule: 2
Status: LSP has clinched the #1 seed in Garuda, and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Awendaw and Nintendo are automatic wins, and even if they were to somehow lose to the Hustlers and the Warriors, they would still hold the tie breaker over the Tweetys.
Playoff likeliness: Already Clinched.
2 Bangkok Tweetys 10-2-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Singapore, South Austin, Bangkok Lightning, Manila, Bali
Real teams left on schedule: 3 Kingdom Warriors, Hong Kong Highlanders, Semarang Red Bulls
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: Tweetys will finish w/ at least one win, and no more than 5 losses. A win over the hustlers last week would have clinched a playoff spot, but now in their worst case scenario, if they lose their 3 remaining nongut games, and if Hong Kong Hustlers and Bali win out, the Tweetys could be left out of the playoffs. Not a likely scenario, but there's an outside chance. A win over 3KW or a Hustler loss or Bali loss clinches a playoff spot.
Playoff likeliness: 4.5
3 Three Kingdom Warriors 8-4-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Hong Kong Highlanders, Semarang, Singapore, Bali
Real teams left on schedule: Bangkok Tweetys, Hong Kong Hustlers, Louisiana Screaming Pelicans
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: 3KW will finish w/ at least 9 wins, but they may not get any more than that. They still have to face the two top teams in the conference, plus a resurging Hustlers who just pulled off a huge upset last week. If they can't muster up at least one upset, they may be looking in on the playoffs from the outside w/ a 9-7 record.
Playoff likeliness: 3.5
4 Singapore Flames 8-4-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Hong Kong Hustlers, Hong Kong Highlanders, Semarang Red Bulls, South Austin Bats
Real teams left on schedule: Bangkok Lightning, Manila Warlords, Bali Waves
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: The Flames will finish w/ at least 9 wins, and with a somewhat favorable remaining schedule, have a good chance at winning out and getting a home game in the first round.
Playoff likeliness: 4
5 Bangkok Lightning 8-4-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Manila, Three Kingdom, Hong Kong Highlanders
Real teams left on schedule: Semarang Red Bulls, Singapore Flames, South Austin Bats
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: Unfortunately for the Lightning, they've lost to both of the teams that are one game behind them. So, a loss would most likely put them at the #9 spot. Also not helping is the fact that of all the other 8-4 teams, they only have the tie breaker over one. They are guaranteed one more win against a gutted team, and the remaining 3 games are winnable, but they could lose them just as easily.
Playoff likeliness: 3
6 Semarang Red Bulls 8-4-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Hong Kong Hustlers, South Austin Bats
Real teams left on schedule: Bangkok Lightning, Manila Warlords, Bali Waves, Bangkok Tweetys
Gutted teams left on schedule: 0
Status: After three straight games against gutted teams, the Red Bulls aren't guaranteed anything from here on out. A win over Bali will help them out, but they will still need to win at least one of the other games, which is doable.
Playoff likeliness: 3
7 South Austin Bats 8-4-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Bali, Hong Kong Hustlers, Three Kingdom, Hong Kong Highlanders
Real teams left on schedule: Bangkok Lightning, Manila Warlords
Gutted teams left on schedule: 2
Status: As it currently stands, South Austin is in last place among the 8-4 teams, as they have scored the fewest points. Luckily for them, they have two more gutted teams on their schedule to help them rack up some more points. Those 2 gutted teams also guarantees them 10 wins on the season. They've beaten the Warlords every year since entering the pros, and will look to beat their rival for a 3rd straight year. The Bats have a great shot at winning out the rest of the season.
Playoff likeliness: 4
8 Bali Waves 7-5-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Bangkok Lightning, Manila, Hong Kong Hustlers,
Real teams left on schedule: Hong Kong Highlanders, Semarang Red Bulls, Singapore Flames
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: Bali will finish at least at .500. They have their work cut out for them if they want to make the playoffs, but they have a good shot at beating the Highlanders, and perhaps even Semarang or Singapore. They're still alive for now, and beating the Hustlers earlier in the season may come in handy after week 16, getting them the last playoff spot.
Playoff likeliness: 2.5
9 Hong Kong Hustlers 7-5-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Bangkok Lightning, Bangkok Tweetys
Real teams left on schedule: Louisiana, Three Kingdom, Hong Kong Highlanders
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: This has been a disappointing season so far for the Hustlers, but their victory over the #2 Tweetys may be the start of their redemption. At the worst, they will finish at 8-8, which will most likely keep them out of the playoffs for the second straight season. However, they should at least win their season finale against their cross town rival. If they do so, and also can knock off either 3KW or LSP, they should be enjoying the postseason.
Playoff likeliness: 2
10 Hong Kong Highlanders 6-6-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Semarang Red Bulls, Manila
Real teams left on schedule: Bali, Bangkok Tweetys, Hong Kong Hustlers
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: Disappointment has been a reoccuring theme in the city of Hong Kong. The Highlanders will need a series of miracles to make the playoffs this season. Even if they beat 2 out of their remaining 3 contenders, they still may get shut out of the playoffs. Even winning out won't guarantee them a spot at this point. They are going to need some outside help.
Playoff likeliness: 1
11 Manila Warlords 6-6-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Hong Kong Hustlers, Three Kindgom
Real teams left on schedule: Semarang Red Bulls, Singapore Flames, South Austin Bats
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: The Warlords have been streaky this season. They won 3 straight, then lost 4 in a row, before wining another set of 3. After losing their last game, they should be releived to know that their next game is a lock. However, they'll need to keep that winning streak alive for the remainder of the season, as one more loss will end all hope of a postseason for the Warlords. They will finish the season w/ at least 7
Playoff likeliness: 1
1 Louisiana Screaming Pelicans 12-0-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Everyone
Real teams left on schedule: Hong Kong Hustlers, Three Kingdom Warriors
Gutted teams left on schedule: 2
Status: LSP has clinched the #1 seed in Garuda, and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Awendaw and Nintendo are automatic wins, and even if they were to somehow lose to the Hustlers and the Warriors, they would still hold the tie breaker over the Tweetys.
Playoff likeliness: Already Clinched.
2 Bangkok Tweetys 10-2-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Singapore, South Austin, Bangkok Lightning, Manila, Bali
Real teams left on schedule: 3 Kingdom Warriors, Hong Kong Highlanders, Semarang Red Bulls
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: Tweetys will finish w/ at least one win, and no more than 5 losses. A win over the hustlers last week would have clinched a playoff spot, but now in their worst case scenario, if they lose their 3 remaining nongut games, and if Hong Kong Hustlers and Bali win out, the Tweetys could be left out of the playoffs. Not a likely scenario, but there's an outside chance. A win over 3KW or a Hustler loss or Bali loss clinches a playoff spot.
Playoff likeliness: 4.5
3 Three Kingdom Warriors 8-4-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Hong Kong Highlanders, Semarang, Singapore, Bali
Real teams left on schedule: Bangkok Tweetys, Hong Kong Hustlers, Louisiana Screaming Pelicans
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: 3KW will finish w/ at least 9 wins, but they may not get any more than that. They still have to face the two top teams in the conference, plus a resurging Hustlers who just pulled off a huge upset last week. If they can't muster up at least one upset, they may be looking in on the playoffs from the outside w/ a 9-7 record.
Playoff likeliness: 3.5
4 Singapore Flames 8-4-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Hong Kong Hustlers, Hong Kong Highlanders, Semarang Red Bulls, South Austin Bats
Real teams left on schedule: Bangkok Lightning, Manila Warlords, Bali Waves
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: The Flames will finish w/ at least 9 wins, and with a somewhat favorable remaining schedule, have a good chance at winning out and getting a home game in the first round.
Playoff likeliness: 4
5 Bangkok Lightning 8-4-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Manila, Three Kingdom, Hong Kong Highlanders
Real teams left on schedule: Semarang Red Bulls, Singapore Flames, South Austin Bats
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: Unfortunately for the Lightning, they've lost to both of the teams that are one game behind them. So, a loss would most likely put them at the #9 spot. Also not helping is the fact that of all the other 8-4 teams, they only have the tie breaker over one. They are guaranteed one more win against a gutted team, and the remaining 3 games are winnable, but they could lose them just as easily.
Playoff likeliness: 3
6 Semarang Red Bulls 8-4-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Hong Kong Hustlers, South Austin Bats
Real teams left on schedule: Bangkok Lightning, Manila Warlords, Bali Waves, Bangkok Tweetys
Gutted teams left on schedule: 0
Status: After three straight games against gutted teams, the Red Bulls aren't guaranteed anything from here on out. A win over Bali will help them out, but they will still need to win at least one of the other games, which is doable.
Playoff likeliness: 3
7 South Austin Bats 8-4-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Bali, Hong Kong Hustlers, Three Kingdom, Hong Kong Highlanders
Real teams left on schedule: Bangkok Lightning, Manila Warlords
Gutted teams left on schedule: 2
Status: As it currently stands, South Austin is in last place among the 8-4 teams, as they have scored the fewest points. Luckily for them, they have two more gutted teams on their schedule to help them rack up some more points. Those 2 gutted teams also guarantees them 10 wins on the season. They've beaten the Warlords every year since entering the pros, and will look to beat their rival for a 3rd straight year. The Bats have a great shot at winning out the rest of the season.
Playoff likeliness: 4
8 Bali Waves 7-5-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Bangkok Lightning, Manila, Hong Kong Hustlers,
Real teams left on schedule: Hong Kong Highlanders, Semarang Red Bulls, Singapore Flames
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: Bali will finish at least at .500. They have their work cut out for them if they want to make the playoffs, but they have a good shot at beating the Highlanders, and perhaps even Semarang or Singapore. They're still alive for now, and beating the Hustlers earlier in the season may come in handy after week 16, getting them the last playoff spot.
Playoff likeliness: 2.5
9 Hong Kong Hustlers 7-5-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Bangkok Lightning, Bangkok Tweetys
Real teams left on schedule: Louisiana, Three Kingdom, Hong Kong Highlanders
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: This has been a disappointing season so far for the Hustlers, but their victory over the #2 Tweetys may be the start of their redemption. At the worst, they will finish at 8-8, which will most likely keep them out of the playoffs for the second straight season. However, they should at least win their season finale against their cross town rival. If they do so, and also can knock off either 3KW or LSP, they should be enjoying the postseason.
Playoff likeliness: 2
10 Hong Kong Highlanders 6-6-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Semarang Red Bulls, Manila
Real teams left on schedule: Bali, Bangkok Tweetys, Hong Kong Hustlers
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: Disappointment has been a reoccuring theme in the city of Hong Kong. The Highlanders will need a series of miracles to make the playoffs this season. Even if they beat 2 out of their remaining 3 contenders, they still may get shut out of the playoffs. Even winning out won't guarantee them a spot at this point. They are going to need some outside help.
Playoff likeliness: 1
11 Manila Warlords 6-6-0
Holds tie-breaker over: Hong Kong Hustlers, Three Kindgom
Real teams left on schedule: Semarang Red Bulls, Singapore Flames, South Austin Bats
Gutted teams left on schedule: 1
Status: The Warlords have been streaky this season. They won 3 straight, then lost 4 in a row, before wining another set of 3. After losing their last game, they should be releived to know that their next game is a lock. However, they'll need to keep that winning streak alive for the remainder of the season, as one more loss will end all hope of a postseason for the Warlords. They will finish the season w/ at least 7
Playoff likeliness: 1
Last edited Mar 21, 2009 11:58:21
