Originally posted by NiborRis
Okay, ran a little script to look at how many wins it's going to take to get into Zeta playoffs.
Right now the 11 teams in contention have 22 games remaining between them, for just under 4.2 million scenarios.
In 8640 cases, it will take 10 wins to make the playoffs.
In 11,772 cases, at least one 7-9 team will make the playoffs.
More surprising to me is that there are a LOT of scenarios where 8 wins will make it - I figured 9 was going to be the minimum for sure.
9 wins: 2,257,345 scenarios (54%)
8 wins: 1,916,547 scenarios (46%)
Now, those %s don't mean much unless you're assuming each game outcome is equally likely (and they aren't) but still seems like a lot of paths for an 8-8 team to get in.
Because of that, I'm actually re-running this with the Revolution in the mix and their game against Korb (8.3 million scenarios) - I expect that will erase almost all of the 7-win cases.
I'll look at it again after today's games, which knocks it down to 15 games and just 32,768 scenarios (unless the Revolution win today, in which case they're still alive and it's 16 games and double the scenarios).I have to say that your posts are A+ every fucking time...
