Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League (OPL) post wk 7 games...
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 130.32
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 94.68
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 93.29
FFLW Caninites Zeta 91.40
Brisbane Heat Zeta 84.58
East Coast Tide Alpha 82.90
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 81.89
New England Burning Pride Alpha 78.80
Canberra Strike Alpha 77.68
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 58.88
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 57.38
IC Incinerators Zeta 50.98
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 47.14
Brisbane Gods Zeta 40.36
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 30.86
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 25.74
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 25.45
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 23.02
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 6.07
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -18.61
Perth Scorpions Alpha -26.10
Big Island Growas Zeta -26.63
Auckland Flames Alpha -31.12
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -31.95
Saipan Fighters Zeta -77.25
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -78.73
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -100.44
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -116.75
Australian Marauders Zeta -143.68
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -162.46
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -169.51
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -198.19
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Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 8 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 7 predictions: 14-2-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 81-29-2
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.833
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.729
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.672
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.653
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.615
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.615
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.615
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.614
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.598
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.593
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.578
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.575
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.563
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.538
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.536
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.506
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.494
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.464
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.462
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.437
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.425
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.422
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.407
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.402
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.386
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.385
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.385
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.385
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.347
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.328
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.271
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.167
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Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: West Scranton Invaders (5-2-0) at **Canberra Strike (6-1-0) [game rating: 114.75]
Silver: **FFLW Caninites (6-1-0) at IC Incinerators (5-2-0) [game rating: 101.96]
Bronze: Tongan Crimson Auha (4-3-0) at **Rawle Tech Titans (6-1-0) [game rating: 61.72]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 7 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 130.32
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 94.68
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 93.29
FFLW Caninites Zeta 91.40
Brisbane Heat Zeta 84.58
East Coast Tide Alpha 82.90
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 81.89
New England Burning Pride Alpha 78.80
Canberra Strike Alpha 77.68
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 58.88
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 57.38
IC Incinerators Zeta 50.98
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 47.14
Brisbane Gods Zeta 40.36
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 30.86
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 25.74
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 25.45
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 23.02
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 6.07
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -18.61
Perth Scorpions Alpha -26.10
Big Island Growas Zeta -26.63
Auckland Flames Alpha -31.12
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -31.95
Saipan Fighters Zeta -77.25
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -78.73
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -100.44
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -116.75
Australian Marauders Zeta -143.68
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -162.46
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -169.51
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -198.19
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 8 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 7 predictions: 14-2-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 81-29-2
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.833
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.729
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.672
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.653
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.615
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.615
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.615
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.614
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.598
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.593
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.578
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.575
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.563
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.538
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.536
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.506
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.494
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.464
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.462
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.437
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.425
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.422
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.407
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.402
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.386
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.385
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.385
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.385
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.347
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.328
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.271
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.167
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: West Scranton Invaders (5-2-0) at **Canberra Strike (6-1-0) [game rating: 114.75]
Silver: **FFLW Caninites (6-1-0) at IC Incinerators (5-2-0) [game rating: 101.96]
Bronze: Tongan Crimson Auha (4-3-0) at **Rawle Tech Titans (6-1-0) [game rating: 61.72]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 7 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
