aestis in many respects yours is a very thoughtful post with some nice points. However, one thing I disagree with is how well the sim follows real football, and many of your comments are based mostly on what in your opinion happens in some real world leagues. Until the sim begins to approach the results of these real world leagues more often, your comparison is not valid.
Also, it's much more rare for a team that loses to outyard its opponent than it is common. Whether you are talking about high school, college, semi-pro, Canadian Pro, or US Pro leagues, the team that wins usually gets the most yards, and here in the sim the correlation often approaches 90%+. For instance, we're 9-0 and we've outyarded our opponents by a large margin every game. If any of our opponents had outyarded us, I would consider that quite an achievement, even if they didn't win on the scoreboard. The only exception would be if we scored a high number of special teams or defensive TD's - in that case, it would make more sense to include return yardage in the evaluation, since our offense never got a chance to step on the field for that drive.
Turnovers are not something we can always control. In that game in particular, we had 5 turnovers and they had none. 3 of our turnovers were fumbles, all of which occurred in easy field goal range (9 points lost) and one of the fumbles was returned 90 yards for a defensive TD (7 more points lost). The players who fumbled do not normally fumble and didn't fumble at all in the other 2 games against A6 teams we have played. The two running backs that fumbled both have fumbled very infrequently in their career, because they have builds that limit fumbles.
The 16 points from these fumbles were more than the margin of victory. Meanwhile we did not get a single turnover, which is also rare and not consistent with what we normally achieve against other teams.
Sometimes within the band of what we can reasonably control, it is possible for a team to outplay another team, yet still lose because of things that happen outside the band of what we can reasonably control. This game was an example.
Last edited Nov 29, 2008 16:38:24