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Forum > Suggestions > Make Turnover % Chance Dependent Solely on Builds & Not Previous Turnovers
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jdbolick
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Originally posted by Chysil
so if someone had 40 strength and 40 carrying and runs full speed into someone with 100 str and 68 tackling and 15 power tackler hits you you should fumble on a normal basis...

The base fumble chance should be higher, sure. I actually think that the base chance of turnovers should be increased from what they are now. My problem isn't the existence of turnovers, it's how experiencing a turnover can produce these turnover cascades because of the way that the game is coded.
 
Jed
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Gotcha, so you have no intent to actually post evidence, you're just going to claim that numbers you feel should be true, should be true, with no proof other than "it happens all the time!"

When you have some actual proof of what's going on, feel free to post it again, and in the correct forum this time: bugs. If Confidence is really doing as little as you say, then that's a bug and should be posted there WITH ACTUAL EVIDENCE.


ca-click.
 
AirMcMVP
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Unlocked at request of OP.
 
WiSeIVIaN
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Originally posted by AirMcMVP
Unlocked at request of OP.


Lol bolick is the worst and he gameplans like shit, no need to unlock...

Overall int% stuff is too high but they aren't gonna tweak GLB anymore. "issue" in the OP is completely seperate and is just jdblock being insane and trying to blame the sim. His assertion that confidence does nothing for QB's is lolwrong.
 
Chysil
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I bet JD is bumping this cause of the 12 int game in WL that he was on the bad side of...

However, the "death spiral" turnovers can be pretty crazy..

I think that a small, temporary penalty to pass quality / not fumble chance would be ok if it was capped at a %... the length of the penalty could be based off of confidence. But consecutive turnovers should not compound this issue, but just reset the length of the penalty.

It's pretty funny how my HB for example will go 10+ games without a fumble, and then have 3 in one game.


That... or they could leave it as is, but have a way to adjust the gameplan for it. I mean, what sucks is after your player is in a turnover death spiral, you can't adjust your game plan, or adjust energy settings to allow another person take the ball instead.... The fact that you can't adjust for it in game plan is what is truly annoying.
Edited by Chysil on Jul 16, 2015 13:51:14
 
Theo Wizzago
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I agree and this has been talked about before... and I still think some simple math adjustments could fix this issue without re-writing everything. My take has always been that it is FAR easier to get morale to go DOWN... than it is to get it back UP. This imbalance causes these 'morale spirals' that get people so pissed all the time (myself included). It kinda sucks to watch a game where you KNOW that the first turnover determines the fate of the entire game simply because the morale spiral coming is gonna ruin all further plays made. If morale could be GAINED as easy as it is LOST though quality plays made, then the game could ebb and flow like it should. What good is having your WR make an amazing one-handed catch when a simple 'off-sides' causes more damage than the amazing play can repair? The way morale is handled is out of balance and that shows everytime there's a moral spiral such as what JD's team experienced... and so many more of us as well.
 
toobad4u_00
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I avidly heart this thread.... and necro bumps in the night.
 
jdbolick
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Originally posted by WiSeIVIaN
Lol bolick is the worst and he gameplans like shit, no need to unlock...

Overall int% stuff is too high but they aren't gonna tweak GLB anymore. "issue" in the OP is completely seperate and is just jdblock being insane and trying to blame the sim. His assertion that confidence does nothing for QB's is lolwrong.

Originally posted by Catch22
Confidence impact on bad passes:
Originally posted by Catch22
Need someone to run the following test:

Run 5 test games, all passing, with the following team:

http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/team.pl?team_id=62

Only use this QB:

http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/player.pl?player_id=42815

Report the following:

# of passes attempted
# of bad throws
# of times hurried
# of times bad throw was caused by hurry

Once done with these 5 games, let me know and I will change the QB confidence to 75. Repeat the 5 game test and reports as above.

Once done with those 5 games, let me know and I will change the QB confidence to 50. Repeat 5 game test again.


With 100 Confidence:
Game #1 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6034 (109, 11, 13, 6)
Game #2 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6035 (85, 2, 4, 2)
Game #3 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6036 (105, 7 ,20, 4)
Game #4 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6037 (108, 14, 26, 12)
Game #5 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6039 (105, 13, 18, 5)

# of passes attempted - 512
# of bad throws - 47 (9.18%)
# of times hurried - 81 (15.82%)
# of times bad throw was caused by hurry - 29 (5.66%)


With 75 Confidence:
Game #1 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6053 (109, 8, 18, 5)
Game #2 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6060 (113, 18, 22, 16)
Game #3 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6061 (109, 11, 21, 9)
Game #4 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6062 (105, 5, 15, 3)
Game #5 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6066 (108, 17, 22, 11)

# of passes attempted - 544
# of bad throws - 59 (10.85%)
# of times hurried - 98 (18.01%)
# of times bad throw was caused by hurry - 45 (8.27%)

With 50 Confidence:
Game #1 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6087 (110, 9 , 17, 6)
Game #2 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6088 (87, 22, 34, 20)
Game #3 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6089 (112, 9 , 22, 7)
Game #4 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6090 (70, 7, 23, 6)
Game #5 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6091 (98, 6, 17, 6)

# of passes attempted - 477
# of bad throws - 53 (11.11%)
# of times hurried - 113 (23.69%)
# of times bad throw was caused by hurry - 45 (9.43%)

Conclusion - I ran these games with the same offensive AI and same base defensive AI. As you can see I do not feel there is much of a noticeable difference from 100 confidence to 50 confidence.
 
jdbolick
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Originally posted by Chysil
I bet JD is bumping this cause of the 12 int game in WL that he was on the bad side of...

My team actually had the best passing touchdown to interception ratio of anyone at that level, yet even we had enough of a distribution to prove the cascade effect. Without that negative feedback loop you would expect 5+ interception games to be incredibly rare, but instead what we see is that the mass-turnover results are far, far more common than would realistically happen if it didn't exist. I had hoped to post data for the entire league by now, but in any case, here's the distribution for my own team including scrims:

INTs - 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12

INT% - 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 3.13%, 3.45%, 4.00%, 4.08%, 5.00%, 5.13%, 5.26%, 6.45%, 6.52%, 6.67%, 7.14%, 7.14%, 7.69%, 8.70%, 9.52%, 9.52%, 10.53%, 12.00%, 14.71%, 14.89%, 16.67%, 22.50%, 30.00%
 
Dr. E
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Originally posted by jdbolick
Originally posted by WiSeIVIaN

Lol bolick is the worst and he gameplans like shit, no need to unlock...

Overall int% stuff is too high but they aren't gonna tweak GLB anymore. "issue" in the OP is completely seperate and is just jdblock being insane and trying to blame the sim. His assertion that confidence does nothing for QB's is lolwrong.

Originally posted by Catch22

Confidence impact on bad passes:
Originally posted by Catch22

Need someone to run the following test:

Run 5 test games, all passing, with the following team:

http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/team.pl?team_id=62

Only use this QB:

http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/player.pl?player_id=42815

Report the following:

# of passes attempted
# of bad throws
# of times hurried
# of times bad throw was caused by hurry

Once done with these 5 games, let me know and I will change the QB confidence to 75. Repeat the 5 game test and reports as above.

Once done with those 5 games, let me know and I will change the QB confidence to 50. Repeat 5 game test again.


With 100 Confidence:
Game #1 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6034 (109, 11, 13, 6)
Game #2 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6035 (85, 2, 4, 2)
Game #3 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6036 (105, 7 ,20, 4)
Game #4 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6037 (108, 14, 26, 12)
Game #5 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6039 (105, 13, 18, 5)

# of passes attempted - 512
# of bad throws - 47 (9.18%)
# of times hurried - 81 (15.82%)
# of times bad throw was caused by hurry - 29 (5.66%)


With 75 Confidence:
Game #1 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6053 (109, 8, 18, 5)
Game #2 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6060 (113, 18, 22, 16)
Game #3 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6061 (109, 11, 21, 9)
Game #4 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6062 (105, 5, 15, 3)
Game #5 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6066 (108, 17, 22, 11)

# of passes attempted - 544
# of bad throws - 59 (10.85%)
# of times hurried - 98 (18.01%)
# of times bad throw was caused by hurry - 45 (8.27%)

With 50 Confidence:
Game #1 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6087 (110, 9 , 17, 6)
Game #2 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6088 (87, 22, 34, 20)
Game #3 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6089 (112, 9 , 22, 7)
Game #4 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6090 (70, 7, 23, 6)
Game #5 - http://test.goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=6091 (98, 6, 17, 6)

# of passes attempted - 477
# of bad throws - 53 (11.11%)
# of times hurried - 113 (23.69%)
# of times bad throw was caused by hurry - 45 (9.43%)

Conclusion - I ran these games with the same offensive AI and same base defensive AI. As you can see I do not feel there is much of a noticeable difference from 100 confidence to 50 confidence.


There is one aspect confidence impacts and it's very obvious. How long the QB hangs on to the ball, said in a football term, how long he waits in the pocket for his receivers to get open. A high confidence will stick it out for a while, whereas a low one will rattle through check downs at warp speed. So, it might be everyone expects confidence to do something it isn't meant to do.
 
jdbolick
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Originally posted by Dr. E
There is one aspect confidence impacts and it's very obvious. How long the QB hangs on to the ball, said in a football term, how long he waits in the pocket for his receivers to get open. A high confidence will stick it out for a while, whereas a low one will rattle through check downs at warp speed. So, it might be everyone expects confidence to do something it isn't meant to do.

Except that confidence doesn't do that either. Vision affects the speed of progressions, not confidence.
 
The Avenger
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Originally posted by jdbolick

Except that confidence doesn't do that either. Vision affects the speed of progressions, not confidence.


Those numbers tell a different story though to the sim, higher confidence is less hurried. Makes sense, does Manning have more confidence then Cutler, yes? Would Manning feel hurried as much as Cutler with exact same Oline, prob not, its all about the confidence.

Those stats are pretty good there, thanks for digging it up.
 
Dr. E
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Originally posted by jdbolick

Except that confidence doesn't do that either. Vision affects the speed of progressions, not confidence.


Watch a low Confidence QB when he gets pressure. His check downs will hurry, a lot.
 
jdbolick
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Originally posted by Dr. E
Watch a low Confidence QB when he gets pressure. His check downs will hurry, a lot.

All quarterbacks make a quick throw when they're hurried. This is yet another case of not understanding the sim.
 
DiMo28
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Originally posted by Chysil
I bet JD is bumping this cause of the 12 int game in WL that he was on the bad side of...

However, the "death spiral" turnovers can be pretty crazy..

I think that a small, temporary penalty to pass quality / not fumble chance would be ok if it was capped at a %... the length of the penalty could be based off of confidence. But consecutive turnovers should not compound this issue, but just reset the length of the penalty.

It's pretty funny how my HB for example will go 10+ games without a fumble, and then have 3 in one game.


That... or they could leave it as is, but have a way to adjust the gameplan for it. I mean, what sucks is after your player is in a turnover death spiral, you can't adjust your game plan, or adjust energy settings to allow another person take the ball instead.... The fact that you can't adjust for it in game plan is what is truly annoying.


I agree with this. There is a FB on one of my teams that rarely fumbles and then had a game where he fumbled 4 times. I was screaming to stop handing him the ball... literally, LOL. (well, I'm laughing now anyway.)
 
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