Originally posted by awalker
Originally posted by Negronic
Originally posted by Tothehouse
It seems like this game is all about stacking percentages. 11.25% is a pretty solid number.
the bonus on re-rolls peaks at 11.25% if you have a 50% chance. it is MUCH lower if you have a low % chance to begin with.
Just curious, but how did you come up with that number?
statistics...
in order to calculate the probability of getting a PD you have to add the base probability of a PD to the modified probability of getting a PD with the LR ability.
P(pd) = the probability to PD a ball
P(-pd) = the probability to NOT pd a ball. this is equivalent to 1 - P(pd)
P(lr) = the probability of Long Reach activating. with 15 points that is 45%.
So, the net probability is....
P(pd) + [P(-pd)*P(pd)*P(lr)]
if you plug in numbers, the maximum the % differential ever gets is at 50% base which yields a 61.25% chance to PD.
Originally posted by Negronic
Originally posted by Tothehouse
It seems like this game is all about stacking percentages. 11.25% is a pretty solid number.
the bonus on re-rolls peaks at 11.25% if you have a 50% chance. it is MUCH lower if you have a low % chance to begin with.
Just curious, but how did you come up with that number?
statistics...
in order to calculate the probability of getting a PD you have to add the base probability of a PD to the modified probability of getting a PD with the LR ability.
P(pd) = the probability to PD a ball
P(-pd) = the probability to NOT pd a ball. this is equivalent to 1 - P(pd)
P(lr) = the probability of Long Reach activating. with 15 points that is 45%.
So, the net probability is....
P(pd) + [P(-pd)*P(pd)*P(lr)]
if you plug in numbers, the maximum the % differential ever gets is at 50% base which yields a 61.25% chance to PD.






























