FAT DADDY CA$H’S CORNER: Week 5!
Season 6: Quarter Report:
I did a little something this week. We’ve reached the first quarter mark of the season and I thought it would be best to examine where teams are stacking up as far as the playoff picture is concerned.
I wanted to do something about the top players thus far, but I felt it was too early to really warrant that – especially since a handful of teams have inflated stats after playing Porto or the Swords.
The Rewind will be back next week!
FDC
Zeta Power Rankings: Week 5
1. Stockholm Meatballs (4-0)
Last Week: 1
The Meatballs manage to hold onto the top spot for one more week after dispatching the pesky Annihilators in what was a well-fought contest. While Mal Brown was held out of the end zone for the first time all year, new QB Gunn Slinger hooked up with WR Xaiver Rhodes 5 times for 116 yards and 1 TD. The bad news for Stockholm was that their much-vaulted defense was gashed for 421 yards, including a 70-yard TD scamper by HB Rick Fastley. With Suggs and Stephens up next, the Defense is going to need to step up their game if the Meatballs hope to retain the number 1 spot next week.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Pimps, Longnecks, Ballers, Lyon, Korb
Playoff Chances:
Locks. With the hardest part of their schedule ahead of them, it’s too early to break out the champagne, but an impressive 4-0 start should help them survive some setbacks down the road.
2. PPP Longnecks (4-0)
Last Week: 2
PPP did what they were supposed to against Porto – however they were the first team to allow Porto a TD. While the score didn’t mean much, it’s something we can make fun of them for nonetheless. A showdown with the Roughnecks kicks off a brutal three game stretch, which will test PPP and could cement their status as a top 4 club.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Rotterdam, Stockholm, Pimps, Berlin, Lyon
Playoff Chances:
Locks. The Longnecks have really only faced 1 top team this season. The good news is they beat ‘em. The bad news is that they have a brutal stretch remaining. Still, the way that they have looked early this season, there’s no reason to expect a slide. Look for PPP to get one of the top 4 seeds.
3. Rivals Mainboard Pimps (3-1)
Last Week: 3 (+1)
In an offensive showdown, the Pimps took care of business against Rotterdam, surviving a 28-point Roughneck 2nd quarter and 3 turnovers. Despite the sloppy play on both sides, the Pimps put it together when it mattered, shutting down the ‘Necks in the second half, outscoring them 31 to 7. HB Stephens had a brilliant day on the ground, rushing for 6.2 yards per carry and 5 TDs on just 21 touches. With both Stephens and Suggs playing terrific football and QB Pohl seemingly out of his early season rut, the Pimps will be looking to knock off Stockholm this week in what should be a terrific game.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Stockholm, PPP, Berlin, Sevilla, Lyon.
Playoff Chances:
Locks. With a lighter schedule remaining than PPP or Stockholm, the Pimps have a great shot to snatch at top 2 seed if they can find a way to beat at least one of those teams. Even if they drop both games, they would be in great position to steal a top 4 spot.
4. Berlin Ballers (4-0)
Last Week: 6 (+2)
Berlin’s 37 to 17 dismantling of the Destroyers was a clear announcement to the rest of WEPL that they are indeed for real. DT Sienna Miller had 7 tackles, 5 hurries and 3 sacks in what was a dominant team defensive performance. In total, the Ballers pass rush racked up 7 sacks, 11 hurries and forced 3 turnovers. Offensively the Ballers were not any less impressive as they piled up 183 yards rushing on one of Zeta’s elite rush defenses. While the second quarter schedule is considerably tougher for the Ballers, after a performance like this there is no reason to expect less than a 7-1 record at the half way point.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Roughnecks, Stockholm, Pimps, Longnecks, Sevilla
Playoff Chances:
Locks. Berlin will be in the playoffs this season, now it’s just a question of seeding. After the win over Korb it’s not out of the realm of possibility to be thinking of a 1 or 2 seed.
5. Korb Destroyers (2-2)
Last Week: 3 (-2)
I know I’m going to get grief for having a 2-2 team in the top 5 while excluding three 3-1 teams. My logic is simple: Korb, despite two loses, is still an elite team. They just have had a very tough draw to start the year, playing 3 of the top 4 teams to open. Escaping that gauntlet with a 1-2 record has taken some of the shine off their pre-season projections, but this is still a dangerous team who is capable of beating anyone in WEPL. Look for them to bounce back quickly.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Multiple, Sevilla, Lyon, Roughnecks, Stockholm
Playoff Chances:
Locks. While it may be premature to declare them a lock, I’m a gambler. With a much easier schedule remaining than any of the top 5 teams, I don’t expect Korb to fade down the stretch. If anything, they are liable to get stronger.
6. Lyon Dynasty (3-1)
Last Week: 8 (+2)
Lyon makes another big jump after dispatching Ice & Fire in a rather routine fashion. The win was a touch of redemption as the Dynasty got to avenge last season’s playoff upset. More importantly to the here-and-now, the win allows Lyon to keep up with Berlin and Sevilla for the right to be crowned the best rookie Zeta team.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Sevilla, Korb, Stockholm, Pimps, Longnecks
Playoff Chances:
90%. Since I feel 5 teams are locks for the Playoffs already, that leaves 11 teams fighting for the last three spots. Lyon has a brutal schedule remaining, but they are 1-1 against top competition this season (Woodridge and Berlin) meaning they have the chops to go 3-2 in those 5 games.
7. Sevilla Naranjas (3-1)
Last Week: 9 (+2)
For the second straight week the Naranjas knocked off a veteran Zeta club whom many predicted to be in the playoffs in Season 6. The Naranjas dominated offensively as they racked up 510 yards against the Scorgasm defense while giving up only 63 yards on the ground themselves.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Korb, Stockholm, Pimps, Longnecks, Berlin
Playoff Chances:
80%. Sevilla has acquitted themselves nicely over the past two weeks but they have yet to play one of the top 5 teams, meaning it might be a bit too early to pop the champagne. Still, if their offense keeps putting up yards in bunches, they will be in the playoffs this season.
8. Multiple Scorgasms (3-1)
Last Week: 5 (-3)
Multiple didn’t look sharp against the Naranjas in their first loss of the season. The Scorgasms opted to abandon the running game early (just 17 attempts for 63 yards) and allowed Sevilla to dominate the time of possession battle, especially in the 4th quarter where they held the ball for almost 13 minutes. As good as QB McMahon has been, Multiple cannot afford to become one dimensional on offense as the season wears on, especially when they face top rushing teams such as Stockholm, Korb and the Pimps. With Black Forest up next, Multiple has a chance to get healthy on offense before their showdown with Lyon.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Korb, Stockholm, Pimps, Longnecks, Berlin
Playoff Chances:
80%. Multiple finds themselves in the same boat as Sevilla as the toughest games on their schedule lie ahead. If you factor in the Lyon and Rotterdam games also left on their schedule and Multiple is facing a brutal 7 game stretch in the final three quarters of the season. One loss is no reason to hit the panic button, but anything less than a 3-1 stretch over the next 4 games might be cause for alarm.
9. Rotterdam Roughnecks (2-2)
Last Wee: 7 (-2)
Back to back loses to the Meatballs and Pimps have knocked the Roughnecks out of the Top 8 for the first time all year. An argument can be made that they belong ahead of Multiple even with 1 more loss based on strength of schedule, but I can’t rank a team with a defense that has surrendered 933 yards in the last two games any higher than 9. The Roughnecks can clearly score on anyone as their 42 points against the Pimps demonstrated, but until they can fix their problems on defense, this team is going to have a hard time stringing together sustained winning streaks.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Longnecks, Berlin, Sevilla, Lyon, Korb
Playoff Chances:
75%. I still believe Rotterdam to be one of the most talented teams in Zeta and they have already faced 2 of the top 5 teams making their closing schedule softer than all the teams ranked above them with the possible exception of Korb. But they still need to prove to themselves and the Conference that they can defeat a top team. Going 3-2 or 4-1 in that 5 game stretch would lock up a playoff birth for the Roughnecks as well as erase any lingering doubts.
10. Reykjavik Aggies (2-2)
Last Week: 11 (+1)
The Aggies found their groove offensively against the struggling BMF this past week. Racking up 600 yards of offense and 42 points should help restore some of the Aggies’ pre-season swagger. With a huge match-up against Lyon in front of them, the Aggies are going to need all the swagger they can muster.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Korb, Stockholm, Pimps, Longnecks, Berlin
Playoff Chances:
65%. The Aggies are 0-2 when facing top 8 clubs so far this season, and with all the top 5 teams left on the schedule, the Aggies’ backs are against the wall. With 2 loses already, Reykjavik cannot afford to lose many more games, meaning they’ll have to go at least 8-4 down the stretch which is a tall order though not out of reach.
11. ATOIAF (2-2)
Last Week: 10 (-1)
Ice & Fire were manhandled by the Dynasty in Week 4, surrendering 397 yards on the ground while their offense turned the ball over 3 times. The disappointing loss drops Ice & Fire to 0-2 on the season against top 10 teams, keeping them cemented into the bottom tier of the Power Rankings. Ice & Fire will have to bounce back fast against a steadily improving Musketeer team and try to gain some momentum before their match-up with the Destroyers in Week 6.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Korb, Stockholm, Pimps, Longnecks, Berlin
Playoff Chances:
40%. Ice & Fire still remains in the “twilight” category for these rankings as they’re only wins have come at the expense of the struggling Black Forest and Toledo Swords (prior to them folding). With two losses already, the margin for error is slim and Ice & Fire is going to need to pull of 2 or 3 big upsets to make a serious run at the playoffs. While it’s not out of the realm of possibility, it’s not very likely either.
12. Antwerp Annihilators (1-3)
Last Week: 12
Antwerp dropped their third loss in a row, this time to the Meatballs. The good news is the Annihilators seem to be rounding a corner as they looked impressive at times against the Meat, especially on offense where they racked up close to 450 yards against what was thought to be one of Zeta’s better defenses. Defensively, Antwerp held Mal Brown out of the end zone and frustrated the Stockholm running game. These are positive signs for a team who faces a much softer schedule down the stretch.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Pimps, Longnecks, Dynasty, Berlin, Korb
Playoff Chances:
65%. A three game losing streak is a grim way to start the season. However, with the talent on Antwerp’s roster, there is no reason to count them out of the playoff race just yet. In fact, with three of the tougher opponents already behind them, the schedule lines up very nicely for a late season playoff push. However, the Annihilators still need to prove they can beat a top team before anyone will give them their due. Their first opportunity will come against their long time rivals, the Pimps, in Week 6.
13. Paris Musketeers (1-3)
Last Week: 13
In perhaps the most thrilling game no one watched, Paris QB Ace Rivers was the hero as his last second TD pass to Terrell Owens capped a come-from-behind victory against the UK Patriots. The win is the first of the year for the Musketeers and hopefully is a sign of more to come. The Musketeers still struggled to run the ball with their star HB Nolan Akers (8 carries for 40 yards), but the with Ace Rivers coming of age there is reason to be optimistic in Paris.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Sevilla, Dynasty, Korb, Stockholm, Pimps
Playoff Chances:
10%. The playoffs are a long shot for this club that is in the midst of a re-tooling (I won’t call it rebuilding). I won’t close the door on anyone this early in the season (but for Porto and Toledo), but it will take a massive turnaround, as well as a 4-1 or even 5-0 stretch against those remaining teams for Paris to get back into the race.
14. Black Forest Mercenaries (1-3)
Last Week: 14
The Black Forest defense once again struggled, this time against the Aggies who tuned them up for 42 points and 600 yards of offense. The offense wasn’t much better, punting 7 times and only amassing 28 yards on the ground. The key for BMF the rest of the season will be trying to find balance on both offense and defense. There is plenty of talent on the roster to compete and they shouldn’t have to worry about relegation unless there is a massive collapse, but before they can think about the playoffs, they have to sort out their issues on both sides of the ball.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Korb, Stockholm, Longnecks, Pimps, Berlin
Playoff Chances:
5%. Unlike Paris, the Mercs have all 8 top teams left on their schedule meaning the season could get even uglier if things don’t change on defense fast. The playoffs are a real long shot at this point. While it’s too early to pack it in, the Mercs would be doing themselves a favor by focusing on fixing the problems for Season 7.
15. UK Patriots (0-4)
Last Week: 15
The Patriots played Paris tough in Week 4 and came within 38 seconds of their first win. The heartbreaking loss is a tough pill to swallow for a team so desperate for a win. The good news is that the defense did look improved against Paris as they forced 2 INTs and held the Musketeers to under 400 yards (the first time the defense has done that all season). The Patriots are fighting for their lives as far as relegation goes, but if they continue to make strides on defense they will give themselves a shot to make some noise in Zeta before the year’s out.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Korb, Stockholm, Longnecks, Pimps, Berlin
Playoff Chances:
1%. I’m keeping the door slightly open since it is only Week 5. The reality of the situation though is that the Patriots are now playing more to avoid relegation than they are for a shot at the playoffs. The rest of the schedule is brutal for the Pats and it’s going to take several huge upsets as well as a couple big BMF loses for the Pats to have a fighting chance.
16. Porto Reconquistas (0-4)
Last Week: 16
Porto will be here all year folks … be sure to tip your waitress and try the veal!
Alpha Power Rankings: Week 5
1. London Monarchs (4-0)
Last Week: 1
Finally the Game of the Week lives up to they hype as the Monarchs and Black Watch battled it out in what was a high scoring affair. The Monarchs won 54-42 behind the strength of their two talented HBs who chewed up the BW defense for 260 yards and 2 TDs between them. While neither defense was able to put up much of a fight (1,147 yards combined for both clubs), the Monarchs’ win puts them in great position to lock up the top seed early in the year.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Woodridge, Minotaurs, Stuttgart, Paris, Wembley
Playoff Chances:
Locks. The win over the Black Watch cemented what we already knew: The Monarchs are the team to beat in Alpha this season. With Black Watch behind them, and Woodridge up next, London has one of the most favorable remaining schedules of the top 4 teams, making them the odds on favorites to win the top seed.
2. Paris Philharmonic (3-1)
Last Week: 3 (+1)
Paris jumps ahead of Black Watch this week in what will sure to be a controversial decision. The Philharmonic dispatched the Red Bandits 45-14 in their third straight win. The quick turnaround for the Philharmonics has been impressive as they are suddenly playing very well on both sides of the ball. With games against Carthage and Chicago up next, Paris has even more time to sharpen their knives for their Week 7 showdown with Black Watch.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Black Watch, Wembley, Monarchs, Woodridge, Minotaurs
Playoff Chances:
Locks. Paris’s impressive rebound from their Week 1 disaster has not only moved them into the number 2 spot, but has also made it quite clear they will once again be in the playoffs in Season 6. However, since they have yet to face any of the other top 5 teams, it’s unclear whether they are a top 4 seed or a bottom 4 seed. Time will tell.
3. Black Watch (3-1)
Last Week: 2 (-1)
While there’s no shame in losing to the top team in the Conference, it’s still a set back for a club that had been playing near perfect football for the first 3 weeks of the season. The loss, while exciting, certainly raises questions about the Black Watch defense. Are they as vulnerable as they appeared? Or did the skewed stats have more to do with how good the Monarchs’ offense is? We will find out quickly as BW faces Woodridge and Paris over the next three weeks.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Woodridge, Paris, Minotaurs, Wembley, Stuttgart
Playoff Chances:
Locks. Black Watch has an edge on Paris at the moment based on strength of schedule down the stretch. The week 7 match-up between those two clubs could very well determine which one gets a top 2 seed. Regardless, it would take a disaster of epic proportions for BW to fall out of the top 4 by playoff time.
4. Woodridge Lumberjacks (3-1)
Last Week: 4
Woodridge won again. This time it was a one-sided whoopin’ delivered to the Lake Charles Who Dats by the score of 54-17. Woodridge dominated Lake Charles in every phase of the game as they did not turn the ball over and never had to punt even once. I was tempted to bump Woodridge back up to 2 this week, but couldn’t justify dropping Black Watch or Paris. Still, Woodridge is every bit as dangerous as the other top 4 teams and will get their chance to jump up in the rankings soon enough as they face back-to-back games against the Monarchs and Black Watch over the next two weeks.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Monarchs, Black Watch, Minotaurs, Paris, Wembley
Playoff Chances:
Locks. Yet another team that has the playoffs essentially locked up already. With all the talent in the world, Woodridge has looked sharp the past three games. However, their toughest stretch of schedule lies directly ahead as they will tangle with the Monarchs and Black Watch back to back. Going 1-1 or 2-0 in that stretch would assure the Lumberjacks of a top 2 seed.
5. Wembley Warriors (3-1)
Last Week: 5
5, 6, and 7 are perhaps the toughest spots to slot teams in right now in Alpha. Wembley got a big win over Stuttgart this past week in a narrow 34-31 victory despite being out gained in total offense. It was a clean game with very few mistakes on both sides and demonstrated how close some a lot of teams in Alpha really are to one another. With four winnable games up next, Wembley’s in great shape to get to 7-1 before tangling with Paris.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Red Bandits, Paris, Black Watch, Monarchs, Woodridge
Playoff Chances:
[i[Locks. Just like in Zeta, the top 5 teams are all locks in my mind as far as a playoff birth is concerned. However Wembley may be in the best shape to move into a top 4 spot. So far this year they have beat several good teams leaving their schedule softer than the teams below them. If Wembley can go even 3-2 in those 5 games, they should see themselves hosting a playoff game in a few weeks.
6. London Minotaurs (3-1)
Last Week: 6
The Minotaurs snatched their second win in a row by dispatching Berlin 35 to 21. London racked up 490 yards on offense, including 296 on the ground, but they also tossed three picks. Fortunately the London defense responded in kind by snagging 2 picks and recovering two fumbles to secure the win. They remain at the 6th spot this week but things promise to get shaken up soon with games looming against Woodridge, the Monarchs and Black Watch over the next 4 weeks.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Monarchs, Woodridge, Black Watch, Stuttgart, Paris
Playoff Chances:
75%. There’s a big drop off from here on out in terms of playoff odds. This is in large part due to the Minotaurs being stuck in the “twilight category” as well as the closeness of talent amongst the teams in the 7 through 14 slots. London has jumped off to a nice start but they have yet to beat a team in the top 10. Picking up 2 or 3 wins in that 5 game group will elevate their chances greatly.
7. Stuttgart Nighthawks (2-2)
Last Week: 7
Stuttgart is getting comfortable at the 7th spot. They remain entrenched here despite losing a close contest to Wembley. The decision to keep the Nighthawks here has as much to do with the poor performances of the teams below them as well as strength of their schedule thus far. But with the Aggies seemingly on the rebound, it’s going to take a big win this week for the Nighthawks to avoid slipping out of the top 8.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Monarchs, Woodridge, Minotaurs, Black Watch, Red Bandits
Playoff Chances:
75%. Unlike the Minotaurs, Stuttgart has already played two top 8 teams. Unfortunately the Nighthawks are 0-2 against them. Still, at 2-2 they are in decent shape and with two of their toughest games behind them, they should be able to get to the 8-win mark pretty easily. However, they will need to pull one or two upsets to get to the 11-win mark which would assure them a playoff birth.
8. Dinas Mawddwy Red Bandits (2-2)
Last Week: 9 (+1)
With the bottom half of Alpha struggling, Dinas gets a one spot bump into the top 8 despite getting handled by Paris. I can’t in good conscious have a 1-3 team in the top 8 and thanks to the Red Bandits drubbing of the Chicago, the other remaining 2-2 team, they inherit the 8th spot. A lay-up game against the Swords should give the Red Bandits some time to lick their wounds and short up the issues that sprouted up against Paris. They’ll need to act fast with Wembley just around the corner.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Wembley, Monarchs, Woodridge, Minotaurs, Black Watch
Playoff Chances:
60%. The Red Bandit fans are going to be confused as to how I can have the team ranked 8th but give them only a 60% chance of making the playoffs. The reasoning is simple, in the two games they played against top opponents (including Korb) they did not look impressive. The only sure fire win in the remaining schedule is against the Swords whom they play in Week 5. After that it gets brutal fast. The Red Bandits are going to need a heroic effort to hang on to their 8th spot.
9. Fightin’ Texas Aggies (1-3)
Last Week: 13 (+4)
I said I needed to see the Aggies notch a win before I could start believing in them again and they did just that against E-City last week. The impressive 41-30 win saw the Aggies finally find their rhythm on offense as they torched E-City for 228 yards on the ground and 327 through the air. The impressive display was enough to warrant the biggest jump in the rankings this week as they leap frogged 2-2 Chicago based on talent and most importantly the quality of opponents faced thus far. A win against the Nighthawks next week would put the Aggies back in the thick of the playoff picture.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Stuttgart, Paris, Wembley, Black Watch, Monarchs
Playoff Chances:
65%. The Aggies have had arguably the toughest schedule of any Alpha team thus far. While they had hoped to come out of it with a better record than 1-3, they are still in good shape to make the playoffs. Shocking I know! If they can find a way to knock off 3 of those 5 teams, they may even contend for a 5th seed.
10. Chicago Rocks (2-2)
Last Week: 11 (+1)
Chicago got a chance to get healthy against Carthage. As expected, the Rocks dispatched the Army of Darkness without breaking a sweat. The 50-27 drubbing was impressive and allowed the Rocks to find their balance on offense as both the ground game and passing game looked sharp. I know a lot of Chi-town fans are going to groan about their spot behind a 1-3 Texas team, but they will have a chance to prove me wrong this week as they face Black Watch. An upset win would be nice, but even a close loss would earn them a bump or two in the rankings.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Black Watch, Paris, Wembley, Monarchs, Woodridge
Playoff Chances:
55%. Chicago has been a tough team for me to get a read on as they have been sharp one week and not so sharp the next. They certainly have not had the easiest of schedules, but the loss to the Red Bandits hurts as far as tiebreakers go. I expect Chicago to be in the race right up to the end, but they are going to need to show they can beat, or at least be competitive, with a top team before their odds get any better.
11. E-City Mercenaries (1-3)
Last Week: 8 (-3)
E-City’s frustrating start to the season continued last week as they fell hard to the winless Aggies 41 to 30. The defense has been the biggest culprit this season as over the past two games they have surrendered over 1,000 yards on defense. That is not a good sign considering they have yet to face the conferences best offensive teams. The Mercs need to right the defensive ship fast before they fall too far out of the playoff picture to get back in.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Monarchs, Woodridge, Minotaurs, Black Watch, Paris
Playoff Chances:
40%. The Mercs may be better than their 1-3 record indicates, but tough loses to the Aggies and Warriors will make the road that much tougher. If they can get through Berlin and Lake Charles with wins, they will be in considerably better shape for their first top 4 game of the season. If they drop both of those games, they won’t have much of a window to squeeze through.
12. Aberdeen Wrecking Crew (1-3)
Last Week: 14 (+2)
Aberdeen finally got off the mat last week with their first win of the season. Sure it came at the expense of the gutted Swords, but a win is a win and for the Wrecking Crew, it was a badly needed one. Aberdeen fans hope that the team can carry some of that momentum into their big showdown with Wembley this week in what is certainly a must win game for the team’s playoff prospects. Each week the team chemistry gets a bit better and hopefully that will start to translate in the Win column.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Wembley, Monarchs, Woodridge, Stuttgart, Black Watch
Playoff Chances:
35%. They get a slight bump thanks to the talent on their roster, but they still need to show they can win now before it gets too late. With Paris already behind them, they only face 4 top 5 teams, making their road easier than some of the others in the traffic jam between spots 7 and 14. A win over Wembley could just save their season.
13. Lake Charles Who Dats (1-3)
Last Week: 10 (-3)
One week after playing the Monarchs tight, Lake Charles got thrashed by a well-oiled Lumberjack machine. The 27 point loss was a one sided affair in which the Who Dats looked lost on both sides of the ball. A three-point drop may be a bit harsh considering how talented their past two opponents have been, but it’s a testament to how close the bottom five teams are in this conference (excluding Carthage and Toledo). If Lake Charles wants to get back into the top half of the rankings, they are going to need to find a way to win at least 2 of their next 3 games.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Minotaurs, Stuttgart, Red Bandits, Paris, Wembley
Playoff Chances:
40%. The best news for Lake Charles is they have already played the toughest stretch in their schedule. The bad news is they are 0-3 in the conference to start the year. They have been close to turning the corner and with a soft schedule remaining, winning 3 of those 5 games is a real possibility and would elevate their chances very quickly.
14. Berlin Blitzkrieg (0-4)
Last Week: 12 (-2)
Berlin dropped another game last week, this time at the hands of the Minotaurs. The good news is that after a brutal 4 game stretch to open the season where the Blitz faced both number 1 ranked teams in Alpha and Zeta as well as the Lumberjacks, they are now entering a much softer stretch of schedule where they can really make some noise. It has to start next week though against the struggling Mercs.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Stuttgart, Red Bandits, Paris, Wembley, Black Watch
Playoff Chances:
20%. An 0-4 hole is going to be very tough to crawl out of. Fortunately Berlin, like Lake Charles, is already through their toughest stretch of schedule. Still, their odds would be higher if they had been more competitive in some of their loses. With the talent on their roster it’s not inconceivable to imagine Berlin having a strong finish and sneaking into the playoffs. But they’ll need to play pretty close to perfect from here on out.
15. Carthage Army of Darkness (0-4)
Last Week: 15
This team is in a lot of trouble. They just have not looked competitive in any game this season and the hardest part of their schedule is yet to come.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Paris, Wembley, Monarchs, Woodridge, Minotaurs
Playoff Chances:
1%. I’m not willing to close the door on anyone this early in the season, but Carthage’s chances look very bleak. They are fighting a losing battle right now to avoid relegation. It’s going to take a monumental effort for Carthage to turn this thing around this year.
16. Toledo Swords (0-4)
Last Week: 16
They’ll be here all year …
Week 5 Previews & Picks
Last Week: 11-5
Season Total: 46-18
Zeta
Rotterdam Roughnecks (2-2) at PPP Longnecks (4-0):
The battle of the Necks as PPP looks to move to 5-0 while Rotterdam is anxious to put a halt to their 2 game losing streak. The Roughnecks have not been able to stop anyone all year and PPP QB Levi Jackson and HB Jimmy Slasher should have big numbers this week. Rotterdam will get their points, but I have to go with the better defense in this one. PPP wins 48-39.
Porto (0-4) at Berlin Ballers (4-0)
No shock here. Berlin wins big.
Antwerp Annihilators (1-3) at Sevilla Naranjas (3-1):
Antwerp has made strides as of late and will need to be in top form to stop the high powered Naranjas’ offense. If Sevilla is going to move to 4-1, they are going to need to find a way to contain the ‘Twerps ground game which has been explosive this season. If Antwerp can control the clock they will give their defense a shot. I don’t see it happening this week. Sevilla wins 38-27.
Lyon Dynasty (3-1) at Reykjavik Aggies (2-2):
The Aggies bounced back with an explosive performance against BFM last week and will need a similar offensive output to stay in the game against Lyon’s balanced offensive attack – but I don’t see it happening. Lyon’s 7th ranked offense should be able to find success on the ground and through the air against the Aggies 19th ranked defense. Lyon wins 38-23.
Black Forest Mercenaries (1-3) at Multiple Scorgasms (3-1):
QB McMahon has to be licking his chops this week as the Scorgasms get a chance to get back on the winning track against the Mercs 31st ranked pass defense. BMF is still trying to adjust to WEPL and won’t be able to hang with Multiple this week. Multiple wins 48-20.
Paris Musketeers (1-3) at ATOIAF (2-2):
This is a swing game for Ice & Fire, meaning that a win will erase the debacle that was the Lyon game while a loss will cast a large shadow of doubt about Ice & Fire’s playoff dreams. For Paris it’s equally important as they look to prove that their win over the Pats was not just a fluke. This one should be a good one to watch but in the end I’m giving the edge to the brain trust of ATOIAF. Ice & Fire wins a closer than expected game 27-24.
Korb Destroyers (2-2) at UK Patriots (0-4):
Korb will be out for blood in this game as they try to put their two game losing streak in the rearview mirror. The Patriots would love to play spoiler here, but they just don’t have the horses to win this race. Korb wins 48-10.
Game of the Week: Zeta
Stockholm Meatballs (4-0) at Rivals Mainboard Pimps (3-1)
Another great match-up between these two clubs promises to be filled with even more smack talk than normal thanks to the Mal Brown/Lee Suggs feud. While this intrepid reporter thinks both Brown and Suggs as well as Stephens are extraordinary backs, only one team will walk away with bragging rights in this one. The Pimps bring the top ranked offense into the game against the Meatballs number 2 ranked defense. With the Pimps able to run and pass well, it will be on the coaching staff of the Meatballs to design a defensive scheme able to stop both. It’s a tall order to be sure. On the other side of things, the Meatballs bring more versatility to the contest than they have in seasons past. The emergence of Gunn Slinger and Xaiver Rhodes gives the Meat more options as to how to attack the Pimps. I expect this to be a great game, perhaps higher scoring than most would expect. I can really see this game going either way to be frank, but since I’m paid the big bucks to make the picks I can’t squirm out of it. Meatballs win a tight one 47-44.
Alpha
Wembley Warriors (3-1) at Aberdeen Wrecking Crew (1-3):
Wembley has quietly been taking care of business over the past three weeks, dispatching three teams that are favorites to make the playoffs this season. The impressive run has propelled them into the Top 5. On the flip side, Aberdeen has struggled but are not a team to be taken lightly. This is as close to a must-win game as you can find in Week 5. Aberdeen flat out needs to win, and I’m going with the upset this week. AWC wins 20-17.
London Minotaurs (3-1) at Lake Charles Who Dats (1-3):
London brings in their 3rd ranked offense this week and will look to feast on Lake Charles’ 28th ranked defensive unit. Lake Charles has shown flashes of being a top team this season, but the deficiencies on defense is holding them back. I don’t expect that to change this week. London wins, 38-20.
Black Watch (3-1) at Chicago Rocks (2-2):
If Chicago ever wanted to make a statement to the rest of Alpha, now is their chance. Black Watch comes to town anxious to get back on the winning track and will look to exploit Chicago’s 21st ranked defense. Based on the offensive output the Black Watch displayed against the Monarchs, this game could get ugly really fast for Chicago fans. BW wins 50-20.
Paris Philharmonic (3-1) at Carthage Arm of Darkness (0-4)
Paris will get to 4-1 without breaking much of a sweat. Paris wins 48-10.
Toledo Swords (0-4) at Dinas Red Bandits (2-2):
No shocker here. Red Bandits win big.
Fightin’ Texas Aggies (1-3) at Stuttgart Nighthawks (2-2)
This is another great game in Alpha this week that might be under some people’s radars. For the Aggies, it’s a chance to continue to improve after their first win of the season. For the Nighthawks, it’s a chance to right the ship after their close loss to Wembley and reestablish themselves as a top 8 team. Expect the Nighthawks to use their 9th rank rushing attack to wear down the Aggies 29th ranked run defense and control the clock. Nighthawks win 30-27.
Berlin Blitz (0-4) at E-City Mercenaries (1-3)
Both teams need this win … bad. That should make for a fun, intense match up. Berlin might be able to cross up the Mercs by airing it out against their suspect secondary and getting some early points on the board. But in the end, this game is going to come down to who takes care of the football better. I’m calling another upset here. Berlin eeks out their first win of the year 33-31.
Game of the Week: Alpha
London Monarchs (4-0) at Woodridge Lumberjacks (3-1)
This could be the best game of the week in WEPL once again as the Lumberjacks will look to restake their claim as THE team in Alpha. The Monarchs are riding high after their thrilling victory over Black Watch, but they will need to shore up the defense or they risk losing control of the game early. I’m a fan of defense (as everyone can tell) and thus I have to go with the better defensive club here in what I’m sure will be a great game. Woodridge wins 40-37.
Season 6: Quarter Report:
I did a little something this week. We’ve reached the first quarter mark of the season and I thought it would be best to examine where teams are stacking up as far as the playoff picture is concerned.
I wanted to do something about the top players thus far, but I felt it was too early to really warrant that – especially since a handful of teams have inflated stats after playing Porto or the Swords.
The Rewind will be back next week!
FDC
Zeta Power Rankings: Week 5
1. Stockholm Meatballs (4-0)
Last Week: 1
The Meatballs manage to hold onto the top spot for one more week after dispatching the pesky Annihilators in what was a well-fought contest. While Mal Brown was held out of the end zone for the first time all year, new QB Gunn Slinger hooked up with WR Xaiver Rhodes 5 times for 116 yards and 1 TD. The bad news for Stockholm was that their much-vaulted defense was gashed for 421 yards, including a 70-yard TD scamper by HB Rick Fastley. With Suggs and Stephens up next, the Defense is going to need to step up their game if the Meatballs hope to retain the number 1 spot next week.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Pimps, Longnecks, Ballers, Lyon, Korb
Playoff Chances:
Locks. With the hardest part of their schedule ahead of them, it’s too early to break out the champagne, but an impressive 4-0 start should help them survive some setbacks down the road.
2. PPP Longnecks (4-0)
Last Week: 2
PPP did what they were supposed to against Porto – however they were the first team to allow Porto a TD. While the score didn’t mean much, it’s something we can make fun of them for nonetheless. A showdown with the Roughnecks kicks off a brutal three game stretch, which will test PPP and could cement their status as a top 4 club.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Rotterdam, Stockholm, Pimps, Berlin, Lyon
Playoff Chances:
Locks. The Longnecks have really only faced 1 top team this season. The good news is they beat ‘em. The bad news is that they have a brutal stretch remaining. Still, the way that they have looked early this season, there’s no reason to expect a slide. Look for PPP to get one of the top 4 seeds.
3. Rivals Mainboard Pimps (3-1)
Last Week: 3 (+1)
In an offensive showdown, the Pimps took care of business against Rotterdam, surviving a 28-point Roughneck 2nd quarter and 3 turnovers. Despite the sloppy play on both sides, the Pimps put it together when it mattered, shutting down the ‘Necks in the second half, outscoring them 31 to 7. HB Stephens had a brilliant day on the ground, rushing for 6.2 yards per carry and 5 TDs on just 21 touches. With both Stephens and Suggs playing terrific football and QB Pohl seemingly out of his early season rut, the Pimps will be looking to knock off Stockholm this week in what should be a terrific game.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Stockholm, PPP, Berlin, Sevilla, Lyon.
Playoff Chances:
Locks. With a lighter schedule remaining than PPP or Stockholm, the Pimps have a great shot to snatch at top 2 seed if they can find a way to beat at least one of those teams. Even if they drop both games, they would be in great position to steal a top 4 spot.
4. Berlin Ballers (4-0)
Last Week: 6 (+2)
Berlin’s 37 to 17 dismantling of the Destroyers was a clear announcement to the rest of WEPL that they are indeed for real. DT Sienna Miller had 7 tackles, 5 hurries and 3 sacks in what was a dominant team defensive performance. In total, the Ballers pass rush racked up 7 sacks, 11 hurries and forced 3 turnovers. Offensively the Ballers were not any less impressive as they piled up 183 yards rushing on one of Zeta’s elite rush defenses. While the second quarter schedule is considerably tougher for the Ballers, after a performance like this there is no reason to expect less than a 7-1 record at the half way point.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Roughnecks, Stockholm, Pimps, Longnecks, Sevilla
Playoff Chances:
Locks. Berlin will be in the playoffs this season, now it’s just a question of seeding. After the win over Korb it’s not out of the realm of possibility to be thinking of a 1 or 2 seed.
5. Korb Destroyers (2-2)
Last Week: 3 (-2)
I know I’m going to get grief for having a 2-2 team in the top 5 while excluding three 3-1 teams. My logic is simple: Korb, despite two loses, is still an elite team. They just have had a very tough draw to start the year, playing 3 of the top 4 teams to open. Escaping that gauntlet with a 1-2 record has taken some of the shine off their pre-season projections, but this is still a dangerous team who is capable of beating anyone in WEPL. Look for them to bounce back quickly.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Multiple, Sevilla, Lyon, Roughnecks, Stockholm
Playoff Chances:
Locks. While it may be premature to declare them a lock, I’m a gambler. With a much easier schedule remaining than any of the top 5 teams, I don’t expect Korb to fade down the stretch. If anything, they are liable to get stronger.
6. Lyon Dynasty (3-1)
Last Week: 8 (+2)
Lyon makes another big jump after dispatching Ice & Fire in a rather routine fashion. The win was a touch of redemption as the Dynasty got to avenge last season’s playoff upset. More importantly to the here-and-now, the win allows Lyon to keep up with Berlin and Sevilla for the right to be crowned the best rookie Zeta team.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Sevilla, Korb, Stockholm, Pimps, Longnecks
Playoff Chances:
90%. Since I feel 5 teams are locks for the Playoffs already, that leaves 11 teams fighting for the last three spots. Lyon has a brutal schedule remaining, but they are 1-1 against top competition this season (Woodridge and Berlin) meaning they have the chops to go 3-2 in those 5 games.
7. Sevilla Naranjas (3-1)
Last Week: 9 (+2)
For the second straight week the Naranjas knocked off a veteran Zeta club whom many predicted to be in the playoffs in Season 6. The Naranjas dominated offensively as they racked up 510 yards against the Scorgasm defense while giving up only 63 yards on the ground themselves.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Korb, Stockholm, Pimps, Longnecks, Berlin
Playoff Chances:
80%. Sevilla has acquitted themselves nicely over the past two weeks but they have yet to play one of the top 5 teams, meaning it might be a bit too early to pop the champagne. Still, if their offense keeps putting up yards in bunches, they will be in the playoffs this season.
8. Multiple Scorgasms (3-1)
Last Week: 5 (-3)
Multiple didn’t look sharp against the Naranjas in their first loss of the season. The Scorgasms opted to abandon the running game early (just 17 attempts for 63 yards) and allowed Sevilla to dominate the time of possession battle, especially in the 4th quarter where they held the ball for almost 13 minutes. As good as QB McMahon has been, Multiple cannot afford to become one dimensional on offense as the season wears on, especially when they face top rushing teams such as Stockholm, Korb and the Pimps. With Black Forest up next, Multiple has a chance to get healthy on offense before their showdown with Lyon.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Korb, Stockholm, Pimps, Longnecks, Berlin
Playoff Chances:
80%. Multiple finds themselves in the same boat as Sevilla as the toughest games on their schedule lie ahead. If you factor in the Lyon and Rotterdam games also left on their schedule and Multiple is facing a brutal 7 game stretch in the final three quarters of the season. One loss is no reason to hit the panic button, but anything less than a 3-1 stretch over the next 4 games might be cause for alarm.
9. Rotterdam Roughnecks (2-2)
Last Wee: 7 (-2)
Back to back loses to the Meatballs and Pimps have knocked the Roughnecks out of the Top 8 for the first time all year. An argument can be made that they belong ahead of Multiple even with 1 more loss based on strength of schedule, but I can’t rank a team with a defense that has surrendered 933 yards in the last two games any higher than 9. The Roughnecks can clearly score on anyone as their 42 points against the Pimps demonstrated, but until they can fix their problems on defense, this team is going to have a hard time stringing together sustained winning streaks.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Longnecks, Berlin, Sevilla, Lyon, Korb
Playoff Chances:
75%. I still believe Rotterdam to be one of the most talented teams in Zeta and they have already faced 2 of the top 5 teams making their closing schedule softer than all the teams ranked above them with the possible exception of Korb. But they still need to prove to themselves and the Conference that they can defeat a top team. Going 3-2 or 4-1 in that 5 game stretch would lock up a playoff birth for the Roughnecks as well as erase any lingering doubts.
10. Reykjavik Aggies (2-2)
Last Week: 11 (+1)
The Aggies found their groove offensively against the struggling BMF this past week. Racking up 600 yards of offense and 42 points should help restore some of the Aggies’ pre-season swagger. With a huge match-up against Lyon in front of them, the Aggies are going to need all the swagger they can muster.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Korb, Stockholm, Pimps, Longnecks, Berlin
Playoff Chances:
65%. The Aggies are 0-2 when facing top 8 clubs so far this season, and with all the top 5 teams left on the schedule, the Aggies’ backs are against the wall. With 2 loses already, Reykjavik cannot afford to lose many more games, meaning they’ll have to go at least 8-4 down the stretch which is a tall order though not out of reach.
11. ATOIAF (2-2)
Last Week: 10 (-1)
Ice & Fire were manhandled by the Dynasty in Week 4, surrendering 397 yards on the ground while their offense turned the ball over 3 times. The disappointing loss drops Ice & Fire to 0-2 on the season against top 10 teams, keeping them cemented into the bottom tier of the Power Rankings. Ice & Fire will have to bounce back fast against a steadily improving Musketeer team and try to gain some momentum before their match-up with the Destroyers in Week 6.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Korb, Stockholm, Pimps, Longnecks, Berlin
Playoff Chances:
40%. Ice & Fire still remains in the “twilight” category for these rankings as they’re only wins have come at the expense of the struggling Black Forest and Toledo Swords (prior to them folding). With two losses already, the margin for error is slim and Ice & Fire is going to need to pull of 2 or 3 big upsets to make a serious run at the playoffs. While it’s not out of the realm of possibility, it’s not very likely either.
12. Antwerp Annihilators (1-3)
Last Week: 12
Antwerp dropped their third loss in a row, this time to the Meatballs. The good news is the Annihilators seem to be rounding a corner as they looked impressive at times against the Meat, especially on offense where they racked up close to 450 yards against what was thought to be one of Zeta’s better defenses. Defensively, Antwerp held Mal Brown out of the end zone and frustrated the Stockholm running game. These are positive signs for a team who faces a much softer schedule down the stretch.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Pimps, Longnecks, Dynasty, Berlin, Korb
Playoff Chances:
65%. A three game losing streak is a grim way to start the season. However, with the talent on Antwerp’s roster, there is no reason to count them out of the playoff race just yet. In fact, with three of the tougher opponents already behind them, the schedule lines up very nicely for a late season playoff push. However, the Annihilators still need to prove they can beat a top team before anyone will give them their due. Their first opportunity will come against their long time rivals, the Pimps, in Week 6.
13. Paris Musketeers (1-3)
Last Week: 13
In perhaps the most thrilling game no one watched, Paris QB Ace Rivers was the hero as his last second TD pass to Terrell Owens capped a come-from-behind victory against the UK Patriots. The win is the first of the year for the Musketeers and hopefully is a sign of more to come. The Musketeers still struggled to run the ball with their star HB Nolan Akers (8 carries for 40 yards), but the with Ace Rivers coming of age there is reason to be optimistic in Paris.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Sevilla, Dynasty, Korb, Stockholm, Pimps
Playoff Chances:
10%. The playoffs are a long shot for this club that is in the midst of a re-tooling (I won’t call it rebuilding). I won’t close the door on anyone this early in the season (but for Porto and Toledo), but it will take a massive turnaround, as well as a 4-1 or even 5-0 stretch against those remaining teams for Paris to get back into the race.
14. Black Forest Mercenaries (1-3)
Last Week: 14
The Black Forest defense once again struggled, this time against the Aggies who tuned them up for 42 points and 600 yards of offense. The offense wasn’t much better, punting 7 times and only amassing 28 yards on the ground. The key for BMF the rest of the season will be trying to find balance on both offense and defense. There is plenty of talent on the roster to compete and they shouldn’t have to worry about relegation unless there is a massive collapse, but before they can think about the playoffs, they have to sort out their issues on both sides of the ball.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Korb, Stockholm, Longnecks, Pimps, Berlin
Playoff Chances:
5%. Unlike Paris, the Mercs have all 8 top teams left on their schedule meaning the season could get even uglier if things don’t change on defense fast. The playoffs are a real long shot at this point. While it’s too early to pack it in, the Mercs would be doing themselves a favor by focusing on fixing the problems for Season 7.
15. UK Patriots (0-4)
Last Week: 15
The Patriots played Paris tough in Week 4 and came within 38 seconds of their first win. The heartbreaking loss is a tough pill to swallow for a team so desperate for a win. The good news is that the defense did look improved against Paris as they forced 2 INTs and held the Musketeers to under 400 yards (the first time the defense has done that all season). The Patriots are fighting for their lives as far as relegation goes, but if they continue to make strides on defense they will give themselves a shot to make some noise in Zeta before the year’s out.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Korb, Stockholm, Longnecks, Pimps, Berlin
Playoff Chances:
1%. I’m keeping the door slightly open since it is only Week 5. The reality of the situation though is that the Patriots are now playing more to avoid relegation than they are for a shot at the playoffs. The rest of the schedule is brutal for the Pats and it’s going to take several huge upsets as well as a couple big BMF loses for the Pats to have a fighting chance.
16. Porto Reconquistas (0-4)
Last Week: 16
Porto will be here all year folks … be sure to tip your waitress and try the veal!
Alpha Power Rankings: Week 5
1. London Monarchs (4-0)
Last Week: 1
Finally the Game of the Week lives up to they hype as the Monarchs and Black Watch battled it out in what was a high scoring affair. The Monarchs won 54-42 behind the strength of their two talented HBs who chewed up the BW defense for 260 yards and 2 TDs between them. While neither defense was able to put up much of a fight (1,147 yards combined for both clubs), the Monarchs’ win puts them in great position to lock up the top seed early in the year.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Woodridge, Minotaurs, Stuttgart, Paris, Wembley
Playoff Chances:
Locks. The win over the Black Watch cemented what we already knew: The Monarchs are the team to beat in Alpha this season. With Black Watch behind them, and Woodridge up next, London has one of the most favorable remaining schedules of the top 4 teams, making them the odds on favorites to win the top seed.
2. Paris Philharmonic (3-1)
Last Week: 3 (+1)
Paris jumps ahead of Black Watch this week in what will sure to be a controversial decision. The Philharmonic dispatched the Red Bandits 45-14 in their third straight win. The quick turnaround for the Philharmonics has been impressive as they are suddenly playing very well on both sides of the ball. With games against Carthage and Chicago up next, Paris has even more time to sharpen their knives for their Week 7 showdown with Black Watch.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Black Watch, Wembley, Monarchs, Woodridge, Minotaurs
Playoff Chances:
Locks. Paris’s impressive rebound from their Week 1 disaster has not only moved them into the number 2 spot, but has also made it quite clear they will once again be in the playoffs in Season 6. However, since they have yet to face any of the other top 5 teams, it’s unclear whether they are a top 4 seed or a bottom 4 seed. Time will tell.
3. Black Watch (3-1)
Last Week: 2 (-1)
While there’s no shame in losing to the top team in the Conference, it’s still a set back for a club that had been playing near perfect football for the first 3 weeks of the season. The loss, while exciting, certainly raises questions about the Black Watch defense. Are they as vulnerable as they appeared? Or did the skewed stats have more to do with how good the Monarchs’ offense is? We will find out quickly as BW faces Woodridge and Paris over the next three weeks.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Woodridge, Paris, Minotaurs, Wembley, Stuttgart
Playoff Chances:
Locks. Black Watch has an edge on Paris at the moment based on strength of schedule down the stretch. The week 7 match-up between those two clubs could very well determine which one gets a top 2 seed. Regardless, it would take a disaster of epic proportions for BW to fall out of the top 4 by playoff time.
4. Woodridge Lumberjacks (3-1)
Last Week: 4
Woodridge won again. This time it was a one-sided whoopin’ delivered to the Lake Charles Who Dats by the score of 54-17. Woodridge dominated Lake Charles in every phase of the game as they did not turn the ball over and never had to punt even once. I was tempted to bump Woodridge back up to 2 this week, but couldn’t justify dropping Black Watch or Paris. Still, Woodridge is every bit as dangerous as the other top 4 teams and will get their chance to jump up in the rankings soon enough as they face back-to-back games against the Monarchs and Black Watch over the next two weeks.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Monarchs, Black Watch, Minotaurs, Paris, Wembley
Playoff Chances:
Locks. Yet another team that has the playoffs essentially locked up already. With all the talent in the world, Woodridge has looked sharp the past three games. However, their toughest stretch of schedule lies directly ahead as they will tangle with the Monarchs and Black Watch back to back. Going 1-1 or 2-0 in that stretch would assure the Lumberjacks of a top 2 seed.
5. Wembley Warriors (3-1)
Last Week: 5
5, 6, and 7 are perhaps the toughest spots to slot teams in right now in Alpha. Wembley got a big win over Stuttgart this past week in a narrow 34-31 victory despite being out gained in total offense. It was a clean game with very few mistakes on both sides and demonstrated how close some a lot of teams in Alpha really are to one another. With four winnable games up next, Wembley’s in great shape to get to 7-1 before tangling with Paris.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Red Bandits, Paris, Black Watch, Monarchs, Woodridge
Playoff Chances:
[i[Locks. Just like in Zeta, the top 5 teams are all locks in my mind as far as a playoff birth is concerned. However Wembley may be in the best shape to move into a top 4 spot. So far this year they have beat several good teams leaving their schedule softer than the teams below them. If Wembley can go even 3-2 in those 5 games, they should see themselves hosting a playoff game in a few weeks.
6. London Minotaurs (3-1)
Last Week: 6
The Minotaurs snatched their second win in a row by dispatching Berlin 35 to 21. London racked up 490 yards on offense, including 296 on the ground, but they also tossed three picks. Fortunately the London defense responded in kind by snagging 2 picks and recovering two fumbles to secure the win. They remain at the 6th spot this week but things promise to get shaken up soon with games looming against Woodridge, the Monarchs and Black Watch over the next 4 weeks.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Monarchs, Woodridge, Black Watch, Stuttgart, Paris
Playoff Chances:
75%. There’s a big drop off from here on out in terms of playoff odds. This is in large part due to the Minotaurs being stuck in the “twilight category” as well as the closeness of talent amongst the teams in the 7 through 14 slots. London has jumped off to a nice start but they have yet to beat a team in the top 10. Picking up 2 or 3 wins in that 5 game group will elevate their chances greatly.
7. Stuttgart Nighthawks (2-2)
Last Week: 7
Stuttgart is getting comfortable at the 7th spot. They remain entrenched here despite losing a close contest to Wembley. The decision to keep the Nighthawks here has as much to do with the poor performances of the teams below them as well as strength of their schedule thus far. But with the Aggies seemingly on the rebound, it’s going to take a big win this week for the Nighthawks to avoid slipping out of the top 8.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Monarchs, Woodridge, Minotaurs, Black Watch, Red Bandits
Playoff Chances:
75%. Unlike the Minotaurs, Stuttgart has already played two top 8 teams. Unfortunately the Nighthawks are 0-2 against them. Still, at 2-2 they are in decent shape and with two of their toughest games behind them, they should be able to get to the 8-win mark pretty easily. However, they will need to pull one or two upsets to get to the 11-win mark which would assure them a playoff birth.
8. Dinas Mawddwy Red Bandits (2-2)
Last Week: 9 (+1)
With the bottom half of Alpha struggling, Dinas gets a one spot bump into the top 8 despite getting handled by Paris. I can’t in good conscious have a 1-3 team in the top 8 and thanks to the Red Bandits drubbing of the Chicago, the other remaining 2-2 team, they inherit the 8th spot. A lay-up game against the Swords should give the Red Bandits some time to lick their wounds and short up the issues that sprouted up against Paris. They’ll need to act fast with Wembley just around the corner.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Wembley, Monarchs, Woodridge, Minotaurs, Black Watch
Playoff Chances:
60%. The Red Bandit fans are going to be confused as to how I can have the team ranked 8th but give them only a 60% chance of making the playoffs. The reasoning is simple, in the two games they played against top opponents (including Korb) they did not look impressive. The only sure fire win in the remaining schedule is against the Swords whom they play in Week 5. After that it gets brutal fast. The Red Bandits are going to need a heroic effort to hang on to their 8th spot.
9. Fightin’ Texas Aggies (1-3)
Last Week: 13 (+4)
I said I needed to see the Aggies notch a win before I could start believing in them again and they did just that against E-City last week. The impressive 41-30 win saw the Aggies finally find their rhythm on offense as they torched E-City for 228 yards on the ground and 327 through the air. The impressive display was enough to warrant the biggest jump in the rankings this week as they leap frogged 2-2 Chicago based on talent and most importantly the quality of opponents faced thus far. A win against the Nighthawks next week would put the Aggies back in the thick of the playoff picture.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Stuttgart, Paris, Wembley, Black Watch, Monarchs
Playoff Chances:
65%. The Aggies have had arguably the toughest schedule of any Alpha team thus far. While they had hoped to come out of it with a better record than 1-3, they are still in good shape to make the playoffs. Shocking I know! If they can find a way to knock off 3 of those 5 teams, they may even contend for a 5th seed.
10. Chicago Rocks (2-2)
Last Week: 11 (+1)
Chicago got a chance to get healthy against Carthage. As expected, the Rocks dispatched the Army of Darkness without breaking a sweat. The 50-27 drubbing was impressive and allowed the Rocks to find their balance on offense as both the ground game and passing game looked sharp. I know a lot of Chi-town fans are going to groan about their spot behind a 1-3 Texas team, but they will have a chance to prove me wrong this week as they face Black Watch. An upset win would be nice, but even a close loss would earn them a bump or two in the rankings.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Black Watch, Paris, Wembley, Monarchs, Woodridge
Playoff Chances:
55%. Chicago has been a tough team for me to get a read on as they have been sharp one week and not so sharp the next. They certainly have not had the easiest of schedules, but the loss to the Red Bandits hurts as far as tiebreakers go. I expect Chicago to be in the race right up to the end, but they are going to need to show they can beat, or at least be competitive, with a top team before their odds get any better.
11. E-City Mercenaries (1-3)
Last Week: 8 (-3)
E-City’s frustrating start to the season continued last week as they fell hard to the winless Aggies 41 to 30. The defense has been the biggest culprit this season as over the past two games they have surrendered over 1,000 yards on defense. That is not a good sign considering they have yet to face the conferences best offensive teams. The Mercs need to right the defensive ship fast before they fall too far out of the playoff picture to get back in.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Monarchs, Woodridge, Minotaurs, Black Watch, Paris
Playoff Chances:
40%. The Mercs may be better than their 1-3 record indicates, but tough loses to the Aggies and Warriors will make the road that much tougher. If they can get through Berlin and Lake Charles with wins, they will be in considerably better shape for their first top 4 game of the season. If they drop both of those games, they won’t have much of a window to squeeze through.
12. Aberdeen Wrecking Crew (1-3)
Last Week: 14 (+2)
Aberdeen finally got off the mat last week with their first win of the season. Sure it came at the expense of the gutted Swords, but a win is a win and for the Wrecking Crew, it was a badly needed one. Aberdeen fans hope that the team can carry some of that momentum into their big showdown with Wembley this week in what is certainly a must win game for the team’s playoff prospects. Each week the team chemistry gets a bit better and hopefully that will start to translate in the Win column.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Wembley, Monarchs, Woodridge, Stuttgart, Black Watch
Playoff Chances:
35%. They get a slight bump thanks to the talent on their roster, but they still need to show they can win now before it gets too late. With Paris already behind them, they only face 4 top 5 teams, making their road easier than some of the others in the traffic jam between spots 7 and 14. A win over Wembley could just save their season.
13. Lake Charles Who Dats (1-3)
Last Week: 10 (-3)
One week after playing the Monarchs tight, Lake Charles got thrashed by a well-oiled Lumberjack machine. The 27 point loss was a one sided affair in which the Who Dats looked lost on both sides of the ball. A three-point drop may be a bit harsh considering how talented their past two opponents have been, but it’s a testament to how close the bottom five teams are in this conference (excluding Carthage and Toledo). If Lake Charles wants to get back into the top half of the rankings, they are going to need to find a way to win at least 2 of their next 3 games.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Minotaurs, Stuttgart, Red Bandits, Paris, Wembley
Playoff Chances:
40%. The best news for Lake Charles is they have already played the toughest stretch in their schedule. The bad news is they are 0-3 in the conference to start the year. They have been close to turning the corner and with a soft schedule remaining, winning 3 of those 5 games is a real possibility and would elevate their chances very quickly.
14. Berlin Blitzkrieg (0-4)
Last Week: 12 (-2)
Berlin dropped another game last week, this time at the hands of the Minotaurs. The good news is that after a brutal 4 game stretch to open the season where the Blitz faced both number 1 ranked teams in Alpha and Zeta as well as the Lumberjacks, they are now entering a much softer stretch of schedule where they can really make some noise. It has to start next week though against the struggling Mercs.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Stuttgart, Red Bandits, Paris, Wembley, Black Watch
Playoff Chances:
20%. An 0-4 hole is going to be very tough to crawl out of. Fortunately Berlin, like Lake Charles, is already through their toughest stretch of schedule. Still, their odds would be higher if they had been more competitive in some of their loses. With the talent on their roster it’s not inconceivable to imagine Berlin having a strong finish and sneaking into the playoffs. But they’ll need to play pretty close to perfect from here on out.
15. Carthage Army of Darkness (0-4)
Last Week: 15
This team is in a lot of trouble. They just have not looked competitive in any game this season and the hardest part of their schedule is yet to come.
5 Toughest Games Remaining:
Paris, Wembley, Monarchs, Woodridge, Minotaurs
Playoff Chances:
1%. I’m not willing to close the door on anyone this early in the season, but Carthage’s chances look very bleak. They are fighting a losing battle right now to avoid relegation. It’s going to take a monumental effort for Carthage to turn this thing around this year.
16. Toledo Swords (0-4)
Last Week: 16
They’ll be here all year …
Week 5 Previews & Picks
Last Week: 11-5
Season Total: 46-18
Zeta
Rotterdam Roughnecks (2-2) at PPP Longnecks (4-0):
The battle of the Necks as PPP looks to move to 5-0 while Rotterdam is anxious to put a halt to their 2 game losing streak. The Roughnecks have not been able to stop anyone all year and PPP QB Levi Jackson and HB Jimmy Slasher should have big numbers this week. Rotterdam will get their points, but I have to go with the better defense in this one. PPP wins 48-39.
Porto (0-4) at Berlin Ballers (4-0)
No shock here. Berlin wins big.
Antwerp Annihilators (1-3) at Sevilla Naranjas (3-1):
Antwerp has made strides as of late and will need to be in top form to stop the high powered Naranjas’ offense. If Sevilla is going to move to 4-1, they are going to need to find a way to contain the ‘Twerps ground game which has been explosive this season. If Antwerp can control the clock they will give their defense a shot. I don’t see it happening this week. Sevilla wins 38-27.
Lyon Dynasty (3-1) at Reykjavik Aggies (2-2):
The Aggies bounced back with an explosive performance against BFM last week and will need a similar offensive output to stay in the game against Lyon’s balanced offensive attack – but I don’t see it happening. Lyon’s 7th ranked offense should be able to find success on the ground and through the air against the Aggies 19th ranked defense. Lyon wins 38-23.
Black Forest Mercenaries (1-3) at Multiple Scorgasms (3-1):
QB McMahon has to be licking his chops this week as the Scorgasms get a chance to get back on the winning track against the Mercs 31st ranked pass defense. BMF is still trying to adjust to WEPL and won’t be able to hang with Multiple this week. Multiple wins 48-20.
Paris Musketeers (1-3) at ATOIAF (2-2):
This is a swing game for Ice & Fire, meaning that a win will erase the debacle that was the Lyon game while a loss will cast a large shadow of doubt about Ice & Fire’s playoff dreams. For Paris it’s equally important as they look to prove that their win over the Pats was not just a fluke. This one should be a good one to watch but in the end I’m giving the edge to the brain trust of ATOIAF. Ice & Fire wins a closer than expected game 27-24.
Korb Destroyers (2-2) at UK Patriots (0-4):
Korb will be out for blood in this game as they try to put their two game losing streak in the rearview mirror. The Patriots would love to play spoiler here, but they just don’t have the horses to win this race. Korb wins 48-10.
Game of the Week: Zeta
Stockholm Meatballs (4-0) at Rivals Mainboard Pimps (3-1)
Another great match-up between these two clubs promises to be filled with even more smack talk than normal thanks to the Mal Brown/Lee Suggs feud. While this intrepid reporter thinks both Brown and Suggs as well as Stephens are extraordinary backs, only one team will walk away with bragging rights in this one. The Pimps bring the top ranked offense into the game against the Meatballs number 2 ranked defense. With the Pimps able to run and pass well, it will be on the coaching staff of the Meatballs to design a defensive scheme able to stop both. It’s a tall order to be sure. On the other side of things, the Meatballs bring more versatility to the contest than they have in seasons past. The emergence of Gunn Slinger and Xaiver Rhodes gives the Meat more options as to how to attack the Pimps. I expect this to be a great game, perhaps higher scoring than most would expect. I can really see this game going either way to be frank, but since I’m paid the big bucks to make the picks I can’t squirm out of it. Meatballs win a tight one 47-44.
Alpha
Wembley Warriors (3-1) at Aberdeen Wrecking Crew (1-3):
Wembley has quietly been taking care of business over the past three weeks, dispatching three teams that are favorites to make the playoffs this season. The impressive run has propelled them into the Top 5. On the flip side, Aberdeen has struggled but are not a team to be taken lightly. This is as close to a must-win game as you can find in Week 5. Aberdeen flat out needs to win, and I’m going with the upset this week. AWC wins 20-17.
London Minotaurs (3-1) at Lake Charles Who Dats (1-3):
London brings in their 3rd ranked offense this week and will look to feast on Lake Charles’ 28th ranked defensive unit. Lake Charles has shown flashes of being a top team this season, but the deficiencies on defense is holding them back. I don’t expect that to change this week. London wins, 38-20.
Black Watch (3-1) at Chicago Rocks (2-2):
If Chicago ever wanted to make a statement to the rest of Alpha, now is their chance. Black Watch comes to town anxious to get back on the winning track and will look to exploit Chicago’s 21st ranked defense. Based on the offensive output the Black Watch displayed against the Monarchs, this game could get ugly really fast for Chicago fans. BW wins 50-20.
Paris Philharmonic (3-1) at Carthage Arm of Darkness (0-4)
Paris will get to 4-1 without breaking much of a sweat. Paris wins 48-10.
Toledo Swords (0-4) at Dinas Red Bandits (2-2):
No shocker here. Red Bandits win big.
Fightin’ Texas Aggies (1-3) at Stuttgart Nighthawks (2-2)
This is another great game in Alpha this week that might be under some people’s radars. For the Aggies, it’s a chance to continue to improve after their first win of the season. For the Nighthawks, it’s a chance to right the ship after their close loss to Wembley and reestablish themselves as a top 8 team. Expect the Nighthawks to use their 9th rank rushing attack to wear down the Aggies 29th ranked run defense and control the clock. Nighthawks win 30-27.
Berlin Blitz (0-4) at E-City Mercenaries (1-3)
Both teams need this win … bad. That should make for a fun, intense match up. Berlin might be able to cross up the Mercs by airing it out against their suspect secondary and getting some early points on the board. But in the end, this game is going to come down to who takes care of the football better. I’m calling another upset here. Berlin eeks out their first win of the year 33-31.
Game of the Week: Alpha
London Monarchs (4-0) at Woodridge Lumberjacks (3-1)
This could be the best game of the week in WEPL once again as the Lumberjacks will look to restake their claim as THE team in Alpha. The Monarchs are riding high after their thrilling victory over Black Watch, but they will need to shore up the defense or they risk losing control of the game early. I’m a fan of defense (as everyone can tell) and thus I have to go with the better defensive club here in what I’m sure will be a great game. Woodridge wins 40-37.
Last edited Nov 19, 2008 15:32:56
