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Forum > North American Pro League > USA Conference > Odds On the USA Pro winning GLB Pro World Tournament?
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That's why I set the boundary, IF everybody was equal those are the odds. USAP is better than the average for precisely that reason, that's why they can't be lower than 7:1 because those other leagues aren't as good and that is reflected by raising the USAP price up from the lowest boundary on a theoretically perfectly even field.
Last edited Feb 9, 2009 15:34:03
 
tomcollins
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Originally posted by The Strategy Expert
That's why I set the boundary, IF everybody was equal those are the odds. USAP is better than the average for precisely that reason, that's why they can't be lower than 7:1 because those other leagues aren't as good and that is reflected by raising the USAP price up from the lowest boundary on a theoretically perfectly even field.


How many teams in USAPL are capable of winning this tournament (with a better than 1/200 chance)? I wouldn't figure its more than 6 of them from first glance (I don't know the teams that well, but that's my guess from the little I know). Now how many teams in the other leagues are capable? CPL has maybe 3 or 4, Africa has 1, WEPL has maybe 2 or 3, EEPL have any?, OPL has 1 or 2?, SAPL has 2-3?, SEAPL have any? I'll give the one's I'm not sure about 1 team each, so that is 6 teams out of about 20 or so. I figure maybe only 10 of those even have a chance above 1/50 or so, and maybe 4 of them are in USAPL, so it might be possible the numbers are even higher for USA Pro. It might work out to something like 1.5:1 or so. Even with variance, the crappiest teams will be eliminated early in the group system, and we will get a pretty strong field that should have at least 5 USA Pro teams. And the ones that make it through should have a considerably better chances than a lot of teams.
 
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Ok, after those points I have decided to change my odds to 4.25 : 1.
 
23yrwej
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Originally posted by Galkuris
The only problem is that team called West Scranton. I could see the final 8 being 6 USA, WS, and one other...with WS winning it.


West Scranton can be beaten Galk. I broke down their entire offense and defense last season in a long and very detailed scouting report, they had some flaws that could be taken advantage of. That might change but I did see somethings you can attack.
 
coachviking
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Originally posted by tomcollins
Originally posted by The Strategy Expert

That's why I set the boundary, IF everybody was equal those are the odds. USAP is better than the average for precisely that reason, that's why they can't be lower than 7:1 because those other leagues aren't as good and that is reflected by raising the USAP price up from the lowest boundary on a theoretically perfectly even field.


How many teams in USAPL are capable of winning this tournament (with a better than 1/200 chance)? I wouldn't figure its more than 6 of them from first glance (I don't know the teams that well, but that's my guess from the little I know). Now how many teams in the other leagues are capable? CPL has maybe 3 or 4, Africa has 1, WEPL has maybe 2 or 3, EEPL have any?, OPL has 1 or 2?, SAPL has 2-3?, SEAPL have any? I'll give the one's I'm not sure about 1 team each, so that is 6 teams out of about 20 or so. I figure maybe only 10 of those even have a chance above 1/50 or so, and maybe 4 of them are in USAPL, so it might be possible the numbers are even higher for USA Pro. It might work out to something like 1.5:1 or so. Even with variance, the crappiest teams will be eliminated early in the group system, and we will get a pretty strong field that should have at least 5 USA Pro teams. And the ones that make it through should have a considerably better chances than a lot of teams.



To be totally honest. USA PRO has 6 teams maybe 7 with a real shot of winning this, CPL has 5, OPL has 3, SA pro has 2. No one from either European league has a shot in hell, SEA LOL, and Africa PUHLEASE.
 
32mewelde32
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Originally posted by coachviking



To be totally honest. USA PRO has 6 teams maybe 7 with a real shot of winning this, CPL has 5, OPL has 3, SA pro has 2. No one from either European league has a shot in hell, SEA LOL, and Africa PUHLEASE.


I think Ufa Panthers EE Pro has a decent chance they are picking up some pretty solid players for next season =)

 
coachviking
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Originally posted by 32mewelde32
Originally posted by coachviking




To be totally honest. USA PRO has 6 teams maybe 7 with a real shot of winning this, CPL has 5, OPL has 3, SA pro has 2. No one from either European league has a shot in hell, SEA LOL, and Africa PUHLEASE.


I think Ufa Panthers EE Pro has a decent chance they are picking up some pretty solid players for next season =)



UH NO No they don't. There version of solid players is a few 46's. Henne is a great guy, but NO WAY IN HELL they win this thing.
 
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Originally posted by coachviking


To be totally honest. USA PRO has 6 teams maybe 7 with a real shot of winning this, CPL has 5, OPL has 3, SA pro has 2. No one from either European league has a shot in hell, SEA LOL, and Africa PUHLEASE.


Who are the 6 or 7 then? Right now there's only 6 USAP even entered, but I think they could add like 3 more before the field is set.
Last edited Feb 9, 2009 16:52:33
 
captainsexy
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Originally posted by joemiken
Originally posted by Galkuris

The only problem is that team called West Scranton. I could see the final 8 being 6 USA, WS, and one other...with WS winning it.


We'll sick K-zoo on them! We're getting closer to figuring out/catching up to them.


Damn Straight
 
hud
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Originally posted by coachviking
Originally posted by tomcollins

Originally posted by The Strategy Expert


That's why I set the boundary, IF everybody was equal those are the odds. USAP is better than the average for precisely that reason, that's why they can't be lower than 7:1 because those other leagues aren't as good and that is reflected by raising the USAP price up from the lowest boundary on a theoretically perfectly even field.


How many teams in USAPL are capable of winning this tournament (with a better than 1/200 chance)? I wouldn't figure its more than 6 of them from first glance (I don't know the teams that well, but that's my guess from the little I know). Now how many teams in the other leagues are capable? CPL has maybe 3 or 4, Africa has 1, WEPL has maybe 2 or 3, EEPL have any?, OPL has 1 or 2?, SAPL has 2-3?, SEAPL have any? I'll give the one's I'm not sure about 1 team each, so that is 6 teams out of about 20 or so. I figure maybe only 10 of those even have a chance above 1/50 or so, and maybe 4 of them are in USAPL, so it might be possible the numbers are even higher for USA Pro. It might work out to something like 1.5:1 or so. Even with variance, the crappiest teams will be eliminated early in the group system, and we will get a pretty strong field that should have at least 5 USA Pro teams. And the ones that make it through should have a considerably better chances than a lot of teams.



To be totally honest. USA PRO has 6 teams maybe 7 with a real shot of winning this, CPL has 5, OPL has 3, SA pro has 2. No one from either European league has a shot in hell, SEA LOL, and Africa PUHLEASE.


1:2. That aint bad.
 
32mewelde32
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Originally posted by coachviking


UH NO No they don't. There version of solid players is a few 46's. Henne is a great guy, but NO WAY IN HELL they win this thing.


I might be slightly biased since i am going there next season =P and im a very optimistic person

 
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Originally posted by jrry32
Originally posted by Galkuris

The only problem is that team called West Scranton. I could see the final 8 being 6 USA, WS, and one other...with WS winning it.


West Scranton can be beaten Galk. I broke down their entire offense and defense last season in a long and very detailed scouting report, they had some flaws that could be taken advantage of. That might change but I did see somethings you can attack.


lol, i like how you invested so much time into scouting us

i'm under the impression that there are a couple of teams at the top that are more or less even, and it's pretty much based on luck whoever comes out a winner in those games (like WSI and MEM this season).

it's also pretty obvious to me that the best leagues in GLB are USAPL and CPL. OPL was on the rise after last season, but i think we took a step back this season. hopefully we can do better next season. i don't really know much about the other leagues though.
 
Galkuris
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I would say all of these teams from the USA Pro have a very decent shot if entered:

MM
HHW
MEM
Lincoln
SF

***O***
GB
Cinci
Washington (if they are still a team)
DDL (if they fill their holes)


I'm going with a percent, 80% chance USA Pro wins it
 
Doomsday
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That sounds about right to me. I'm going to say 70% though.
 
coachviking
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Originally posted by 32mewelde32
Originally posted by coachviking



UH NO No they don't. There version of solid players is a few 46's. Henne is a great guy, but NO WAY IN HELL they win this thing.


I might be slightly biased since i am going there next season =P and im a very optimistic person



Very Biased if you think they can win this tourney.
 
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