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Forum > Pro Leagues > Zeta Playoff Picture, Week 14
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Bladnach
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Originally posted by crazy454
Originally posted by chronoaug

damn what was the energy on that play. seems slower than i've seen him in other replays


there is no energy bar in that replay.


such primitive times...
 
SunshineMan89
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Originally posted by dimmy finster
Osaka is the key to everything.


If Cincy beat Osaka, Cincy is in (probably).

Lincoln also plays Osaka. If Lincoln beat Osaka, they'll also be 9-7 and hold tiebreakers over Monowi
and Moose JAw (but not Gunny, or Cincy).


Thing is, it doesn't work that way (individual head-to-head tiebreakers) from what I understand. For instance, Lincoln beat Monowi head-to-head, but isn't likely to actually hold a tiebreaker over us unless we're the only two 9-7 teams.

It's based on the internal records against the tied teams.

For instance, right now there's a good chance that Monowi, Moose Jaw, Gunny's, Cincy, and Lincoln all end up 9-7 and vying for three playoff spots (this assumed that Carthage wins out, Gunny's beats Moose Jaw but loses to Saigon, and Osaka beats Cincy and Lincoln).

In this scenario, the tiebreakers would go . . .

Monowi: 3-1
Gunny's 3-1
Lincoln 2-2
Moose Jaw 1-3
Cincy 1-3

With the ties being decided by point differential. Of course, this is all moot if Carthage chokes a game or if any of the other bubble teams win out. Hypothetically, it could take as many as 10 or as few as 8 games to make the playoffs. But the above numbers show that Moose Jaw/Cincy really, really, really need to win out.
 
5STAR
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Sunshineman


Show me a scenario where Gunny goes back to SAPL
 
SunshineMan89
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If they lose both games?

Or if they beat Saigon but lose to Moose Jaw and Cincy/Moose Jaw win out, which would most likely end with Cincy/Moose Jaw/Monowi in the final three slots.

Basically, if you're 7-7 every game is must win, and if you're 8-6 w/bad tiebreaks (Cincy, maybe Moose Jaw) you also want to win out. Carthage is probably in if they can avoid choking their last two games, and Monowi is probably in due to good tiebreaks if we can avoid choking vs. Speyside (see Garudas, Krungthep).

But the Gunny's/Moose Jaw game will probably decide the last playoff spot. Moose Jaw might go 10-6, which would lock up a spot for them, but they control their destiny.

Because of the way the tiebreaks work there are all kinds of wacky scenarios.
 
jamz
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No kicka the field goal when down 7 with 4 seconds to go, capiche?
 
5STAR
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Originally posted by SunshineMan89
If they lose both games?

Or if they beat Saigon but lose to Moose Jaw and Cincy/Moose Jaw win out, which would most likely end with Cincy/Moose Jaw/Monowi in the final three slots.

Basically, if you're 7-7 every game is must win, and if you're 8-6 w/bad tiebreaks (Cincy, maybe Moose Jaw) you also want to win out. Carthage is probably in if they can avoid choking their last two games, and Monowi is probably in due to good tiebreaks if we can avoid choking vs. Speyside (see Garudas, Krungthep).

But the Gunny's/Moose Jaw game will probably decide the last playoff spot. Moose Jaw might go 10-6, which would lock up a spot for them, but they control their destiny.

Because of the way the tiebreaks work there are all kinds of wacky scenarios.


if Lincoln and Cincy go 2-0 and Gunny goes 1-1...does Gunny demote?
 
Bladnach
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No i think licoln would be out of luck. Gunny has the tiebreaker over both those teams.

Basically 1 of cincy/alpine/gunny/lincoln will make the playoff. I think carthage, monowi, blaze and moosejaw are sorta safe or at least in good shape. Of those 4 teams alpine has 3 wins, gunny has 2 wins, cincy has 1, lincoln has 0.
 
NiborRis
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Originally posted by 5STAR
Show me a scenario where Gunny goes back to SAPL


Originally posted by SunshineMan89
If they lose both games?


That's the most straightforward one right there, and it's certainly possible. Any of the 8-win teams drop 2 games and they have to start hoping for a lot of help (like, say, Lincoln and Alpine losing at least one game each and hopefully 2).

All 8 games next week have playoff implications on who's in and who's out.

Originally posted by 5STAR
if Lincoln and Cincy go 2-0 and Gunny goes 1-1...does Gunny demote?


Cinci and Lincoln won't be tied if they both go 2-0. Gunny goes 1-1 and they'd be at 9 wins; Lincoln going 2-0 and they're 9 wins. Cinci would have 10 at 2-0. Who stays/goes depends on who else is at 9 wins, though - there's a million tiebreaker combinations. (okay probably only a few hundred)
 
bhall43
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how can anyone think that Indy demotes? How can anyone think Lincoln has a chance outside of 2 100+ point ass whoopings for like 3 teams? lolz.
 
43Hitman
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Originally posted by bhall43
how can anyone think that Indy demotes? How can anyone think Lincoln has a chance outside of 2 100+ point ass whoopings for like 3 teams? lolz.


Lmao, Indy in NOT demoting. Who said that? I'm too lazy to go look.
 
Galkuris
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Originally posted by 43Hitman
Lmao, Indy in NOT demoting. Who said that? I'm too lazy to go look.


I don't think anyone did, he may mean someone else.
 
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