Warrior General Games

Originally posted by Galkuris
I would say all of these teams from the USA Pro have a very decent shot if entered:

MEM
HHW
MM



OFG
GB
Cinci
Washington



I'm going with a percent, 80% chance USA Pro wins it

Fixed

Originally posted by Galkuris
I would say all of these teams from the USA Pro have a very decent shot if entered:

MM
HHW
MEM
Lincoln
SF

***O***
GB
Cinci
Washington (if they are still a team)
DDL (if they fill their holes)


I'm going with a percent, 80% chance USA Pro wins it

If those 10 teams are in then I'm changing my odds, right now there is only 6 confirmed, so that's a big difference. Also, I just looked over the list of other teams more carefully and am swaying more in favor of USAP than my 4.25, so those odds might come down further when the field is set.

So CV, do you want to gamble that we don't make the top 4 of the playoffs this year?

Originally posted by The Strategy Expert
So CV, do you want to gamble that we don't make the top 4 of the playoffs this year?

Let me see your Day one roster first. I don't go in blind. This was based on what is happening today. I put Monmouth up because I KNOW who I'm Getting. Hell I just signed 2 players today.

Originally posted by coachviking
Originally posted by 32mewelde32

Originally posted by coachviking




UH NO No they don't. There version of solid players is a few 46's. Henne is a great guy, but NO WAY IN HELL they win this thing.

I might be slightly biased since i am going there next season =P and im a very optimistic person



Very Biased if you think they can win this tourney.

=D of course!

Originally posted by coachviking
Originally posted by The Strategy Expert

So CV, do you want to gamble that we don't make the top 4 of the playoffs this year?

Let me see your Day one roster first. I don't go in blind. This was based on what is happening today. I put Monmouth up because I KNOW who I'm Getting. Hell I just signed 2 players today.

Ok, but I'm sure you will chicken out. You can't possibly really think those 4 teams are all better than us. My money is that you are just showing a bias but won't back it up.

Originally posted by tomcollins
Originally posted by The Strategy Expert

That's why I set the boundary, IF everybody was equal those are the odds. USAP is better than the average for precisely that reason, that's why they can't be lower than 7:1 because those other leagues aren't as good and that is reflected by raising the USAP price up from the lowest boundary on a theoretically perfectly even field.

How many teams in USAPL are capable of winning this tournament (with a better than 1/200 chance)? I wouldn't figure its more than 6 of them from first glance (I don't know the teams that well, but that's my guess from the little I know). Now how many teams in the other leagues are capable? CPL has maybe 3 or 4, Africa has 1, WEPL has maybe 2 or 3, EEPL have any?, OPL has 1 or 2?, SAPL has 2-3?, SEAPL have any? I'll give the one's I'm not sure about 1 team each, so that is 6 teams out of about 20 or so. I figure maybe only 10 of those even have a chance above 1/50 or so, and maybe 4 of them are in USAPL, so it might be possible the numbers are even higher for USA Pro. It might work out to something like 1.5:1 or so. Even with variance, the crappiest teams will be eliminated early in the group system, and we will get a pretty strong field that should have at least 5 USA Pro teams. And the ones that make it through should have a considerably better chances than a lot of teams.

On a mostly unrelated note, I just want to say that the forum banter between tom and TSE is already hurting my brain. These two guys are peas in a pod in terms of their approach to the game, and I think I'm gonna need a stiff drink to read the discussions between them in the upcoming season.

Happily I'm also playing against both of them tomorrow.

I recommend smoking weed instead of drinking, it's better for you and Michael Phelps does it, so it's admirable.

Duly noted.

It's actually less harmful to smoke marijuana in moderation than it is to smoke cigarettes on a regular basis. This is an actual fact, although depending on what you consider moderation.

Originally posted by coachviking
Originally posted by Galkuris

I would say all of these teams from the USA Pro have a very decent shot if entered:

MEM
HHW
MM



OFG
GB
Cinci
Washington



I'm going with a percent, 80% chance USA Pro wins it

Fixed

I agree. Lincoln can't compete. We have large testicles though.

Originally posted by The Strategy Expert
It's actually less harmful to smoke marijuana in moderation than it is to smoke cigarettes on a regular basis. This is an actual fact, although depending on what you consider moderation.

In all seriousness though, I think I might have to start a separate thread for you and tom to make intellectual GLB love in. That way I can follow along in small doses and take a sip or a hit or a puff or whatever my coping mechanism will be. You oughta check out the Playoff Stock Trading game he's been running down in WPL forum. It's a head scratcher, but I think the redoubtable Strategy Expert should be able to decipher it. If he runs it next season you might enjoy it

Ok PM me a link to check it out, appreciate the invite. Look forward to some stimulating conversations with you in the future.

Originally posted by coachviking
Originally posted by The Strategy Expert

So CV, do you want to gamble that we don't make the top 4 of the playoffs this year?

Let me see your Day one roster first. I don't go in blind. This was based on what is happening today. I put Monmouth up because I KNOW who I'm Getting. Hell I just signed 2 players today.

Why do I have the feeling that you're getting all the guys I've been working on for the past week? lol

Originally posted by joemiken
Originally posted by coachviking

Originally posted by The Strategy Expert


So CV, do you want to gamble that we don't make the top 4 of the playoffs this year?

Let me see your Day one roster first. I don't go in blind. This was based on what is happening today. I put Monmouth up because I KNOW who I'm Getting. Hell I just signed 2 players today.

Why do I have the feeling that you're getting all the guys I've been working on for the past week? lol

If you think it's annoying recruiting against them as a successful USA Pro team, or even as a USA AAA team that is promoting, nothing compares to the fun I had recruiting against them and WSI last season as a successful AA team that was promoting. The few that do pm with interest almost always string you along for a few days before they say 'hey, sorry, thanks for the interest but I'm signing with the Monkeys." It's quite galling.