Warrior General Games

Originally posted by spindoctor02
You fail to see that there will be enough dots to fill one-and-a-half leagues per season. Plateau lasts 5 seasons. Over the course of a teams time at the uncapped level, there will be 7.5 leagues worth of players. This is plenty to feed WL and the 4 pro leagues, and leave some left over for Casual Pro. This will probably also turn Regional Pro into the D240 league, like people have been arguing in favor of for a while now. Sure, there won't be as much depth, but there won't be a shortage of actual dots.

This

I also agree with lex that we will see a bounce in the number of rookie teams this offseason.

Originally posted by Novus
"Stand back! I'm going to try science!!!"

I ran the Player Value To League Page script on every Rookie league in GLB1 to get a total of all of the human Rookie dots that were created this season. Here's the totals per league:

Rookie League #1 - 1,355
Rookie League #2 - 1,299
Rookie League #3 - 1,036
Rookie Casual #1 - 1,377
Rookie Casual #2 - 1,129
Rookie D #1 - 118
Rookie D #2 - 132
Rookie D #3 - 149
Rookie D #4 - 106
Rookie D #5 - 129
Rookie D #6 - 113
Rookie D #7 - 102
Rookie D #8 - 109
Rookie D #9 - 104
Rookie D #10 - 120
Pee Wee Gold - 1,278
Pee Wee Silver #1 - 550
Pee Wee Silver #2 - 454
Pee Wee Silver #3 - 623
Pee Wee Silver #4 - 490

That's 10,773 Rookie dots. Sounds like a lot, right? But remember, a team with a full roster has 55 dots on it, so that's enough to fill just shy of 196 teams. 32 teams in a league, so that's 6 leagues' worth of Rookie dots.

Now, how many of today's Rookie dots are still going to be around 7 seasons from now, when today's Rookie dots are entering Plateau and are old enough to compete in Natty Pro and World League? Let's figure it out.

First of all, the vast majority of the Pee Wee dots are gonna be one and done, and for the stubborn agents who insist on trying to keep their Pee Wee dots alive, they'll soon find that the things you have to do to make a good Pee Wee dot usually make for a terrible older dot. So, let's just eliminate the Pee Wee dots altogether.

That leaves us with 7,378 Rookie dots.

By my best estimate, about two-thirds of all dots get retired before Plateau. Where am I getting that? Well, when my current USA Pro team (the Palm Bay Palookas) started in Rookie, there were 6 Rookie leagues full of teams. By the time my Palookas had reached Semi Pro, there were only 3 Semi Pro leagues, and one of them (Semi Pro League #3) was basically empty. So, from Rookie to Semi Pro, my team's age group went from having enough dots to fill 6 leagues to having enough dots to fill 2 leagues... which means about two-thirds of all dots in my age group got retired by Semi Pro. And that's still two tiers away from Plateau, so two-thirds may actually be overly kind... the early-retirement rate before Plateau may actually be higher.

But, let's go with an early-retirement rate of two-thirds. I don't want to be unduly alarmist.

So, if two-thirds of our 7,378 Rookie dots are going to retire before Plateau, that will leave us with one-third: 2,459 dots.

Still seems like a lot, right? Except that's only enough to fill 44 teams at 55 dots per team. And with 32 teams in a league, that means you'll have enough dots left to fill one-and-a-half leagues.

Stop and think about what that's going to do to World League and National Pro when their older dots hit Decline, retire, and need to be replaced, and there's only enough replacement dots to fill one-and-a-half leagues.

..........

The game's fine today. But today is not what I'm worried about. I'm worried about 370 days from now. And that's why my advice is: don't buy any more Flex unless you're also planning to play GLB2 and any future games Bort releases. If you only plan to play GLB1 and nothing else, buying Flex just isn't worth it anymore.

I don't necessarily disagree with the overall point you are making about decline, but the whole point of the plateau is that 4 or 5 seasons worth or rookie dots can pool at the top. So yes, there may only be rookie dots in any one given season to fill 1.5 leagues, at the very top, but what that really means is that there are that many rookie dots times 5 seasons of plateau if you assume that people create about the same number of rookie dots each year. That brings your number of leagues up to 7.5 Pro leagues, 1 WL, 4 Pro leagues, and 2.5 Regional Pro leagues. So the decline is there but not on the scale you are predicting because you failed to account for the fact that many seasons' worth of rookie dots pool at the highest level.

Originally posted by tpaterniti
I don't necessarily disagree with the overall point you are making about decline, but the whole point of the plateau is that 4 or 5 seasons worth or rookie dots can pool at the top. So yes, there may only be rookie dots in any one given season to fill 1.5 leagues, at the very top, but what that really means is that there are that many rookie dots times 5 seasons of plateau if you assume that people create about the same number of rookie dots each year. That brings your number of leagues up to 7.5 Pro leagues, 1 WL, 4 Pro leagues, and 2.5 Regional Pro leagues. So the decline is there but not on the scale you are predicting because you failed to account for the fact that many seasons' worth of rookie dots pool at the highest level.

I should try to figure out how many current dots in World League, Natty Pro and Casual Pro will retire this off-season. That'll give me a better idea of how many new dots need to come up to replace them. Won't be a perfect number, but an approximation would be close enough in this case.

I'll have to think about the best way to come up with that number, though.

Hey guys, there's a pretty big difference between having enough dots to fill rosters and having enough good dots to make those leagues competitive. Novus is correct, the future of GLB1 looks incredibly bleak, but it was fun while it lasted.

Originally posted by jdbolick
Hey guys, there's a pretty big difference between having enough dots to fill rosters and having enough good dots to make those leagues competitive. Novus is correct, the future of GLB1 looks incredibly bleak, but it was fun while it lasted.

Make more dawts bro

Originally posted by jdbolick
having enough dots to fill rosters and having enough good dots to make those leagues competitive.

you can make the argument that we are already there, and it gives peeps like Vlady a chance to win WL

Originally posted by Redass Ranch
you can make the argument that we are already there, and it gives peeps like Vlady a chance to win WL

This GLB Dying thing is sounding better and better all the time!

You guys are so optimistic it's fucking stupid!

Originally posted by jdbolick
Hey guys, there's a pretty big difference between having enough dots to fill rosters and having enough good dots to make those leagues competitive. Novus is correct, the future of GLB1 looks incredibly bleak, but it was fun while it lasted.

So it's only competitive when there are multitudes of great dots for the network teams to sift through and build their uber rosters? I don't recall any issue with competitiveness in the first 10-15 seasons of GLB when teams were using whatever dots they could get their hands on, just to fill out rosters. Things will be competitive, no matter the size of the available player pool, because all teams will have to adjust to that same pool of players.

Are the big networks responsible for the majority of the rookie dots at present? If so, then I could see where only a couple of network teams will run the show, due to their pipelines of dots. But if they've stopped making "farm teams" in accordance to the rest of the apparent GLB1 population, then those network teams (if still around) will still have to pick from the available talent.

WL will always be competitive, because the best dots will find there way there. The pro leagues might take a step back, but overall, that's not necessarily a bad thing, as right now the difference between top Nat. Pro teams and bottom Nat. Pro teams is quite large.

Originally posted by jdbolick
Hey guys, there's a pretty big difference between having enough dots to fill rosters and having enough good dots to make those leagues competitive. Novus is correct, the future of GLB1 looks incredibly bleak, but it was fun while it lasted.

You should join the jamzdub 'liance.

Oh, wait...jamzdub is no longer a thing.

Because people stopped joining because teams were being sold mid season right?

ummm...no

Originally posted by DigitalDaggers

GLB is still up and active because people enjoy the game and buy flex. This supports the game by paying for the servers and bandwidth.

While the game may be supporting itself by flex purchases, who at WG is supporting the game?
http://glb.warriorgeneral.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=5137343&page=6

Not to mention a bug report nearly a month old that still sits as "needs to be filed".