Warrior General Games

Current Standings:
Rk__Team____________________W___L___T____%_____PF____PA__
..1 . . Uncle Sam's Misguided Children.5 . . 0 . . 0 . . 100% . . 452 . . ..95
..2 . . Chicago Maroons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . 0 . . 0 . . 100% . . 269 . . ..53
..3 . . Caprica Buccaneers. . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . 0 . . 0 . . 100% . . 219 . . ..67
..4 . . Rapid City Rushmores. . . . . . . . . 4 . . 1 . . 0 . . ..80% . . 221 . . ..86
..5 . . Anchorage Wolves. . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 . . 1 . . 0 . . ..80% . . 206 . . 108
..6 . . Death Valley Shadowblades. . . . .3 . . 2 . . 0 . . ..60% . . 178 . . 140
..7 . . DVDTalk Otters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 . . 2 . . 0 . . ..60% . . 131 . . ..89
..8 . . Sioux Falls Storm. . . . . . . . ... . . . .2 . . 3 . . 0 . . ..40% . . 149 . . 118
..9 . . Midwest Mayhem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . 3 . . 0 . . ..40% . . 126 . . 208
10 . . San Diego Silver Shock. . . . . . . . 2 . . 3 . . 0 . . ..40% . . 196 . . 129
11 . . Rocky Mountain Thunder . . . . . . 2 . . 3 . . 0 . . ..40% . . 122 . . 146
12 . . Ivalice Tacticianers . . .. . . …. . . .1 . . 4 . . 0 . . ..20% . . ..87 . . 247
13 . . San Jose SkyForce. . . . .... . . . . . 1 . . 4 . . 0 . . ..20% . . 106 . . 222
14 . . Pittsburgh Highlanders. . ... . . . .1 . . 4 . . 0 . . ..20% . . 124 . . 213
15 . . Sierra Vista Buffalos. . . . . . . . . . .0 . . 5 . . 0 . . ....0% . . ..76 . . 533
16 . . Southside Spartans. . . . . . . . . . . 0 . . 5 . . 0 . . ....0% . . ..44 . . 252



Rk__Team______________________W___L___T____%_____PF____PA__
..1 . . New Brunswick Scarlet Knights . .. . 5 . . 0 . . 0 . . 100% . . 474 . . .....32
..2 . . Gulf State Demons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 . . 0 . . 0 . . 100% . . 337 . . .....46
..3 . . Salem Cyber Hawks . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 . . 1 . . 0 . . ..80% . . 277 . . .....74
..4 . . Miami Makos . . . . . …..… .. . . . . . . . . 4 . . 1 . . 0 . . ..80% . . 297 . . .....63
..5 . . Miami Hammerheads . . . . . . . . . . . .4 . . 1 . . 0 . . ..80% . . 311 . . .....78
..6 . . Scranton Wilkes-Barre Menzingers . 4 . . 1 . . 0 . . ..80% . . 142 . . .....95
..7 . . Memphis Showboats . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 . . 2 . . 0 . . ..60% . . 150 . . ...167
..8 . . Detroit Outlaws . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 . . 3 . . 0 . . ..40% . . 128 . . ...177
..9 . . Atlanta Wolves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 . . 3 . . 0 . . ..40% . . 306 . . ...101
10 . . Houghton Gremlins . . . . . . . … . . . . 2 . . 3 . . 0 . . ..40% . . 294 . . .....68
11 . . Vice City Mambas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . 3 . . 0 . . ..40% . . 298 . . ...126
12 . . Las Vegas High Rollers . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 4 . . 0 . . ..20% . . 335 . . ...154
13 . . Akron Browns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 4 . . 0 . . ..20% . . 243 . . ...174
14 . . South Texas Skull Crushers . . . . . .1 . . 4 . . 0 . . ..20% . . ..40 . . ...548
15 . . The State of Texas Highwaymen . .0 . . 5 . . 0 . . ....0% . . ....6 . . 1,051
16 . . Michigan Rage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 . . 5 . . 0 . . ....0% . . ....0 . . ...684

Projected Standings:

Rk__Team____________________W___L___T____%_____PF____PA__
..1 . . Caprica Buccaneers. . . . . . . . . . . 16 . . ..0 . . 0 . . 100% . . ...958 . . ...202
..2 . . Uncle Sam's Misguided Children.15 . . ..1 . . 0 . . ..94% . . 1,235 . . ...334
..3 . . Chicago Maroons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . ..2 . . 0 . . ..88% . . ...699 . . ...225
..4 . . Rapid City Rushmores. . . . . . . . . 13 . . ..3 . . 0 . . ..81% . . ...795 . . ...310
..5 . . Anchorage Wolves. . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 . . ..4 . . 0 . . ..75% . . ...816 . . ...374
..6 . . DVDTalk Otters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 . . ..5 . . 0 . . ..69% . . ...534 . . ...280
..7 . . Sioux Falls Storm. . . . . . . . ... . . . .10 . . ..6 . . 0 . . ..63% . . ...655 . . ...373
..8 . . Death Valley Shadowblades. . . . ...9 . . ..7 . . 0 . . ..56% . . ...584 . . ...435
..9 . . Midwest Mayhem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..8 . . ..8 . . 0 . . ..50% . . ...533 . . ...542
10 . . San Diego Silver Shock. . . . . . . . ..7 . . ..9 . . 0 . . ..44% . . ...602 . . ...396
11 . . Rocky Mountain Thunder . . . . . . ..6 . . 10 . . 0 . . ..38% . . ...428 . . ...593
12 . . Ivalice Tacticianers . . .. . . …. . . ...4 . . 12 . . 0 . . ..25% . . ...342 . . ...841
13 . . Pittsburgh Highlanders. . ... . . . ...3 . . 13 . . 0 . . ..19% . . ...390 . . ...886
14 . . San Jose SkyForce. . . . .... . . . . . ..2 . . 14 . . 0 . . ..13% . . ...304 . . ...856
15 . . Southside Spartans. . . . . . . . . . . ..1 . . 15 . . 0 . . ....6% . . ...169 . . ...772
16 . . Sierra Vista Buffalos. . . . . . . . . . ...0 . . 16 . . 0 . . ....0% . . ...260 . . 1,736



Rk__Team______________________W___L___T____%_____PF____PA__
..1 . . New Brunswick Scarlet Knights . .. . 16 . . ..0 . . 0 . . 100% . . 1,882 . . ...118
..2 . . Gulf State Demons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 . . ..1 . . 0 . . ..94% . . 1,316 . . ...142
..3 . . Salem Cyber Hawks . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . ..2 . . 0 . . ..88% . . 2,578 . . ...216
..4 . . Miami Makos . . . . . …..… .. . . . . . . . . 13 . . ..3 . . 0 . . ..81% . . 1,769 . . ...186
..5 . . Miami Hammerheads . . . . . . . . . . . .12 . . ..4 . . 0 . . ..75% . . 1,153 . . ...259
..6 . . Scranton Wilkes-Barre Menzingers . 11 . . ..5 . . 0 . . ..69% . . 1,361 . . ...290
..7 . . Houghton Gremlins . . . . . . . … . . . . ..9 . . ..7 . . 0 . . ..56% . . 1,802 . . ...251
..8 . . Atlanta Wolves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...9 . . ..7 . . 0 . . ..56% . . 1,971 . . ...341
..9 . . Detroit Outlaws . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...7 . . ..9 . . 0 . . ..44% . . 1,781 . . ...483
10 . . Memphis Showboats . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..6 . . 10 . . 0 . . ..38% . . 1,300 . . ...542
11 . . Las Vegas High Rollers . . . . . . . . . ..6 . . 10 . . 0 . . ..38% . . 2,363 . . ...578
12 . . Vice City Mambas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..5 . . 11 . . 0 . . ..31% . . 1,136 . . ...443
13 . . Akron Browns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..3 . . 13 . . 0 . . ..19% . . 1,457 . . 1,991
14 . . South Texas Skull Crushers . . . . . ...2 . . 14 . . 0 . . ..13% . . ...134 . . 1,743
15 . . The State of Texas Highwaymen . ...1 . . 15 . . 0 . . ....6% . . .....32 . . 5,079
16 . . Michigan Rage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..0 . . 16 . . 0 . . ....0% . . .......0 . . 10,309

Toughest Remaining Schedule:

Rk__Team____________________W___L___T____%_____PF____PA__
..1 . . Chicago Maroons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 . . 21 . . 0 . . 62% . . 2,145 . . 1,340
..2 . . Pittsburgh Highlanders. . ... . . . .32 . . 23 . . 0 . . 58% . . 2,149 . . 1,665
..3 . . Rocky Mountain Thunder . . . . . . 31 . . 24 . . 0 . . 56% . . 2,160 . . 1,895
..4 . . San Jose SkyForce. . . . .... . . . . . 29 . . 26 . . 0 . . 53% . . 1,929 . . 1,754
..5 . . Ivalice Tacticianers . . .. . . …. . . .28 . . 27 . . 0 . . 51% . . 2,129 . . 1,948
..6 . . Southside Spartans. . . . . . . . . . . 28 . . 27 . . 0 . . 51% . . 1,743 . . 1,914
..7 . . Uncle Sam's Misguided Children.28 . . 27 . . 0 . . 51% . . 1,678 . . 1,601
..8 . . Rapid City Rushmores. . . . . . . . . 27 . . 28 . . 0 . . 49% . . 2,074 . . 1,886
..9 . . DVDTalk Otters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 . . 28 . . 0 . . 49% . . 1,902 . . 2,026
10 . . San Diego Silver Shock. . . . . . . . 27 . . 28 . . 0 . . 49% . . 1,648 . . 1,912
11 . . Anchorage Wolves. . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 . . 29 . . 0 . . 47% . . 1,957 . . 1,973
12 . . Sioux Falls Storm. . . . . . . . ... . . . .26 . . 29 . . 0 . . 47% . . 1,951 . . 2,096
13 . . Sierra Vista Buffalos. . . . . . . . . . .26 . . 29 . . 0 . . 47% . . 1,555 . . 1,742
14 . . Death Valley Shadowblades. . . . .26 . . 29 . . 0 . . 47% . . 1,533 . . 1,689
15 . . Caprica Buccaneers. . . . . . . . . . . 23 . . 32 . . 0 . . 42% . . 1,789 . . 2,181
16 . . Midwest Mayhem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 . . 33 . . 0 . . 40% . . 1,424 . . 2,144



Rk__Team______________________W___L___T____%_____PF____PA__
..1 . . The State of Texas Highwaymen . .34 . . 21 . . 0 . . 62% . . 2,434 . . 2,101
..2 . . Memphis Showboats . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 . . 22 . . 0 . . 60% . . 2,479 . . 2,860
..3 . . Gulf State Demons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32 . . 23 . . 0 . . 58% . . 2,668 . . 2,063
..4 . . Miami Makos . . . . . …..… .. . . . . . . . . 31 . . 24 . . 0 . . 56% . . 2,268 . . 2,177
..5 . . Las Vegas High Rollers . . . . . . . . . 30 . . 25 . . 0 . . 55% . . 2,693 . . 2,121
..6 . . Miami Hammerheads . . . . . . . . . . . .29 . . 26 . . 0 . . 53% . . 2,501 . . 2,527
..7 . . Vice City Mambas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 . . 27 . . 0 . . 51% . . 2,852 . . 2,051
..8 . . Akron Browns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 . . 27 . . 0 . . 51% . . 2,800 . . 2,088
..9 . . Houghton Gremlins . . . . . . . … . . . . 27 . . 28 . . 0 . . 49% . . 2,749 . . 2,194
10 . . New Brunswick Scarlet Knights . .. . 27 . . 28 . . 0 . . 49% . . 2,656 . . 2,196
11 . . Scranton Wilkes-Barre Menzingers . 27 . . 28 . . 0 . . 49% . . 2,554 . . 3,050
12 . . Michigan Rage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 . . 30 . . 0 . . 45% . . 2,476 . . 2,250
13 . . Atlanta Wolves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 . . 30 . . 0 . . 45% . . 2,399 . . 2,281
14 . . South Texas Skull Crushers . . . . . .23 . . 32 . . 0 . . 42% . . 2,212 . . 2,812
15 . . Salem Cyber Hawks . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 . . 34 . . 0 . . 38% . . 2,136 . . 3,233
16 . . Detroit Outlaws . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 . . 35 . . 0 . . 36% . . 2,141 . . 4,014

Scores:

Rapid City (32) over Sioux Falls (21)
DVDTalk (48) over Pittsburgh (12)
Caprica (21) over Chicago (18)
Midwest (108) over Sierra (18)
Anchorage (50) over Rocky Mountain (17)
USMC (116) over Ivalice (13)
San Diego (55) over Southside (8)
Death Valley (62) over San Jose (16)

NBSK (200+) over Akron (7)
Gulf State (514) over SoT (0)
Hammerheads (19) over Houghton (15)
Scranton (36) over Vegas (33)
Makos (40) over Memphis (11)
Salem (200+) over Michigan (0)
Detroit (157) over So Texas (3)
Atlanta (51) over Vice City (26)

OK, you answered one quetion I've had about this thing, I hope you will answer another.

Does this thing generate what it predicts the scores will be?

I am just curious.

Originally posted by Len67
OK, you answered one quetion I've had about this thing, I hope you will answer another.

Does this thing generate what it predicts the scores will be?

I am just curious.

Yes it does, but it's really not that accurate until 7 games in or so. After that it's pretty close. The first few weeks create very crazy scores, but interesting to look at.

Originally posted by matta
Scores:

Midwest (108) over Sierra (18)



Originally posted by jpjn94
Originally posted by Len67

OK, you answered one quetion I've had about this thing, I hope you will answer another.

Does this thing generate what it predicts the scores will be?

I am just curious.

Yes it does, but it's really not that accurate until 7 games in or so. After that it's pretty close. The first few weeks create very crazy scores, but interesting to look at.

I take it doesn't look at changes to the roster, etc. And I hope that this is a very crazy one.

Originally posted by Hate Sighed

I take it doesn't look at changes to the roster, etc. And I hope that this is a very crazy one.

You are correct ... it doesn't look at any of that stuff; roster changes, game planning, etc.

In your case, you've built & rebuilt your roster in 5 games.

Or, in our case, we finally realized (with the help of both Chicago & USMC) that we should be running the ball a hell of a lot more than putting it up. (duh moment of the season)

Glad we could help.

Originally posted by Len67
OK, you answered one quetion I've had about this thing, I hope you will answer another.

Does this thing generate what it predicts the scores will be?

I am just curious.

I don't 100% know for sure because the equations are locked, but from what I can see...

It looks at scores against similar teams and extrapolates. So, for instance, if USMC beats Rocky Mountain 40-10, and Chicago beats Rocky Mountain 20-10, it assumes at Chicago and USMC have the same defense but USMC has an offense that's twice as good. So whatever it predicts for Chicago's points scored, it will double that for USMC.

So how does it know to make it a 40-20 game and not a 14-7 game? That's based on scores against similar teams (if it thinks Chicago and Midway are comparable teams, it looks at the number of points USMC scored on Midway).

This obviously creates a problem when each team has only played 1 or 2 opponents. It doesn't know the comparable teams yet (it tries to guess based on points scored, but like I mentioned before, a 20-0 win over NBSK is the same as a 20-0 win over Michigan in that first week).

After about 4 weeks or so, the win/loss predictions get better, and after 8 weeks or so, the scores get pretty good. Last week we saw some close score predictions.

But as mentioned, it can't account for mid-season roster changes, boosting, chemistry, or new game plans. It can only look at past games and use those to predict future games. Otherwise, it would take too long to update the spreadsheet every day.

Matta;

Thanks as I dodn't know shit about that thing until I talked to you about it. I think I get the full idea about it now. It basically does get better aroung 8-10 games, and might be at it's best after 12 games. The more info, the better it gets.

Right. And the best part is that it's not biased. If I'm looking at the east, I'm predicting NBSK to win every (non-playoff) game, because they usually do. The spreadsheet doesn't fall into those patterns - it calls them as it sees them and you can't really argue with it.

Of course, that means it can't adjust for things that I mentioned, so there are positives and negatives. But overall, I think it's a good objective way to look at games.

Underdogs AGAIN!! WHOOOO!!!!

Originally posted by matta
Scores:

Death Valley (62) over San Jose (16)




I hope this is right, I hope.

Originally posted by matta

Death Valley (62) over San Jose (16)


Once again evidence the spreadsheet is limited by it's inability to take builds & matchups into consideration. Wow. It helps significantly that San Jose has had to fight through DVD, San Diego, Sioux Falls, and Anchorage thus far.

If I had to guess, whomever wins won't have a double digit margin of victory. We've both developed from gut jobs around the same time, and no matter the results against common opponents, always end up in tight games that hinge on just one or two plays.

Season 4: 13-6
Season 3: 10-0