I like Streaky for D-Linemen, but then again I like Streaky in general more than most people seem to.
tautology
offline
offline
Originally posted by whatje
Originally posted by BiggerBlue
80+% of the times of good streak doesn't mean a bad streak HAS to happen the other 20% of the time, please re-learn about statistics. Each time is independent of the other, and yes I can tell when my player is boosted or not, it's not that hard to figure it out.
If something is likely to happen 80% of the time each day, it is very possible and highly likely that all 16 games you're on a Good streak.
okay....but statistically you would expect that you would be good streaky on 12 or 13 and bad streaky on 3 or 4.
so what he said, statistically, was actually more right.
also, statistically, the likelihood of you getting 16 games all streaky is about 2.8%
Exactly correct. 2.8% =/= "highly likely" in my world view...
Originally posted by BiggerBlue
80+% of the times of good streak doesn't mean a bad streak HAS to happen the other 20% of the time, please re-learn about statistics. Each time is independent of the other, and yes I can tell when my player is boosted or not, it's not that hard to figure it out.
If something is likely to happen 80% of the time each day, it is very possible and highly likely that all 16 games you're on a Good streak.
okay....but statistically you would expect that you would be good streaky on 12 or 13 and bad streaky on 3 or 4.
so what he said, statistically, was actually more right.
also, statistically, the likelihood of you getting 16 games all streaky is about 2.8%
Exactly correct. 2.8% =/= "highly likely" in my world view...
monsterkill
offline
offline
Originally posted by BiggerBlue
Same for you, learn about statistics before agreeing to non-sense.
just stop
Same for you, learn about statistics before agreeing to non-sense.
just stop
TheGreatPuma
offline
offline
Originally posted by BiggerBlue
80+% of the times of good streak doesn't mean a bad streak HAS to happen the other 20% of the time, please re-learn about statistics. Each time is independent of the other, and yes I can tell when my player is boosted or not, it's not that hard to figure it out.
If something is likely to happen 80% of the time each day, it is very possible and highly likely that all 16 games you're on a Good streak.
LOL @ "highly likely"
Don't lecture me about statistics unless you know what the fuck you're talking about.
80+% of the times of good streak doesn't mean a bad streak HAS to happen the other 20% of the time, please re-learn about statistics. Each time is independent of the other, and yes I can tell when my player is boosted or not, it's not that hard to figure it out.
If something is likely to happen 80% of the time each day, it is very possible and highly likely that all 16 games you're on a Good streak.
LOL @ "highly likely"
Don't lecture me about statistics unless you know what the fuck you're talking about.
BiggerBlue
offline
offline
Originally posted by TheGreatPuma
LOL @ "highly likely"
Don't lecture me about statistics unless you know what the fuck you're talking about.
It's obvious I need to talk in kindergarten language, so I will.
With Streaky at 15, 80% chance for Good game (+5%).
Game 1: what's your chance for Good vs. Bad? 80%. You have 80% for Good game.
Game 2: same question? Same answer: 80%.
Game 3: same...
Game 4: hopefully you get it by now.
I don't know about you but if I am told that I have 80% to get something good and only 20% for something bad each and every game I jump on it.
And yes, with all my DEs with Streaky at 15 I have never had a DE with more than 2 bad games in a season, and yes, I can tell a difference.
When people say you have 10 million to 1 chance to win the lottery, it doesn't mean if you buy the lottery 10 million times that you will definitely win 1. Every time you buy the lottery your chance is the same: 10 million to one.
Same with Streaky: every game you play your chance of Good game is the same: 80% vs. 20%
LOL @ "highly likely"
Don't lecture me about statistics unless you know what the fuck you're talking about.
It's obvious I need to talk in kindergarten language, so I will.
With Streaky at 15, 80% chance for Good game (+5%).
Game 1: what's your chance for Good vs. Bad? 80%. You have 80% for Good game.
Game 2: same question? Same answer: 80%.
Game 3: same...
Game 4: hopefully you get it by now.
I don't know about you but if I am told that I have 80% to get something good and only 20% for something bad each and every game I jump on it.
And yes, with all my DEs with Streaky at 15 I have never had a DE with more than 2 bad games in a season, and yes, I can tell a difference.
When people say you have 10 million to 1 chance to win the lottery, it doesn't mean if you buy the lottery 10 million times that you will definitely win 1. Every time you buy the lottery your chance is the same: 10 million to one.
Same with Streaky: every game you play your chance of Good game is the same: 80% vs. 20%
BiggerBlue
offline
offline
Originally posted by tautology
Exactly correct. 2.8% =/= "highly likely" in my world view...o_O
Again you guys are confusing statistical math with reality occurrence. It's ok guys, many people make the same confusion.
When you flip a coin, your chance for head and tail is 50% each, what you flipped last time has absolutely zero impact on your second flip. It is still 50/50. Statistics measures the standard deviation of the likelihood of the actual odds of it happening in any particular pattern you want, but reality occurrence may be totally different from case to case. This is why you go gambling and sometimes you see a fuckface sitting next to you keep winning the jackpot draws, and you get stuck with shit hands. Statistically both of you have the same chance of winning the jackpot, but in reality that fucker wins more than you. When you play the roulette what was spinned before has absolutely zero influence on what comes up in the next spin.
In this case: 15 Streaky = 80% good game. So every game your players has 80% chance of a good game. Just because my player has 10 straight Good games for example, it does NOT mean he's "due 3-4 bad games because that's what statistics tells us. One season he's due 3-4 bad games." No, each game he plays he faces the same chance: 80% good, 20% bad.
Now, I am not guaranteeing you will never have a bad game, but like I said, I've topped off Streaky for a few seasons on a few players now, and the most in a season that any particular player has are 2 bad games.
Exactly correct. 2.8% =/= "highly likely" in my world view...o_O
Again you guys are confusing statistical math with reality occurrence. It's ok guys, many people make the same confusion.
When you flip a coin, your chance for head and tail is 50% each, what you flipped last time has absolutely zero impact on your second flip. It is still 50/50. Statistics measures the standard deviation of the likelihood of the actual odds of it happening in any particular pattern you want, but reality occurrence may be totally different from case to case. This is why you go gambling and sometimes you see a fuckface sitting next to you keep winning the jackpot draws, and you get stuck with shit hands. Statistically both of you have the same chance of winning the jackpot, but in reality that fucker wins more than you. When you play the roulette what was spinned before has absolutely zero influence on what comes up in the next spin.
In this case: 15 Streaky = 80% good game. So every game your players has 80% chance of a good game. Just because my player has 10 straight Good games for example, it does NOT mean he's "due 3-4 bad games because that's what statistics tells us. One season he's due 3-4 bad games." No, each game he plays he faces the same chance: 80% good, 20% bad.
Now, I am not guaranteeing you will never have a bad game, but like I said, I've topped off Streaky for a few seasons on a few players now, and the most in a season that any particular player has are 2 bad games.
Tasco
offline
offline
Originally posted by BiggerBlue
Again you guys are confusing statistical math with reality occurrence. It's ok guys, many people make the same confusion.
When you flip a coin, your chance for head and tail is 50% each, what you flipped last time has absolutely zero impact on your second flip. It is still 50/50. Statistics measures the standard deviation of the likelihood of the actual odds of it happening in any particular pattern you want, but reality occurrence may be totally different from case to case. This is why you go gambling and sometimes you see a fuckface sitting next to you keep winning the jackpot draws, and you get stuck with shit hands. Statistically both of you have the same chance of winning the jackpot, but in reality that fucker wins more than you. When you play the roulette what was spinned before has absolutely zero influence on what comes up in the next spin.
In this case: 15 Streaky = 80% good game. So every game your players has 80% chance of a good game. Just because my player has 10 straight Good games for example, it does NOT mean he's "due 3-4 bad games because that's what statistics tells us. One season he's due 3-4 bad games." No, each game he plays he faces the same chance: 80% good, 20% bad.
Now, I am not guaranteeing you will never have a bad game, but like I said, I've topped off Streaky for a few seasons on a few players now, and the most in a season that any particular player has are 2 bad games.
then you're simply lucky, because over the long term statistically are going to have 20% bad games. You might have 4 seasons with only 1 bad game, but then you'll have some others with 5 or 6 bad games.
But maybe I'm mistaken, statistics is not my strength!
Again you guys are confusing statistical math with reality occurrence. It's ok guys, many people make the same confusion.
When you flip a coin, your chance for head and tail is 50% each, what you flipped last time has absolutely zero impact on your second flip. It is still 50/50. Statistics measures the standard deviation of the likelihood of the actual odds of it happening in any particular pattern you want, but reality occurrence may be totally different from case to case. This is why you go gambling and sometimes you see a fuckface sitting next to you keep winning the jackpot draws, and you get stuck with shit hands. Statistically both of you have the same chance of winning the jackpot, but in reality that fucker wins more than you. When you play the roulette what was spinned before has absolutely zero influence on what comes up in the next spin.
In this case: 15 Streaky = 80% good game. So every game your players has 80% chance of a good game. Just because my player has 10 straight Good games for example, it does NOT mean he's "due 3-4 bad games because that's what statistics tells us. One season he's due 3-4 bad games." No, each game he plays he faces the same chance: 80% good, 20% bad.
Now, I am not guaranteeing you will never have a bad game, but like I said, I've topped off Streaky for a few seasons on a few players now, and the most in a season that any particular player has are 2 bad games.
then you're simply lucky, because over the long term statistically are going to have 20% bad games. You might have 4 seasons with only 1 bad game, but then you'll have some others with 5 or 6 bad games.
But maybe I'm mistaken, statistics is not my strength!
Rage Kinard
offline
offline
Originally posted by BiggerBlue
In this case: 15 Streaky = 80% good game.
not that it matters that much but 15 streaky = 78% chance of a good game.
1 pt is 50/50.
14 x 2 = 28
50+28 = 78
In this case: 15 Streaky = 80% good game.
not that it matters that much but 15 streaky = 78% chance of a good game.
1 pt is 50/50.
14 x 2 = 28
50+28 = 78
TheGreatPuma
offline
offline
Originally posted by BiggerBlue
It's obvious I need to talk in kindergarten language, so I will.
With Streaky at 15, 80% chance for Good game (+5%).
Game 1: what's your chance for Good vs. Bad? 80%. You have 80% for Good game.
Game 2: same question? Same answer: 80%.
Game 3: same...
Game 4: hopefully you get it by now.
I don't know about you but if I am told that I have 80% to get something good and only 20% for something bad each and every game I jump on it.
And yes, with all my DEs with Streaky at 15 I have never had a DE with more than 2 bad games in a season, and yes, I can tell a difference.
When people say you have 10 million to 1 chance to win the lottery, it doesn't mean if you buy the lottery 10 million times that you will definitely win 1. Every time you buy the lottery your chance is the same: 10 million to one.
Same with Streaky: every game you play your chance of Good game is the same: 80% vs. 20%
Please, please just stop.
Just because any given game is an 80% good day chance (actually 78% but it's quite clear math's not your strong suit even though you keep claiming it is), does not mean that you have an 80% chance to have 16/16 good streaky days.
You claimed that because your chance in a given game was 80% that meant that it was "highly likely" you would rarely have a streaky day. This is patently absurd because, as you state above, each day you have a 22% chance at a bad streaky day. 78% is in no way "highly likely" - of course that term is relative.
Your coin flipping example is broken as well because you don't completely grasp what you're talking about. Any given coin flip is 50%. You are correct. That's not to say the odds of getting 10 heads on 10 coin flips is 50%, is it? Supposing you had a 5 sided die, 1-4 are good streaky days and 5 is a bad streaky day. if I had you roll the die 16 times would you expect it's "highly likely" you would never roll a 5? What are the odds of not rolling a 5 in 16 throws? Oh wait this was answered above. Since I don't want to waste anymore time here I went and looked up a dice rolling example that illustrates what myself and others have been trying to tell you:
http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm
It clearly lays out the odds of NOT rolling a specific number based on the number of dice thrown, and how it's calculated so you can educate yourself. I don't believe it will change your mind, but honestly I don't care enough to worry about it.
It's obvious I need to talk in kindergarten language, so I will.
With Streaky at 15, 80% chance for Good game (+5%).
Game 1: what's your chance for Good vs. Bad? 80%. You have 80% for Good game.
Game 2: same question? Same answer: 80%.
Game 3: same...
Game 4: hopefully you get it by now.
I don't know about you but if I am told that I have 80% to get something good and only 20% for something bad each and every game I jump on it.
And yes, with all my DEs with Streaky at 15 I have never had a DE with more than 2 bad games in a season, and yes, I can tell a difference.
When people say you have 10 million to 1 chance to win the lottery, it doesn't mean if you buy the lottery 10 million times that you will definitely win 1. Every time you buy the lottery your chance is the same: 10 million to one.
Same with Streaky: every game you play your chance of Good game is the same: 80% vs. 20%
Please, please just stop.
Just because any given game is an 80% good day chance (actually 78% but it's quite clear math's not your strong suit even though you keep claiming it is), does not mean that you have an 80% chance to have 16/16 good streaky days.
You claimed that because your chance in a given game was 80% that meant that it was "highly likely" you would rarely have a streaky day. This is patently absurd because, as you state above, each day you have a 22% chance at a bad streaky day. 78% is in no way "highly likely" - of course that term is relative.
Your coin flipping example is broken as well because you don't completely grasp what you're talking about. Any given coin flip is 50%. You are correct. That's not to say the odds of getting 10 heads on 10 coin flips is 50%, is it? Supposing you had a 5 sided die, 1-4 are good streaky days and 5 is a bad streaky day. if I had you roll the die 16 times would you expect it's "highly likely" you would never roll a 5? What are the odds of not rolling a 5 in 16 throws? Oh wait this was answered above. Since I don't want to waste anymore time here I went and looked up a dice rolling example that illustrates what myself and others have been trying to tell you:
http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm
It clearly lays out the odds of NOT rolling a specific number based on the number of dice thrown, and how it's calculated so you can educate yourself. I don't believe it will change your mind, but honestly I don't care enough to worry about it.
BiggerBlue
offline
offline
Originally posted by Rage Kinard
not that it matters that much but 15 streaky = 78% chance of a good game.
1 pt is 50/50.
14 x 2 = 28
50+28 = 78
Ok, I stand corrected, 78%
not that it matters that much but 15 streaky = 78% chance of a good game.
1 pt is 50/50.
14 x 2 = 28
50+28 = 78
Ok, I stand corrected, 78%
flipmo
offline
offline
Yup. There's a 97.2% chance of having a bad game at least once a season. These things came up in junior high math courses. I would like to see some of you make the effort of calculating the odds of throwing at least 5 scores of 8 or more with 13 D10 dice(dice with 10 sides). I have done it half way and had a burnout.. But coming back to the topic, the reward vs. the risk is so great you should indeed proceed with 15 points of Streaky with all your D-linemen.
BiggerBlue
offline
offline
Originally posted by TheGreatPuma
Please, please just stop.
It clearly lays out the odds of NOT rolling a specific number based on the number of dice thrown, and how it's calculated so you can educate yourself. I don't believe it will change your mind, but honestly I don't care enough to worry about it.
I seriously hope you don't care about it because I'm tired of trying to teach simple math to a... well.... let's just hope you're not out of public school system yet because clearly the nation has failed you if you did.
You still don't get it, I'm not the idiot that claims 10 coin flips = 5 heads and 5 tails, you are when you claimed, in an absolute statement, that a Streaky of 15 will earn you "3-4 bad games a season", when I say no, it depends, at the end of the day, on each players' own chances.
This isn't hard to understand, but of course you won't admit it because heaven forbid you admit you're wrong in public when all evidences show it.
Again, it's not hard, any person with any math knowledge will tell you.
You have a player with 15 Streaky, what is the chance of him playing game one to have a good game? 78%
Game two comes around: what is the chance he gets a good game now? Please please tell me you're not stupid enough to say .78 x .78 = 61%, no, the answer is still, 78%.
Game three rolls around, what is the chance you will have a good game then? 78%.
Each game's outcome is independent of past experiences.
Everyone knows the casino roulette history number displays are for suckers who think they can guess what will come up next based on prior returns. Anybody with any knowledge of math knows each spin in roulette is absolutely independent of last spin.
Once again you failed to understand my coin flip example. Just because you flipped head on the first flip that don't mean on your second flip the chance is 25% head (.5 x .5) and 75% tail. No, the second flip chances are the same: 50% head and 50% tail.
I do not understand why this is so hard for you to comprehend.
Please, please just stop.
It clearly lays out the odds of NOT rolling a specific number based on the number of dice thrown, and how it's calculated so you can educate yourself. I don't believe it will change your mind, but honestly I don't care enough to worry about it.
I seriously hope you don't care about it because I'm tired of trying to teach simple math to a... well.... let's just hope you're not out of public school system yet because clearly the nation has failed you if you did.
You still don't get it, I'm not the idiot that claims 10 coin flips = 5 heads and 5 tails, you are when you claimed, in an absolute statement, that a Streaky of 15 will earn you "3-4 bad games a season", when I say no, it depends, at the end of the day, on each players' own chances.
This isn't hard to understand, but of course you won't admit it because heaven forbid you admit you're wrong in public when all evidences show it.
Again, it's not hard, any person with any math knowledge will tell you.
You have a player with 15 Streaky, what is the chance of him playing game one to have a good game? 78%
Game two comes around: what is the chance he gets a good game now? Please please tell me you're not stupid enough to say .78 x .78 = 61%, no, the answer is still, 78%.
Game three rolls around, what is the chance you will have a good game then? 78%.
Each game's outcome is independent of past experiences.
Everyone knows the casino roulette history number displays are for suckers who think they can guess what will come up next based on prior returns. Anybody with any knowledge of math knows each spin in roulette is absolutely independent of last spin.
Once again you failed to understand my coin flip example. Just because you flipped head on the first flip that don't mean on your second flip the chance is 25% head (.5 x .5) and 75% tail. No, the second flip chances are the same: 50% head and 50% tail.
I do not understand why this is so hard for you to comprehend.
BiggerBlue
offline
offline
Originally posted by flipmo
Yup. There's a 97.2% chance of having a bad game at least once a season. These things came up in junior high math courses.
You found the issue I believe, Puma isn't there yet (Junior high math courses)
Yup. There's a 97.2% chance of having a bad game at least once a season. These things came up in junior high math courses.
You found the issue I believe, Puma isn't there yet (Junior high math courses)
Hagalaz
offline
offline
Originally posted by BiggerBlue
You found the issue I believe, Puma isn't there yet (Junior high math courses)
Dude, he's saying you're wrong. What you quoted is stating you're wrong.
We're not calculating the chance by assuming the outcome of the 2nd game is depending on the first one. We are looking at the season as a whole and calculating the chances of getting a 16 +4 good game streak with 78% odds. It's not high. In fact it's very low.
You need to have a good game on the first game AND the 2nd AND the third AND the fourth. it's 18% for 16-game streak and 7% for a 20 game streak according to my calculations.
And again, this is _NOT_ assuming game outcomes are dependent on the previous game outcomes.
You found the issue I believe, Puma isn't there yet (Junior high math courses)
Dude, he's saying you're wrong. What you quoted is stating you're wrong.
We're not calculating the chance by assuming the outcome of the 2nd game is depending on the first one. We are looking at the season as a whole and calculating the chances of getting a 16 +4 good game streak with 78% odds. It's not high. In fact it's very low.
You need to have a good game on the first game AND the 2nd AND the third AND the fourth. it's 18% for 16-game streak and 7% for a 20 game streak according to my calculations.
And again, this is _NOT_ assuming game outcomes are dependent on the previous game outcomes.
You are not logged in. Please log in if you want to post a reply.
