Warrior General Games

Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League (OPL) post wk 9 games...

FFLivewire Cans Zeta 156.09
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 124.12
FFLW Caninites Zeta 123.60
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 120.76
Brisbane Heat Zeta 119.52
East Coast Tide Alpha 106.39
New England Burning Pride Alpha 105.50
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 105.05
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 92.78
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 90.56
Canberra Strike Alpha 70.60
Brisbane Gods Zeta 51.69
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 47.82
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 30.45
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 23.14
IC Incinerators Zeta 13.62
Big Island Growas Zeta 4.81
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha -0.03
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -1.56
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -16.78
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -17.91
Perth Scorpions Alpha -27.66
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -30.49
Auckland Flames Alpha -60.97
Saipan Fighters Zeta -74.13
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -122.75
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -132.80
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -146.56
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -162.51
Australian Marauders Zeta -170.36
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -192.73
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -229.27

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Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 10 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...

Week 9 predictions: 16-0-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 112-30-2

New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.876
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.832
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.811
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.694
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.631
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.618
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.604
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.594
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.591
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.559
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.546
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.544
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.543
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.533
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.523
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.503
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.497
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.477
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.467
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.457
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.456
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.454
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.441
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.409
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.406
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.396
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.382
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.369
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.306
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.189
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.168
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.124

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Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:


Gold: Brisbane Heat (8-1-0) at **FFLivewire Cans (9-0-0) [game rating: 239.04]

Silver: West Scranton Invaders (7-2-0) at **Fiji Sea Turtles (8-1-0) [game rating: 185.56]

Bronze: Brisbane Gods (5-4-0) at **Rawle Tech Titans (8-1-0) [game rating: 103.38]


**Favored in Predicted Win Probability

-----------------------------------------------------------

Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 9 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.

Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.


Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0

These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].


NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.

Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.

Originally posted by xp0
Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League (OPL) post wk 9 games...

FFLivewire Cans Zeta 156.09
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 124.12
FFLW Caninites Zeta 123.60
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 120.76
Brisbane Heat Zeta 119.52
East Coast Tide Alpha 106.39
New England Burning Pride Alpha 105.50
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 105.05
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 92.78
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 90.56
Canberra Strike Alpha 70.60
Brisbane Gods Zeta 51.69
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 47.82
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 30.45
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 23.14
IC Incinerators Zeta 13.62
Big Island Growas Zeta 4.81
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha -0.03
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -1.56
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -16.78
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -17.91
Perth Scorpions Alpha -27.66
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -30.49
Auckland Flames Alpha -60.97
Saipan Fighters Zeta -74.13
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -122.75
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -132.80
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -146.56
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -162.51
Australian Marauders Zeta -170.36
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -192.73
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -229.27

-----------------------------------------------------------

Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 10 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...

Week 9 predictions: 16-0-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 112-30-2

New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.876
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.832
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.811
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.694
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.631
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.618
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.604
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.594
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.591
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.559
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.546
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.544
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.543
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.533
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.523
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.503
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.497
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.477
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.467
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.457
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.456
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.454
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.441
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.409
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.406
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.396
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.382
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.369
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.306
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.189
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.168
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.124

-----------------------------------------------------------

Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:


Gold: Brisbane Heat (8-1-0) at **FFLivewire Cans (9-0-0) [game rating: 239.04]

Silver: West Scranton Invaders (7-2-0) at **Fiji Sea Turtles (8-1-0) [game rating: 185.56]

Bronze: Brisbane Gods (5-4-0) at **Rawle Tech Titans (8-1-0) [game rating: 103.38]


**Favored in Predicted Win Probability

-----------------------------------------------------------

Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 9 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.

Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.


Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0

These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].


NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.

Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.

Thanks for doing..

Oh man.... our conference is so top-heavy that 7-2 gets you a road game in the playoffs. And now we get the team that knocked us out of the playoffs last season. We finally got the Newcastle monkey off our back and now it is time to exact our revenge for the playoffs last year. And, of course, just try to keep pace in this brutal conference. There is no rest here in this league....

.... well, we did get to play Dogdandy last game, but otherwise, you know what I mean.

Originally posted by JuniorMcSpiffy
Oh man.... our conference is so top-heavy that 7-2 gets you a road game in the playoffs. And now we get the team that knocked us out of the playoffs last season. We finally got the Newcastle monkey off our back and now it is time to exact our revenge for the playoffs last year. And, of course, just try to keep pace in this brutal conference. There is no rest here in this league....

.... well, we did get to play Dogdandy last game, but otherwise, you know what I mean.

Yeah, but you let Dogdandy score. I'd consider that a "loss" if I were you.

But yeah, Alpha is definitely tough at the top. We're (Tonga) heading into a stretch of playing Fiji (7-2), Canberra (7-2), New England (8-1) and East Coast (8-1) in 4 of the final 6 games. That stretch will decide the final standings.

Originally posted by McGruffHawk
Originally posted by JuniorMcSpiffy

Oh man.... our conference is so top-heavy that 7-2 gets you a road game in the playoffs. And now we get the team that knocked us out of the playoffs last season. We finally got the Newcastle monkey off our back and now it is time to exact our revenge for the playoffs last year. And, of course, just try to keep pace in this brutal conference. There is no rest here in this league....

.... well, we did get to play Dogdandy last game, but otherwise, you know what I mean.

Yeah, but you let Dogdandy score. I'd consider that a "loss" if I were you.

But yeah, Alpha is definitely tough at the top. We're (Tonga) heading into a stretch of playing Fiji (7-2), Canberra (7-2), New England (8-1) and East Coast (8-1) in 4 of the final 6 games. That stretch will decide the final standings.

Pssst.... that's Fiji (8-1). You may consider giving up 7 to Dogdandy a loss, but the league standings don't agree.

My apologies, kind sir, and flubbing your record. It would've been funny had I intended it, considering your "loss" to Dogdandy, but it was an inadvertent memory lapse.

That, and according to my "Machine" you should be, what, 3-6 by now . Really, at 7-2 I'm being kind.

Great Gold and Silver games this week.

Originally posted by bdnannac
Great Gold and Silver games this week.

No doubt, I am really excited for our game with the Cans.