Warrior General Games

Originally posted by BiggerBlue
This proves my point.

When you add up the games you are likely to have 0 bad games, 1 bad games, and 2 bad games it's a large amount and a significant chance you'll fall into that category. Thus proving my point that Streaky at 15 will likely earn you the chance of 0, 1, or 2 bad games, which is exactly my personal experiences.

Now, of course the chance for 3 to 4 to 5 are great too, but my point is exactly that, your chance for 0-2 bad games is as good as 3, or 4 or 5 and even 6 if you're unlucky enough.

It's funny watching a bunch of people keep not realizing how to interpret statistics and use the numbers the wrong way and keep on reaffirming each other's wrong premises and conclusions.

If this thread wins at anything it's the ignorance of people's understanding of advance mathematics.




Chances for 0-2 bad games ~ 26% ("a large amount" and a "significant chance" )
Chances for 3-4 bad games ~ 46%

You're not gonna give it up, do ya?

Originally posted by BiggerBlue
This proves my point.

When you add up the games you are likely to have 0 bad games, 1 bad games, and 2 bad games it's a large amount and a significant chance you'll fall into that category. Thus proving my point that Streaky at 15 will likely earn you the chance of 0, 1, or 2 bad games, which is exactly my personal experiences.

Now, of course the chance for 3 to 4 to 5 are great too, but my point is exactly that, your chance for 0-2 bad games is as good as 3, or 4 or 5 and even 6 if you're unlucky enough.

It's funny watching a bunch of people keep not realizing how to interpret statistics and use the numbers the wrong way and keep on reaffirming each other's wrong premises and conclusions.

If this thread wins at anything it's the ignorance of people's understanding of advance mathematics.
Please just stop. You were claiming that a dot with Streaky has a 78% chance of going the entire season without a bad game because the games are independent, which is a completely and laughably incorrect assertion. Your mistake is in confusing the fact that the odds of hitting a "good day" are completely independent from whether or not you hit a "good day" in the previous game with the chance of hitting 16 consecutive good days. When you start talking about consecutive events, then you have to start multiplying the probabilities.

Edit:
And to expand on what Hagalaz said, you being wrong but keeping it to yourself affects only you, and no one here really cares about that. It's when you post wrong information publicly that we have to deal with it, because someone naive might be confused and believe your nonsense. So just stop posting and then being wrong will not hurt anyone besides yourself.

Originally posted by jdbolick

Please just stop. You were claiming that a dot with Streaky has a 78% chance of going the entire season without a bad game because the games are independent, which is a completely and laughably incorrect assertion. Your mistake is in confusing the fact that the odds of hitting a "good day" are completely independent from whether or not you hit a "good day" in the previous game with the chance of hitting 16 consecutive good days. When you start talking about consecutive events, then you have to start multiplying the probabilities.

He didn't say that in those words. Only thing BiggerBlue was right about in this whole thread was the fact that the chance of hitting a good day is 78% for every independent game. And going on with the season if you have had three consecutive games in a hot streak you have the same 78% chance for the next and statistically better chances to go 16-0 Hot-Cold. But that's only when you calculate the chances mid season. BiggerBlue hasn't really got the point yet. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT PROBABILITIES BEFORE THE SHIT IS IN YOUR PANTS!!!!

honestly, this is like junior high level stuff...

Originally posted by BiggerBlue


If something is likely to happen 80% of the time each day, it is very possible and highly likely that all 16 games you're on a Good streak.


^ 1.6053% chance, wrong

Originally posted by BiggerBlue
This proves my point.

When you add up the games you are likely to have 0 bad games, 1 bad games, and 2 bad games it's a large amount and a significant chance you'll fall into that category. Thus proving my point that Streaky at 15 will likely earn you the chance of 0, 1, or 2 bad games, which is exactly my personal experiences.


^ 26.3847% wrong again, 26% =/= significant chance

Originally posted by BiggerBlue

Now, of course the chance for 3 to 4 to 5 are great too, but my point is exactly that, your chance for 0-2 bad games is as good as 3, or 4 or 5 and even 6 if you're unlucky enough.



Ok, let's do some advanced mathematical addition:
0-->2 bad games is 26.3847%
3-->6 bad games is 72.8637%
72.8637 > 26.3847....therefore your claim that 0-2 is as good as 3-6 is wrong again

Originally posted by BiggerBlue

It's funny watching a bunch of people keep not realizing how to interpret statistics and use the numbers the wrong way and keep on reaffirming each other's wrong premises and conclusions.

If this thread wins at anything it's the ignorance of people's understanding of advance mathematics.


If I were you, I would definitely stop gambling until you can do simple math and realize how things like probabilities and odds work.

I think what bb is trying to tell us all is....he doesnt believe in math...

Haha optimist vs. pessimist math. This is why I hate math. I do agree you have an good chance to have a 16 game streaky season. But statistics always lurk in the background and if youve had 10 good games you bet your ass a bad game is coming. NOT because you can quantify it in your heads, simply because it happens 20% of the time. Get over it. Quit complicating it.

Not another one. If you have 10 games hot behind yes you have a better chance to go hot all the way hot, but it's not because you have 10 games under your belt but you have only 6 left. Think about odds havin 6 straight with 78% comparet to 16. But you are right after ten games I go like: statistically it's more than likely to have a bad game now. That's not true. True is that it's likely to have a bad game in the rest of the 6 games. You should always be pessimistic when evaluating statistics and probabilities before the event occurs and like this situation the optimism should be growing as the season progress cause chances of going all the way go up every game won in a hot streak. Still the chances of the next game stay the same. That's the greatness of maths. You can dictate your own reaction whether it's happy or not by having the right attitude in to begin with..

And that 1.something percent chance could be a good chance in your opinion but if that's so I would go with russian roulette. There is a 1/6 chance to die & a 5/6 chance to get rich. And if you're a reaaaaally optimistic, with a bullet in your head you may survive, so you may have to tweak those odds a bit in your favour.

Guys like BiggerBlue don't get that there's no room for overly optimistic predictions in science. They do only HARM

ITT: BiggerBlue doesn't know the definition of the word "likely".

And there is no such thing as multiple types of math. There is math. And then there are people who use math completely wrong who claim that numbers can be used to say anything.

Lurk moar.
I think BiggerBlue is stating that he is not confined by your puny probability calculations. He is lucky and you are not. The 73.5% chance of 3 or more bad days are for suckaz like you.

Originally posted by Qillar
Lurk moar.
I think BiggerBlue is stating that he is not confined by your puny probability calculations. He is lucky and you are not. The 73.5% chance of 3 or more bad days are for suckaz like you.

and me

Originally posted by jakobnielsen
and me

Not me. Im never pessimistic over 78% unless ive won 4 times in a row. Math nerds gotta chill out. Make shit too hard.

ITT : The definition of stubborn.

Originally posted by Qillar
Lurk moar.
I think BiggerBlue is stating that he is not confined by your puny probability calculations. He is lucky and you are not. The 73.5% chance of 3 or more bad days are for suckaz like you.
+1

If there are two hotdog stands, one selling six inchers and the other foot-longs and there are 500 blondes at each stand, how many bad-days is each stand going to endure and which stand will have the biggest streak? Anyone know?