Warrior General Games

Originally posted by odt
with so few cross-over games strength of schedule won't make that much difference

It can, I would almost have to just split the conferences up and then mesh them together, but meh.

The SoS though I'm still thinking about how I'm going to implement it into my spreadsheet. I have the formula I am going to use, but just getting it implemented with right code and functions will be the fun part.

these power rankings basically tell you how much you've dominated your competition, so without cross-conference games, meshing them together really means nothing in terms of who is better.

anyway, here is another attempt at a power rankings for your perusal.
formula is:
1. first run which calculated every team's raw_rating as a weighted combination of W/L and score differential (this ratio can be tweaked, set at 1:3 right now, but the actual effect is about 1:2)
2. we run through each team's schedule. the effect of each game goes down by a configurable % as you go back in time. for this run it's at 5% meaning the most recent game has 100% weighting, the game before that has 95%, then 90%, etc. as we're on game 14 right now, game 1 only carries a 35% weight. basically this rewards teams that are hot/cold and is more dynamic since teams change in quality as the season progresses.
2a. for a win your final_rating goes up by (1 + a fraction) * your opponent's raw_rating. the fraction is based on the point differential that game.
2b. for a loss your final_rating goes down by the opposite calculation, and yes losing to a good team does subtract less than losing to a bad team.


the result for our league are quite ho hum.. it turned out basically like the standings.

WEST
Team name (W-L) (points for-points against) : rating
Rochester Vendetta (14-0) (435-122) : 124.477843
North By Gawd Texas Tornado Humpers (12-2) (403-82) : 120.056915
Las Vegas Heat (12-2) (315-144) : 115.903003
Missouri Partisan Rangers (10-4) (317-192) : 111.998043
New Brunswick Sentinels (10-4) (345-140) : 110.459262
New Orleans Voodoo (8-6) (238-212) : 106.797062
Double T Red Raiders (8-6) (312-181) : 104.586319
Round Rock 12th Man (8-6) (252-198) : 103.274643
Cincinnati Stallions (7-7) (222-253) : 99.236358
Olympia Dollar Ninety Nines (6-8) (157-253) : 96.538839
East Coast Catamounts (4-10) (191-285) : 91.131086
Houston Gamblers (5-9) (153-240) : 90.523051
Miranda Reavers (4-10) (183-392) : 88.412583
D.C. Sonics (3-11) (178-363) : 84.171304
Los Angeles Majors (0-14) (94-415) : 76.664760
Jaraguá Breakers (1-13) (106-429) : 74.788686

EAST
Team name (W-L) (points for-points against) : rating
Canton Hall Of Famers (12-2) (404-151) : 119.495209
Milwaukee Fire (11-3) (377-209) : 115.916411
Murder City Devils (11-3) (419-147) : 115.576214
Michigan Panthers (11-3) (479-179) : 114.199097
Columbus Buckeyes (11-3) (377-154) : 112.867878
Pontiac War Kittens (11-3) (281-156) : 109.678298
Seattle Reign (9-5) (355-209) : 104.979214
Lexington Mob (7-7) (322-339) : 100.612608
Maryland Iron Maidens (7-7) (261-200) : 100.252901
Detroit Soldiers (7-7) (259-241) : 97.255846
Carson City Cubes (5-9) (203-347) : 95.298326
Megatropolis Tigers (4-10) (236-289) : 90.671722
Washington Wildcats (4-10) (201-360) : 88.898547
Hartford Hurricanes (1-13) (90-349) : 80.172245
New York Huskies (1-13) (60-630) : 76.644013
New Jersey Vikings (0-14) (102-466) : 72.588437

-if your opinion is that there are team out of order in these rankings, feel free to state your reasons and if it's logical, we can tweak to formula.
-if you know of any "interesting" conference, point them out and i'll try this formula on them.

with the backoff% at 6%
we finally see something interesting in the east... 5-9 Cubes pass up 7-7 Detroit despite Detroit crushing the Cubes 22-0 earlier

however the Cubes had won 4 in a row (including 2 #1's) before losing today by 10 to a pretty good Pontiac team, while Detroit is on a 5 game skid though none of them to any truly bad teams....

so who should be higher in the power rankings in your mind?


EAST
Canton Hall Of Famers (12-2) (404-151) : 118.197297
Milwaukee Fire (11-3) (377-209) : 114.587191
Murder City Devils (11-3) (419-147) : 114.311359
Michigan Panthers (11-3) (479-179) : 112.601087
Columbus Buckeyes (11-3) (377-154) : 111.358429
Pontiac War Kittens (11-3) (281-156) : 108.145223
Seattle Reign (9-5) (355-209) : 104.099845
Lexington Mob (7-7) (322-339) : 101.124227
Maryland Iron Maidens (7-7) (261-200) : 100.269320
Carson City Cubes (5-9) (203-347) : 96.894474
Detroit Soldiers (7-7) (259-241) : 96.810114
Megatropolis Tigers (4-10) (236-289) : 91.514899
Washington Wildcats (4-10) (201-360) : 90.030266
Hartford Hurricanes (1-13) (90-349) : 81.718766
New York Huskies (1-13) (60-630) : 79.116218
New Jersey Vikings (0-14) (102-466) : 74.978328

It's a shame to see the Hurricanes in such a bad spot.

Originally posted by ReFFi
Originally posted by Lions2x

Originally posted by ReFFi


Originally posted by Lions2x



6 out of top 10 in EAST!!



This formula as explained before is heavily favoured on average margin of victory. 60% to be exact. Do the math.

Winning percentage is another %20, and the sum of your largest margin of victory and lowest lost. Now that I'm looking at this, I think I need to find the lowest victory number you have. I'm not sure, I'll poke around with it and see how much it shifts the rankings.

so your saying you rankings are worthless, why waste your time?


So douches like yourself can make an ass out of yourself! I pretty much enjoy people attacking the rankings. Its funny.


You make no sense, I didn't even bash/attack your rankings, I commented on them and YOU told me they suck.

Call me a douche or and ass? Which one is it?

douche

Needs a new icon IMO:

http://www.thefisks.org/wow/giantd.jpg

(in jest of course!)

Originally posted by ggezhb
with the backoff% at 6%
we finally see something interesting in the east... 5-9 Cubes pass up 7-7 Detroit despite Detroit crushing the Cubes 22-0 earlier

however the Cubes had won 4 in a row (including 2 #1's) before losing today by 10 to a pretty good Pontiac team, while Detroit is on a 5 game skid though none of them to any truly bad teams....

so who should be higher in the power rankings in your mind?


EAST
Canton Hall Of Famers (12-2) (404-151) : 118.197297
Milwaukee Fire (11-3) (377-209) : 114.587191
Murder City Devils (11-3) (419-147) : 114.311359
Michigan Panthers (11-3) (479-179) : 112.601087
Columbus Buckeyes (11-3) (377-154) : 111.358429
Pontiac War Kittens (11-3) (281-156) : 108.145223
Seattle Reign (9-5) (355-209) : 104.099845
Lexington Mob (7-7) (322-339) : 101.124227
Maryland Iron Maidens (7-7) (261-200) : 100.269320
Carson City Cubes (5-9) (203-347) : 96.894474
Detroit Soldiers (7-7) (259-241) : 96.810114
Megatropolis Tigers (4-10) (236-289) : 91.514899
Washington Wildcats (4-10) (201-360) : 90.030266
Hartford Hurricanes (1-13) (90-349) : 81.718766
New York Huskies (1-13) (60-630) : 79.116218
New Jersey Vikings (0-14) (102-466) : 74.978328

I'm not bashing the post but... How come Murder City is below Canton when they scored more points and held opponents to fewer points? Is it just the 1 extra win for now? If they are both 12-3 next week is Murder City on top?

having more wins will do that sort of things as wins tend to get more weight. Otherwise you'd end up with teams who win 70% of their games but only lose by a small margin leap frogging teams with more wins who occasionally lose by a pretty good margin & well you can imagine how that would go over.

Originally posted by Sanderval
having more wins will do that sort of things as wins tend to get more weight. Otherwise you'd end up with teams who win 70% of their games but only lose by a small margin leap frogging teams with more wins who occasionally lose by a pretty good margin & well you can imagine how that would go over.

That wouldn't be unfair. Isn't that how score weighted things go? Michigan beat Milwaukee by 30 but Canton only won by 3, but Canton beat Michigan by 21 and Milwaukee beat Columbus by 15 who beat Canton by 3, but Michigan beat Columbus by 2... Wait a second I'm lost...can we start over?

Originally posted by prettylew
but Michigan beat Columbus by 2...
lost to Columbus by 6

Originally posted by Sanderval
Originally posted by prettylew

but Michigan beat Columbus by 2...
lost to Columbus by 6



Haha, I only knew our results off the top of my head so I just guessed.

Originally posted by Lions2x
Originally posted by ReFFi

Originally posted by Lions2x


6 out of top 10 in EAST!!



This formula as explained before is heavily favoured on average margin of victory. 60% to be exact. Do the math.

Winning percentage is another %20, and the sum of your largest margin of victory and lowest lost. Now that I'm looking at this, I think I need to find the lowest victory number you have. I'm not sure, I'll poke around with it and see how much it shifts the rankings.

so your saying you rankings are worthless, why waste your time?


I took it offensively, I use the same formula in another league and things there look good, but I know they could be better.

I took your comment as an attitude and if it wasn't, let me be first to apologize.

In my other league however, you have the dominate teams and you have the weak teams, here, especially in the eastern conference, you have weak teams and even teams. So it throws my rankings out of whack and something I need to fix.

The comment why do them anyways is what threw me off, and I do them anyways because I enjoy putting the stats together and always am ever working on trying to perfect my spreadsheet I use so it's pretty much automated. For the most part, I just have to add the scores in and sort the ranking number and I get the rankings. It's nice that way, but I'd much rather add even more automation. We'll see!

Originally posted by Sanderval
Originally posted by prettylew

but Michigan beat Columbus by 2...
lost to Columbus by 6



ohh yeah! Michigan is the dominate team right now so the perception is that you will/have won every game. I feel sorry for the poor SOB that has to play you first in the playoffs!

I shall go back down to my basement position and only wonder how things are at the top.

bye bye now.