Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League (OPL) post wk 12 games...
FFLW Caninites Zeta 171.24
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 164.23
Brisbane Heat Zeta 160.49
New England Burning Pride Alpha 138.63
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 108.40
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 107.42
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 106.30
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 104.14
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 80.73
East Coast Tide Alpha 78.05
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 74.28
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 69.95
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 66.20
Brisbane Gods Zeta 66.05
Canberra Strike Alpha 52.98
IC Incinerators Zeta 52.02
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 49.07
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 7.92
Big Island Growas Zeta -8.61
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -13.47
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -17.35
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -23.63
Perth Scorpions Alpha -47.38
Saipan Fighters Zeta -53.75
Auckland Flames Alpha -67.53
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -171.74
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -176.57
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -183.15
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -190.37
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -203.03
Australian Marauders Zeta -227.15
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -274.38
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Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 13 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 12 predictions: 13-3-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 149-41-2
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.895
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.894
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.868
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.802
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.795
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.728
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.719
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.713
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.672
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.642
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.633
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.605
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.600
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.564
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.506
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.505
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.495
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.494
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.436
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.400
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.395
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.367
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.358
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.328
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.287
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.281
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.272
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.205
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.198
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.132
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.106
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.105
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: Rawle Tech Titans (9-3-0) at **Vanuatu Kava Sharks (9-3-0) [game rating: 208.28]
Silver: **Fiji Sea Turtles (9-3-0) at Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels (8-4-0) [game rating: 148.57]
Bronze: **New England Burning Pride (10-2-0) at Brantford Mustangs (7-5-0) [game rating: 132.41]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 12 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
FFLW Caninites Zeta 171.24
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 164.23
Brisbane Heat Zeta 160.49
New England Burning Pride Alpha 138.63
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 108.40
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 107.42
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 106.30
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 104.14
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 80.73
East Coast Tide Alpha 78.05
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 74.28
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 69.95
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 66.20
Brisbane Gods Zeta 66.05
Canberra Strike Alpha 52.98
IC Incinerators Zeta 52.02
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 49.07
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 7.92
Big Island Growas Zeta -8.61
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -13.47
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -17.35
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -23.63
Perth Scorpions Alpha -47.38
Saipan Fighters Zeta -53.75
Auckland Flames Alpha -67.53
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -171.74
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -176.57
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -183.15
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -190.37
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -203.03
Australian Marauders Zeta -227.15
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -274.38
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 13 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 12 predictions: 13-3-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 149-41-2
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.895
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.894
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.868
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.802
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.795
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.728
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.719
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.713
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.672
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.642
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.633
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.605
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.600
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.564
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.506
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.505
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.495
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.494
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.436
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.400
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.395
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.367
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.358
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.328
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.287
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.281
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.272
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.205
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.198
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.132
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.106
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.105
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: Rawle Tech Titans (9-3-0) at **Vanuatu Kava Sharks (9-3-0) [game rating: 208.28]
Silver: **Fiji Sea Turtles (9-3-0) at Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels (8-4-0) [game rating: 148.57]
Bronze: **New England Burning Pride (10-2-0) at Brantford Mustangs (7-5-0) [game rating: 132.41]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 12 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
