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Forum > Suggestions > Nerf the "fall down after INT" for defensive players - really this time
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cjericho
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I got those NFL stats from here http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=TOUCHDOWNS&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=TOUCHDOWNS_DEFENSE&tabSeq=2&season=2011&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&qualified=true
 
Ken1
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I don't claim that there were nearly enough returns for TD's in S27. I just am saying there used to be a hell of a lot too many in S26 and before.

As far as offense, the fairest test is yards per play (yards per interception return would be a fine stat if you can find it, too). The median NFL yards per pass attempt was 7.1 in 2011: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=PASSING_AVERAGE_YARDS&tabSeq=2&season=2011&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&qualified=true . Yards per pass attempt in GLB's WL...well, it became a yard too high. I don't know why when I checked around Week 12 it was exactly the same at 7.1; but it isn't now. http://goallineblitz.com/game/team_stats.pl?league_id=280&conference_id=0&stat=passing&sort=passing_yards/passes&playoffs=0

Correction: Passing doesn't need a nerf. The WL stats are now using the new WL teams, so unfortunately can no longer be used. The worst have been dropped out and stats that were acquired by the best teams at national pro have been added. So the ability to do comparisons has been, well, nerfed.

Edited by Ken1 on Apr 6, 2012 17:29:16
 
cjericho
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Originally posted by Ken1
That doesn't matter at all. The offense is the unit put together to score. The defense is the unit put together to stop them from scoring. Of course the offense should score much, much more than the defense.

The defense had been scoring at a much higher rate per interception than real football teams do, and that's what can't be repeated.

I count on this list http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/defense/sort/interceptionTouchdowns/qualified/false 49 interceptions returned for TD's in the NFL last season, out of http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&season=2011&seasonType=REG&role=OPP&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&conference=ALL&defensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&d-447263-s=PASSING_INTERCEPTIONS 506 interceptions.

This site, http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2011/opp.htm , confirms 506 interceptions is correct.

So, if I counted correctly, less than 10% of picks should be returned for TDs. That's unquestionably more than in S27, but unquestionably less than S26 and those before it. People correctly complained about that other extreme, too.



Well if for argument sake we say that all 274 int's in the WL were returned for TD's than that would be exactly 10% of the offensive output. If we say that at least half of the int's are taken back witch would be 137 that would be 4% of the offense output. I don't know the numbers from seasons 24 - 26 but I am sure there weren't that many int returns in those seasons thus making it less than 10% and meeting the NFL quota.
 
cjericho
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Correction: Passing doesn't need a nerf. The WL stats are now using the new WL teams, so unfortunately can no longer be used. The worst have been dropped out and stats that were acquired by the best teams at national pro have been added. So the ability to do comparisons has been, well, nerfed.

If that is the case than the numbers would be even bigger because the WL is going to take the better teams that scored more points, validating what I am saying.
Edited by cjericho on Apr 6, 2012 17:34:12
 
Ken1
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Originally posted by cjericho
Well if for argument sake we say that all 274 int's in the WL were returned for TD's than that would be exactly 10% of the offensive output. If we say that at least half of the int's are taken back witch would be 137 that would be 4% of the offense output. I don't know the numbers from seasons 24 - 26 but I am sure there weren't that many int returns in those seasons thus making it less than 10% and meeting the NFL quota.


You're wrong.

I don't know how to access previous seasons' stats, but they were well above the NFL's rate of Pick Sixes per interception, and if I could access previous seasons' stats I could show that. I recall it as being close to 3 times as many (here's where John accuses me of "making up stats" because I can't find it so I go to my best recollection while clearly marking it as such).

Comparing defensive TDs to offensive TDs is useless and means zero-- less than zero as stats are now messed up by team movement.
 
cjericho
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Originally posted by Ken1
You're wrong.

I don't know how to access previous seasons' stats, but they were well above the NFL's rate of Pick Sixes per interception, and if I could access previous seasons' stats I could show that. I recall it as being close to 3 times as many (here's where John accuses me of "making up stats" because I can't find it so I go to my best recollection while clearly marking it as such).

Comparing defensive TDs to offensive TDs is useless and means zero-- less than zero as stats are now messed up by team movement.


Accutually now I do get what you are saying you are talking about int's to amount returned for TD's. Still though the point that I and most others are trying to make is that this is NOT THE NFL, so most of us don't care what NFL stats are compared to GLB. What I did show with the stats though is that it really doesn't matter how many pick six's there, the offensive TD's will always be far greater than defensive TD's so let the defenders have some fun and get in on the scoring too because what better way to stop an offense than to intercept a pass and take it to the house.
Edited by cjericho on Apr 6, 2012 18:02:56
Edited by cjericho on Apr 6, 2012 18:00:16
 
Ken1
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Originally posted by cjericho
Accutually now I do get what you are saying you are talking about int's to amount returned for TD's. Still though the point that I and most others are trying to make is that this is NOT THE NFL, so most of us don't care what NFL stats are compared to GLB. What I did show with the stats though is that it really doesn't matter how many pick six's there, the offensive TD's will always be far greater than defensive TD's so let the defenders have some fun and get in on the scoring too because what better way to stop an offense than to intercept a pass and take it to the house.


And again I use the quote, not from me but from another longtime user who didn't even (AFAIK) leave for a while:

Originally posted by tpaterniti
The people pointing out that "it's not the NFL" are usually the ones who like to stat whore. The people appealing to the NFL are the one's who look for a realistic sim. They are most definitely not the same people.


And to show which type of game interests more people, the poll from years ago:

http://goallineblitz.com/game/poll.pl?poll_id=9

The people who want realism may not post much, and many of them may not approve of realistic outcomes "by any means necessary" and thus may not like the fall-downs much. Even when the poll was taken, most of the most outspoken people were arguing against realism-- so Bort set out to see what was really popular among the masses, and the poll rendered a clear verdict.

To me, there's no fun in a defensive (or offensive) player's accomplishments if they're handed to him by a cartoonish sim mechanic. The fun is in doing what (if you build well) a good player of his type would do in the NFL.

One other thing: If there are too many Pick Sixes it unbalances the whole game. While in S27 it was not risky enough to pass, too many Pick Sixes makes it too risky. So that kills passing teams. It's player vs. player, so anything you give to one takes away from another.
 
sicarius
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Honestly this isn't even an argument to increase the pick-6. The entire point is to let the defender perform as he's built and be able to move correctly after an INT. Fine, we don't want to have too many defensive return TDs. The point of this thread is that there aren't even any return YARDS, let alone TDs. Having the majority of the turnovers result in no return yards at all is just plain wrong.
 
Ken1
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Originally posted by sicarius
Honestly this isn't even an argument to increase the pick-6. The entire point is to let the defender perform as he's built and be able to move correctly after an INT. Fine, we don't want to have too many defensive return TDs. The point of this thread is that there aren't even any return YARDS, let alone TDs. Having the majority of the turnovers result in no return yards at all is just plain wrong.


I can't disagree with you there, although whatever is done has to be careful not to bring us back to too many return TDs. I agree there need to be more return yards and even more return TDs than S27 had-- just nowhere near what Seasons 26 (and 25,24...) had.

Thanks for being able to disagree politely, and actually even in this post to find a note of agreement.
 
oaklandraider
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKUJle52f44
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merenoise
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Originally posted by Janet Cooke
Originally posted by cjericho

Well if for argument sake we say that all 274 int's in the WL were returned for TD's than that would be exactly 10% of the offensive output. If we say that at least half of the int's are taken back witch would be 137 that would be 4% of the offense output. I don't know the numbers from seasons 24 - 26 but I am sure there weren't that many int returns in those seasons thus making it less than 10% and meeting the NFL quota.


You're wrong.

I don't know how to access previous seasons' stats, but they were well above the NFL's rate of Pick Sixes per interception, and if I could access previous seasons' stats I could show that. I recall it as being close to 3 times as many (here's where a normal person with common sense would not quote a stat for which they can't find corroboration).


inb4 he makes up more stats.

The bottom line is that he is never going to be truthful about the fact that offenses can score at will in GLB while defenses have been nerfed to the point that a fumble or interception return is so rare that they happen less than 1% of the time even in blowouts where the offense scores at will.

Everyone else who has posted in this thread gets that with the one very loud minority being Ken1. In 5 pages this suggestion has gotten a +1 from everyone but Ken1 which should be a good indication not only of the merits of the suggestion but also of how off base Ken1 is. It is fine to disagree with the clear majority, but when you fail to notice that you are the only one in the thread going "lalala I can't hear you" it is pretty sad.

The Hinckley thing was funny though, I've always thought Jodie Foster is pretty hot. Although if I was John I would have finished the job on the Gipper.
Edited by merenoise on Apr 6, 2012 22:02:59
 
dss02
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Originally posted by merenoise
Originally posted by Janet Cooke

Originally posted by cjericho


Well if for argument sake we say that all 274 int's in the WL were returned for TD's than that would be exactly 10% of the offensive output. If we say that at least half of the int's are taken back witch would be 137 that would be 4% of the offense output. I don't know the numbers from seasons 24 - 26 but I am sure there weren't that many int returns in those seasons thus making it less than 10% and meeting the NFL quota.


You're wrong.

I don't know how to access previous seasons' stats, but they were well above the NFL's rate of Pick Sixes per interception, and if I could access previous seasons' stats I could show that. I recall it as being close to 3 times as many (here's where a normal person with common sense would not quote a stat for which they can't find corroboration).


inb4 he makes up more stats.

The bottom line is that he is never going to be truthful about the fact that offenses can score at will in GLB while defenses have been nerfed to the point that a fumble or interception return is so rare that they happen less than 1% of the time even in blowouts where the offense scores at will.

Everyone else who has posted in this thread gets that with the one very loud minority being Ken1. In 5 pages this suggestion has gotten a +1 from everyone but Ken1 which should be a good indication not only of the merits of the suggestion but also of how off base Ken1 is. It is fine to disagree with the clear majority, but when you fail to notice that you are the only one in the thread going "lalala I can't hear you" it is pretty sad.

The Hinckley thing was funny though, I've always thought Jodie Foster is pretty hot. Although if I was John I would have finished the job on the Gipper.


Ken1 will never understand that the only workable pass defense atm is to blitz on every down.

Offenses can complete passes at will, and when the defense manages to magically create a turnover they play dead until an offensive player touches the dot down.

 
Ken1
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Originally posted by John Hinckley, Jr.
inb4 he makes up more stats.


You see, here's where you call something making up stats when I was completely honest about the fact that I couldn't prove it by getting to the right page. I'm pretty sure it is possible to access that page, but I don't know how. So I was 100% honest. I never claimed I could corroborate it or that it was exact. There's no dishonesty, which is what you like to stalk me and accuse me of, in there.

I can say with 100% certainty that GLB WL was a much higher percentage than real life, as otherwise I never would have complained about Pick Sixes.

Originally posted by John Hinckley, Jr.
The bottom line is that he is never going to be truthful about the fact that offenses can score at will in GLB


Corroboration, please? Oh, you're making up facts! All the pass deflections I saw by and against my team that was Semi-Pro last season never happened, I suppose.

Originally posted by John Hinckley, Jr.
while defenses have been nerfed to the point that a fumble or interception return is so rare that they happen less than 1% of the time even in blowouts where the offense scores at will.


Yep, defensive returns were nerfed by too much. I've said that often enough that I don't know why, if you were being honest, you wouldn't admit I recognized that, too. Our argument is whether they needed to be nerfed at all. I think they did, because I care about realistic outcomes, and you think they didn't because you don't care about realism at all. Simple enough.

Others have +1'd because they recognize it went too far, but I don't think that most of the +1s came from people who wanted to see it just pulled out. Many have suggested alternatives, because they recognize that the pre-S27 balance wasn't right, either. They just realize the fix went too far, and some don't like fall-downs because that's not why under 10% of interceptions are returned for TD's in real football.

Originally posted by John Hinckley, Jr.
The Hinckley thing was funny though


It fits you. You're a stalker, if a forum stalker. It's more representative of you as you comparing me to a woman who won a Pulitzer Prize for what turned out to be a fabricated story. I'm reasonably sure that Janet Cooke never wrote "I can't find proof of this, but to the best of my memory..." in that story.
 
NtropiK
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Originally posted by sicarius
Honestly this isn't even an argument to increase the pick-6. The entire point is to let the defender perform as he's built and be able to move correctly after an INT. Fine, we don't want to have too many defensive return TDs. The point of this thread is that there aren't even any return YARDS, let alone TDs. Having the majority of the turnovers result in no return yards at all is just plain wrong.


+1 to the person talking sense in this suggestion.
 
Diamond Spade
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cant have it both ways ken. u want realistic outcomes for the defense but the offense can have unrealistic outcomes.
 
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