Warrior General Games

Originally posted by ChicagoTRS
Ken1...the facts:
2011 NFL 303 fumbles recovered by the defense. 31 were returned for TDs. 10% of fumble recoveries result in TDs for the defense.

If we are going for realism 10% should be the number we are shooting for. I even think most would be ok with less TDs...lets say 10% chance the defense makes a clean scoop on a fumble recovery (no fall down...couple ticks at most before returning)...this would still result in some short returns that are tackled by offense but should give us at least some real returns.

So far this season in GLB...in the 8 national pro leagues and WL (~864 games, 1000+ fumbles)...there have been 15 fumble TD returns...a majority of those fumble returns were in 255-0 games so in reality the current sim when playing even teams there is almost no chance for fumble returns.

Okay. I guess Mr. Noise, who accuses me of making up stats, must have made up his 4% of fumbles being returned for TDs then. Please show the link where you got that, but if it's accurate then you're right that 10% should be the target number, although from my experience watching football games that seems awfully high.

And I never denied at all that there are too few fumble returns right now.

Originally posted by Ken1
I estimated a single stat and it was in a context of "assuming 10% of fumbles are returned (which I'm still pretty sure is approximately true), and assuming 10% of those returned are returned for TDs" (which doesn't imply absolute knowledge). When you showed 4% of fumbles overall are returned for TDs I respected that, even though on the page you linked to I couldn't even find where you got that.

NFL stats:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/defense/position/defense
303 fumble recoveries = 31 TDs = 10% fumble recoveries result in a TD return

If 10% are returned for TDs a number higher than 10% are being returned as all fumbles that have some return are not going to equate to a TD. To be honest do not really care if it is 10% in GLB more interested in seeing it greater than the current .01%

Since basically no fumbles are returned right now it should be easy to do a scoop fumble solution that results in a controlled number of returns. No chance of FF returns getting out of control using this type of solution.

Originally posted by ChicagoTRS
NFL stats:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/defense/position/defense
303 fumble recoveries = 31 TDs = 10% fumble recoveries result in a TD return

If 10% are returned for TDs a number higher than 10% are being returned as all fumbles that have some return are not going to equate to a TD. To be honest do not really care if it is 10% in GLB more interested in seeing it greater than the current .01%

Since basically no fumbles are returned right now it should be easy to do a scoop fumble solution that results in a controlled number of returns. No chance of FF returns getting out of control using this type of solution.

Good enough for me. +1 to getting 10% of fumbles returned, or even 15% returned with maybe only one tick to secure the ball so that a lot of the returns can go for TDs.

Originally posted by Ken1
Originally posted by ChicagoTRS

Ken1...the facts:
2011 NFL 303 fumbles recovered by the defense. 31 were returned for TDs. 10% of fumble recoveries result in TDs for the defense.

If we are going for realism 10% should be the number we are shooting for. I even think most would be ok with less TDs...lets say 10% chance the defense makes a clean scoop on a fumble recovery (no fall down...couple ticks at most before returning)...this would still result in some short returns that are tackled by offense but should give us at least some real returns.

So far this season in GLB...in the 8 national pro leagues and WL (~864 games, 1000+ fumbles)...there have been 15 fumble TD returns...a majority of those fumble returns were in 255-0 games so in reality the current sim when playing even teams there is almost no chance for fumble returns.

Okay. I guess Mr. Noise, who accuses me of making up stats, must have made up his 4% of fumbles being returned for TDs then. Please show the link where you got that, but if it's accurate then you're right that 10% should be the target number, although from my experience watching football games that seems awfully high.

And I never denied at all that there are too few fumble returns right now.



http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2011/opp.htm

There were 650 fumbles last season in the NFL. Of those 303 were recovered by the defense and 31 were returned for TDs which are the exact numbers TRS is using. If you take the total amount of fumbles that were caused 4% were returned for TDs. If you take only the fumbles that were recovered by the defense it rises to 10%. It's all easily available on the website I posted. Either you are really terrible with math or you simply are making stuff up again.

You on the other hand just make up stats to suit your argument:

Originally posted by Ken1
10% of fumbles are returned for something not insignificant, and 10% of those go for TDs, and 100% of those are on YouTube (which they probably are) and if YouTube has great searching capability, it's not surprising that you could find those 1% of fumbles

1% of fumbles returned for TDs? As laughable as the lack of integrity it takes to make something like that up.

I think I'd rather see something like the change to interceptions, where if the fumbler and fumblee are on the ground and another player is on the scene, that player has a chance to pick up the fumble cleanly and advance. Trying to hardcode a percentage based on one NFL season seems like the wrong approach and wouldn't work as intended in practice.

Originally posted by merenoise
There were 650 fumbles last season in the NFL. Of those 303 were recovered by the defense and 31 were returned for TDs which are the exact numbers TRS is using. If you take the total amount of fumbles that were caused 4% were returned for TDs. If you take only the fumbles that were recovered by the defense it rises to 10%. It's all easily available on the website I posted.
Just fact checking: 31/650 is closer to 5%.

Originally posted by merenoise
1% of fumbles returned for TDs? As laughable as the lack of integrity it takes to make something like that up.

You left off the "If." It takes a lack of integrity to quote me out of context.

Here's a link to the post that shows there was an "if" there, which changes the entire context: http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=4867764&page=3#45033327

Leaving off the "if" to deprive it of context shows the lack of integrity you wanted to ascribe to me.

Originally posted by CDZYO

Just fact checking: 31/650 is closer to 5%.


What the numbers seem to show is that (surprisingly, to me) the offense recovers more than half of fumbles, but of the 46.6% that the defense recovers (that's what I get from the above numbers), about 10% are returned for TDs.

Nobody, including me, made up any stats. I was rebutting "proof" by his giving anecdotal evidence from YouTube by a series of "if" statements in the post he quoted out of context "If 10% of fumbles are returned for something not insignificant, and 10% of those go for TDs, and 100% of those are on YouTube (which they probably are) and if YouTube has great searching capability...." (emphasis added) http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=4867764&page=3#45033327

Mr. Noise then came up with 4% of all fumbles, which is close to accurate and actually a bit low, and Chicago came up with 10% of those recovered by the defense, which is correct.

So at least 10%, probably 15%, of fumbles recovered by the defense should be allowed to be returned to get something closer to reality.

Originally posted by CDZYO
I think I'd rather see something like the change to interceptions, where if the fumbler and fumblee are on the ground and another player is on the scene, that player has a chance to pick up the fumble cleanly and advance. Trying to hardcode a percentage based on one NFL season seems like the wrong approach and wouldn't work as intended in practice.

Disagree. I am not often a proponent of RNG fixes/features like this. But in this case, fumble recoveries in the real world are RNG...ball bounces the right way to the right player and they are off to the races. Real world has forced fumbles where the tackler just basically takes the ball from the offense and starts the return. The "build" of the player is not really important even in the real world. Probably more likely to be a secondary/LB type player return balls for a TD but that should still happen with this solution as d-linemen will be often caught from behind.

The proposal is a simple solution that should be easy to code into the existing sim. There is already a recover try in the sim where the player either falls and recovers or misses the recovery and the ball bounces...this would just add an x% scoop try at the beginning of each recovery try. Maybe only the first two recovery attempts get a scoop attempt.

Should be simple to adjust the sim to a specific chance of return/TD.
Makes the simulation closer to realism.
Not going to be exploitable because it is RNG (not build or strategy dependent)
If I know anything about coding this is minor effort and provides definite improvement to the sim with very little risk.

Originally posted by ChicagoTRS
Originally posted by CDZYO

I think I'd rather see something like the change to interceptions, where if the fumbler and fumblee are on the ground and another player is on the scene, that player has a chance to pick up the fumble cleanly and advance. Trying to hardcode a percentage based on one NFL season seems like the wrong approach and wouldn't work as intended in practice.

Disagree. I am not often a proponent of RNG fixes/features like this. But in this case, fumble recoveries in the real world are RNG...ball bounces the right way to the right player and they are off to the races. Real world has forced fumbles where the tackler just basically takes the ball from the offense and starts the return. The "build" of the player is not really important even in the real world. Probably more likely to be a secondary/LB type player return balls for a TD but that should still happen with this solution as d-linemen will be often caught from behind.

The proposal is a simple solution that should be easy to code into the existing sim. There is already a recover try in the sim where the player either falls and recovers or misses the recovery and the ball bounces...this would just add an x% scoop try at the beginning of each recovery try. Maybe only the first two recovery attempts get a scoop attempt.

Should be simple to adjust the sim to a specific chance of return/TD.
Makes the simulation closer to realism.
Not going to be exploitable because it is RNG (not build or strategy dependent)
If I know anything about coding this is minor effort and provides definite improvement to the sim with very little risk.

+1

+1

agreed...defensive score add a bit of randomness to the game...

@MileHigh...sounds nice...and I sort of agree. I purposely made my suggestion simple in hopes of the less work/risk the more likely it would be implemented.

Originally posted by ChicagoTRS
In real football sometimes fumbles are returned...and sometimes the defense does score. GLB is supposed to be a football simulation. The current lack of defensive scores in GLB is not an accurate simulation of real football.

Just felt like this part of the OP needed to be reinforced.

It would be kind of nice at least some fumbles were returned. Just looked through league stats and it seems like 1 in a 1000 chance for a fumble to be returned for more than a few yards. OP suggestion seems like a perfect way to inject fumble returns back into the game without risk of breaking things.