Warrior General Games

Seems pretty accurate, but I think there are a couple teams that I'm thinking may lose/win 1-2 more games then projected pretty easily looking over the remaining schedule.

Originally posted by suckstobesara
Seems pretty accurate, but I think there are a couple teams that I'm thinking may lose/win 1-2 more games then projected pretty easily looking over the remaining schedule.

So like any stat based ranking/prediction tool, the more data you have in it, the better it will be.

Speaking of having more data, we do...since all the games simmed for thisafternoon, I've updated the spreadsheet, and have the new predictions....


Rk__Team_________________W___L___T____%_____PF____PA__
..1 . . Fremont Warriors . . . . . . . . . 16 . . ..0 . . 0 . . 100% . . 811 . . .....71
..2 . . Island Shaka Brah's. . . . . . . . . . 15 . . ..1 . . 0 . . ..94% . . 645 . . .....79
..3 . . Rhode Island Revolut. . . . . . . 13 . . ..3 . . 0 . . ..81% . . 433 . . ...161
..4 . . Hobbs Gerbil Wrangle. . . . . . . . . 12 . . ..4 . . 0 . . ..75% . . 500 . . ...189
..5 . . West Coast Llamas. . . . . . . . . . . 12 . . ..4 . . 0 . . ..75% . . 525 . . ...185
..6 . . Team MaddenWars.com . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 . . ..5 . . 0 . . ..69% . . 455 . . ...173
..7 . . Tulsa Teamsters. . . . . . . . . . . . 11 . . ..5 . . 0 . . ..69% . . 365 . . ...172
..8 . . Titan Nation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..9 . . ..7 . . 0 . . ..56% . . 279 . . ...197
..9 . . Fort Lauderdale Merk . . . . . . . . . . ..8 . . ..8 . . 0 . . ..50% . . 358 . . ...257
10 . . SOUTH GEORGIA GROWL . . . . . . ..6 . . 10 . . 0 . . ..38% . . 247 . . ...309
11 . . Walla Walla Wackers . . . . . . . . . ..5 . . 11 . . 0 . . ..31% . . 257 . . ...357
12 . . Washington Blitz . . . . . . ..4 . . 12 . . 0 . . ..25% . . 241 . . ...434
13 . . Alabama Panthers . . . . . . . ..2 . . 14 . . 0 . . ..13% . . 201 . . ...643
14 . . SMASH MOUTH Silverba . ..2 . . 14 . . 0 . . ..13% . . 171 . . ...685
15 . . Las Vegas Villains . . . . . ..2 . . 14 . . 0 . . ..13% . . ..96 . . ...477
16 . . LaCrosse RiverRats . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..0 . . 16 . . 0 . . ....0% . . ....0 . . 1,166



Rk__Team_________________W___L___T____%_____PF____PA__
..1 . . Philadelphia Pythons. . . . . . . . . . . . 16 . . ..0 . . 0 . . 100% . . 470 . . ..69
..2 . . Cincinnati Norris Ni. . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . ..2 . . 0 . . ..88% . . 315 . . 121
..3 . . Washington Capitals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . ..2 . . 0 . . ..88% . . 605 . . 232
..4 . . Mid Michigan Storm. . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 . . ..4 . . 0 . . ..75% . . 370 . . 160
..5 . . Beer Town Brawlers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 . . ..4 . . 0 . . ..75% . . 440 . . 167
..6 . . Boston DrunkN'Disord . . . . . . . . . . 11 . . ..5 . . 0 . . ..69% . . 335 . . 197
..7 . . Chicago Sirius . . . . . . . . . . . 10 . . ..6 . . 0 . . ..63% . . 425 . . 196
..8 . . Bowling Green Bronco. . ..8 . . ..8 . . 0 . . ..50% . . 316 . . 251
..9 . . Appalachian Mountain. . . . . . . . ..7 . . ..9 . . 0 . . ..44% . . 227 . . 315
10 . . Michigan Blues. . . . . . . . . . . . . ..6 . . 10 . . 0 . . ..38% . . 208 . . 505
11 . . Shoreside Navy Seals. . . . . . . . . . . ..6 . . 10 . . 0 . . ..38% . . 245 . . 292
12 . . Rutgers Queensmen an. . . . . . . ..5 . . 11 . . 0 . . ..31% . . 215 . . 402
13 . . Starkville Firedogs . . . . . . ..4 . . 12 . . 0 . . ..25% . . 148 . . 449
14 . . Houston Raiders . . . . . . . . . . . . ..2 . . 14 . . 0 . . ..13% . . 131 . . 374
15 . . Seattle Rainmakers. . . . . . . . . ..1 . . 15 . . 0 . . ....6% . . ..83 . . 452
16 . . Tampa Bandits . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..0 . . 16 . . 0 . . ....0% . . ..72 . . 464



Again, all the credit for this goes to Satchmo.

Thanks,
StickMan

edit...noticed the points for the second half of the league were screwy...fixed em.

dam how did chicago go from 3rd to 7th an we even won agasint a evenlly matched team thats wierd

Well, we (Boston), moved up a spot in this after our win today. I'll take it

Originally posted by deathmage
dam how did chicago go from 3rd to 7th an we even won agasint a evenlly matched team thats wierd

I think it's because it's based on points scored and points scored against....Chicago is predicted to have some pretty close games in the future, and the points (scored and allowed) from the teams you play vs the points you put up/allowed let some of the really close ones slide the other way.

For example, you were predicted to beat beer town until after today (by about 1 point), and now beer town in predicted to win by less than a point...

Thanks,
StickMan

Essentially it appears it's used to predict the spread based on points got/given and who you got them against then generate w-l record based on comparisons.


However I'm guessing it doesn't change if you're projected to win/lose say 7 games by few points. So for example you could have a tough schedule ahead and you're projected to lose all 7 games by 2points, however what will probably end up happening is you'll win 1-2 of those or vice versa. It's pretty accurate, but my guess is it treats 7 1 point projected differences win/loss the same as 7 15point chance win/loss.

So it should give you a fairly accurate idea of the spread between opposing teams, however your end record however can be quite different. Also to a certain degree while your "real" record is hard your "projected" record isn't so failing to beat the spread or a team you play later beating to spread can shift your rank down.

I do think it is fairly accurate for most teams, it will likely be inaccurate for teams that face several teams of equal quality in the second half of the season.

guess that all makes pretty good sense.well chicago is just going to have to keep wooping some more ass taking teams down.need to steal some more of that gatoraid.

Ok so we lost today, I can settle for 9-7 then XD.

Originally posted by suckstobesara

I do think it is fairly accurate for most teams, it will likely be inaccurate for teams that face several teams of equal quality in the second half of the season.

Yeah, Fremont is predicted to beat the riverrats by 217-0.....And in Satchmo's original thread, someone posted that they had a game predicted to be 5 hundred something to 0....lol

So those serve to illustrate that it's not 100% accurate.

Thanks,
StickMan

I'd be surprised to see us go 16-0, I think at least one team out there has our number.

Originally posted by Stickman
For example, you were predicted to beat beer town until after today (by about 1 point), and now beer town in predicted to win by less than a point...

Thanks,
StickMan

If we win by less than a point, that would be something!

How do we go from 5-1 and finish 7-9?

I think this needs a bit of tweaking...

Originally posted by Dash21583
I'd be surprised to see us go 16-0, I think at least one team out there has our number.

AHEM

Originally posted by sndhillshntr
How do we go from 5-1 and finish 7-9?

I think this needs a bit of tweaking...

06/27/2008 at Boston DrunkN'Disorderly Matchup
06/29/2008 Bowling Green Broncos Matchup
07/01/2008 at Cincinnati Norris Ninjas Matchup
07/03/2008 Philadelphia Pythons Matchup
07/05/2008 at Washington Capitals Matchup

good luck with that 5 game stretch.

Originally posted by Prince Darius
Originally posted by sndhillshntr

How do we go from 5-1 and finish 7-9?

I think this needs a bit of tweaking...

06/27/2008 at Boston DrunkN'Disorderly Matchup
06/29/2008 Bowling Green Broncos Matchup
07/01/2008 at Cincinnati Norris Ninjas Matchup
07/03/2008 Philadelphia Pythons Matchup
07/05/2008 at Washington Capitals Matchup

good luck with that 5 game stretch.

Holy crap, darius actually has a point this time. Seriously, you guys got it rough next few weeks.