Capped track star and quick both to 15.
What now?
Long reach?
Anyone had success with any of the non attribute boosters
What now?
Long reach?
Anyone had success with any of the non attribute boosters
Pagypie
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ball hawk seems iffy to me but some people have liked it; 1% bonus AFTER a tipped ball seems... too situational.
i've heard good and bad things about long reach; i wonder if anyone has ever compared long reach to 3rd down stopper to see which is better.
if i were you, i'd take football genius
i've heard good and bad things about long reach; i wonder if anyone has ever compared long reach to 3rd down stopper to see which is better.
if i were you, i'd take football genius
mmuhr
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Some1 has compared 3rddown stopper to long reach and concluded that 3rddown stopper is better. It was in a private CB forum but he had the math and everything. Maybe I can find it.
mmuhr
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In response to the claim that 3rddown stopper works on only 25% of the plays.
Posted by Brock86 in another forum
But up to +45% to your deflection rolls on those 3rd and longs is pretty darn good, especially since those are plays where you should really want to have the bonus.
IMO, Ball Hawk sounds pretty crappy. Just go for stuff that gives +1% bonuses all the time, ie Track Star, Quick, etc.
Some math to compare Long Reach with Third Down Stopper, just for fun. Let D be the total chance to deflect, and d be the base chance to deflect.
3rd Down Stopper adds 45% chance, so D(3rd) = d + 0.45d = 1.45 d
Long Reach gives 75% chance for a fresh roll on a failure. Chance to fail is (1-d). Thus, D(LR) = d + (1-d)*0.75d = 1.75d - 0.75 (d^2)
Equating D's and solving gives the solutions d = 0, d = 0.4 (quadratic formula ftw). d=0 is meaningless; d=0.4 implies that at 40% base chance to deflect, the 2 VAs are having an equal overall effect. Plugging in a test value (eg d=0.5) reveals that Long Reach is LESS effective at those higher base chances. This makes sense - LR only works if your first attempt fails.
IMO they're both well worth getting; which one to get first is a matter of choice.
And I completely agree with Enkidu.. the +1% stat VAs are boring and don't add any depth or uniqueness to your player, which is really what the VA system should be about.
Posted by Brock86 in another forum
But up to +45% to your deflection rolls on those 3rd and longs is pretty darn good, especially since those are plays where you should really want to have the bonus.
IMO, Ball Hawk sounds pretty crappy. Just go for stuff that gives +1% bonuses all the time, ie Track Star, Quick, etc.
Some math to compare Long Reach with Third Down Stopper, just for fun. Let D be the total chance to deflect, and d be the base chance to deflect.
3rd Down Stopper adds 45% chance, so D(3rd) = d + 0.45d = 1.45 d
Long Reach gives 75% chance for a fresh roll on a failure. Chance to fail is (1-d). Thus, D(LR) = d + (1-d)*0.75d = 1.75d - 0.75 (d^2)
Equating D's and solving gives the solutions d = 0, d = 0.4 (quadratic formula ftw). d=0 is meaningless; d=0.4 implies that at 40% base chance to deflect, the 2 VAs are having an equal overall effect. Plugging in a test value (eg d=0.5) reveals that Long Reach is LESS effective at those higher base chances. This makes sense - LR only works if your first attempt fails.
IMO they're both well worth getting; which one to get first is a matter of choice.
And I completely agree with Enkidu.. the +1% stat VAs are boring and don't add any depth or uniqueness to your player, which is really what the VA system should be about.
Last edited Mar 24, 2009 14:40:55
SunshineMan89
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Football genius or Long Reach would be my choices. The problem is that while I'd prefer to invest in non-attribute boosters, I haven't really seen positive effects from many of them when others have used them.
merk
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Copied from an earlier post of mine (please do not copy this to other forums!). Was just asked which is better (LR or 3DS)...here are my thoughts:
I think it depends on how likely you think your CB is to knock down a pass when he has a chance...(you'll have to watch game film to find that one out)...Lets to do the math for three cases (20%, 50%, and 80%) to see. We'll do all calculations for 5 and 10 points in long arms as well as 5 and 10 points in 3rd down stopper and 5/5 points in long arms/3rd down stopper.
Case 1: 5 points in Long arms
Case 2: 5 points in 3rd Down Stopper
Case 3: 10 points in Long arms
Case 4: 10 points in 3rd Down Stopper
Case 5: 5 points in each
20% Chance of Knocking Down the Pass:
1) 5 points in long arm gives the chance of PD: 20% + 80% * 5*3%*20% = 22.4%
2) 5 points in 3rd Down Stopper gives the chance of PD: 20% * (1 + .03*5) = 23.0%
3) 10 points in long arm gives the chance of PD: 20% + 80% * 10*3%*20% = 24.8%
4) 10 points in 3rd Down Stopper gives the chance of PD: 20% * (1 + .03*10) = 26.0%
5) 5 points in each gives the chance of PD: 20% * (1 + .03*5) + 80% * 5*3%*20%* (1 + .03*5) = 23.0% + 2.76% = 25.76%
50% Chance of Knocking Down the Pass:
1) 5 points in long arm gives the chance of PD: 50% + 50% * 5*3%*50% = 53.75%
2) 5 points in 3rd Down Stopper gives the chance of PD: 50% * (1 + .03*5) = 57.5%
3) 10 points in long arm gives the chance of PD: 50% + 50% * 10*3%*50% = 57.5%
4) 10 points in 3rd Down Stopper gives the chance of PD: 50% * (1 + .03*10) = 65.0%
5) 5 points in each gives the chance of PD: 50% * (1 + .03*5) + 50% * 5*3%*50%* (1 + .03*5) = 57.5% + 4.31% = 25.76%
80% Chance of Knocking Down the Pass:
1) 5 points in long arm gives the chance of PD: 80% + 20% * 5*3%*80% = 82.4%
2) 5 points in 3rd Down Stopper gives the chance of PD: 80% * (1 + .03*5) = 92.0%
3) 10 points in long arm gives the chance of PD: 80% + 20% * 10*3%*80% = 84.8%
4) 10 points in 3rd Down Stopper gives the chance of PD: 80% * (1 + .03*10) = 104%
5) 5 points in each gives the chance of PD: 80% * (1 + .03*5) + 20% * 5*3%*80%* (1 + .03*5) = 92.0% + 2.76% = 94.76%
Obviously, a CB's chances of deflecting a pass vary from pass to pass depending on CB positioning, etc.
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Clearly 3DS gives a higher percentage but on fewer plays (only 3rd downs, so less than 1/3rd of defensive plays). On the other hand, not yielding a completion on 1st down only forces 2nd down...not yielding a completion on 3rd down forces a punt.
Also, 3DS might be the best way to combat the crazy completion percentages offenses are having on 3rd and very long...
I think it depends on how likely you think your CB is to knock down a pass when he has a chance...(you'll have to watch game film to find that one out)...Lets to do the math for three cases (20%, 50%, and 80%) to see. We'll do all calculations for 5 and 10 points in long arms as well as 5 and 10 points in 3rd down stopper and 5/5 points in long arms/3rd down stopper.
Case 1: 5 points in Long arms
Case 2: 5 points in 3rd Down Stopper
Case 3: 10 points in Long arms
Case 4: 10 points in 3rd Down Stopper
Case 5: 5 points in each
20% Chance of Knocking Down the Pass:
1) 5 points in long arm gives the chance of PD: 20% + 80% * 5*3%*20% = 22.4%
2) 5 points in 3rd Down Stopper gives the chance of PD: 20% * (1 + .03*5) = 23.0%
3) 10 points in long arm gives the chance of PD: 20% + 80% * 10*3%*20% = 24.8%
4) 10 points in 3rd Down Stopper gives the chance of PD: 20% * (1 + .03*10) = 26.0%
5) 5 points in each gives the chance of PD: 20% * (1 + .03*5) + 80% * 5*3%*20%* (1 + .03*5) = 23.0% + 2.76% = 25.76%
50% Chance of Knocking Down the Pass:
1) 5 points in long arm gives the chance of PD: 50% + 50% * 5*3%*50% = 53.75%
2) 5 points in 3rd Down Stopper gives the chance of PD: 50% * (1 + .03*5) = 57.5%
3) 10 points in long arm gives the chance of PD: 50% + 50% * 10*3%*50% = 57.5%
4) 10 points in 3rd Down Stopper gives the chance of PD: 50% * (1 + .03*10) = 65.0%
5) 5 points in each gives the chance of PD: 50% * (1 + .03*5) + 50% * 5*3%*50%* (1 + .03*5) = 57.5% + 4.31% = 25.76%
80% Chance of Knocking Down the Pass:
1) 5 points in long arm gives the chance of PD: 80% + 20% * 5*3%*80% = 82.4%
2) 5 points in 3rd Down Stopper gives the chance of PD: 80% * (1 + .03*5) = 92.0%
3) 10 points in long arm gives the chance of PD: 80% + 20% * 10*3%*80% = 84.8%
4) 10 points in 3rd Down Stopper gives the chance of PD: 80% * (1 + .03*10) = 104%
5) 5 points in each gives the chance of PD: 80% * (1 + .03*5) + 20% * 5*3%*80%* (1 + .03*5) = 92.0% + 2.76% = 94.76%
Obviously, a CB's chances of deflecting a pass vary from pass to pass depending on CB positioning, etc.
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Clearly 3DS gives a higher percentage but on fewer plays (only 3rd downs, so less than 1/3rd of defensive plays). On the other hand, not yielding a completion on 1st down only forces 2nd down...not yielding a completion on 3rd down forces a punt.
Also, 3DS might be the best way to combat the crazy completion percentages offenses are having on 3rd and very long...
claykenny
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I believe Track Star, Quick, and Football Genius should be your first priority. If your base attributes are already high, you can get around 8-10 free points for each of your key attributes. If you're at the 4:1 speed cap and put 15 veteran points into Track Star, thats a +10 boost to your speed. That's equivalent to 44-45 SP or 2+ levels worth of equipment upgrades.
The Long Reach, 3rd Down Stopper, et al. are situational. Even if you're base attributes give you a base 50% chance to knock down a pass, the calculations above show that putting points into these will give you a very modest boost and only in specific situations. Since your chance of knocking down a pass is determined by your core attributes on EVERY down, including 3rd and 4th down, wouldn't it make sense to improve your player in every situation? Sure, a deflected pass on 1st down leads to a 2nd down and a deflected pass on 3rd down leads to a punt. A catch in either situation can lead to a first down or a touchdown. A boost on 3rd down doesn't do much good if you're giving up completions on 1st and 2nd down. Third downs don't account for less than 33% of defensive plays. They account for far less than 33% of defensive plays. Is a boost on 3rd and goal from the five more valuable than a boost on 1st and 2nd down and goal from the five? No, especially since the frequency of 1st and 2nd downs in a game are much higher than 3rd downs and a score before 3rd down prevents your bonus from being triggered.
Call it the "Ben Rothlisberger effect". Talking heads on ESPN attribute his success to his conversion rate on 3rd downs. Is it honestly realistic that he boosts his ability or gives more effort on 3rd down? There's a reason why, given a large enough sample, elite quarterbacks convert more often on 3rd down. It's because they convert more on EVERY down. They are superior players. If I told you Kerry Collins converted on more 3rd downs last year than Peyton Manning, who would you prefer to have a quarterback on 3rd down?
The Long Reach, 3rd Down Stopper, et al. are situational. Even if you're base attributes give you a base 50% chance to knock down a pass, the calculations above show that putting points into these will give you a very modest boost and only in specific situations. Since your chance of knocking down a pass is determined by your core attributes on EVERY down, including 3rd and 4th down, wouldn't it make sense to improve your player in every situation? Sure, a deflected pass on 1st down leads to a 2nd down and a deflected pass on 3rd down leads to a punt. A catch in either situation can lead to a first down or a touchdown. A boost on 3rd down doesn't do much good if you're giving up completions on 1st and 2nd down. Third downs don't account for less than 33% of defensive plays. They account for far less than 33% of defensive plays. Is a boost on 3rd and goal from the five more valuable than a boost on 1st and 2nd down and goal from the five? No, especially since the frequency of 1st and 2nd downs in a game are much higher than 3rd downs and a score before 3rd down prevents your bonus from being triggered.
Call it the "Ben Rothlisberger effect". Talking heads on ESPN attribute his success to his conversion rate on 3rd downs. Is it honestly realistic that he boosts his ability or gives more effort on 3rd down? There's a reason why, given a large enough sample, elite quarterbacks convert more often on 3rd down. It's because they convert more on EVERY down. They are superior players. If I told you Kerry Collins converted on more 3rd downs last year than Peyton Manning, who would you prefer to have a quarterback on 3rd down?
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