ALPHA:Congratulations to Valhalla on earning a home game yesterday. They can now finish no lower than third and will get to play the WooJacks tomorrow in a game that can decide the top seed in Alpha. Woodridge has also clinched a top 2 finish and at least 2 home games. Two home games remain and, while they will likely go to Berlin, FTA, or Toledo, all teams in the top 8 are still within reach. This is going to sound kind of strange, but Berlin clinched a playoff spot yesterday with their loss to Wembley. This, however, has more to do with Carthage's loss to London, which dropped them out of a tie with Wembley and Lake Charles.
Losses by FTA and Toledo prevented them from sealing a berth. They are now in a three-way tie with AWC, which keeps open a possible scenario in which anyone of them could be caught by the outsiders (Stutgartt, London, Carthage, and E-city). No teams own tie-breakers over all of the outsiders, but AWC is in the trickier position as they still have two competitve games remaining. Toledo has one easy game left against Nice and FTA's remaining schedule is against winless teams, so both are likely to clinch tomorrow.
Wembley and Lake Charles are in control of their own destiny right now. Lake Charles has a win over all teams that are tied at 7 wins right now except for Carthage. The Who Dats and AOD meet tomorrow. A win by Lake Charles will lock up a spot by virtue of tie-breakers. Wembley has a tall order. They have a poor record against the outsiders and do not have a lead in points scored, so they cannot afford to be in a tie. Complicating the matter is that they finish against AWC and Paris. Both winable, but challenging.
Stutgartt, London, E-city and Carthage are tied, and pretty firmly in that order. All teams will need help from Wembley and Lake Charles, but they are still alive. Carthage is probably all but done for. The other three have a 2-1 record vs each other, while Carthage is 0-3. The point differentials between the others are around 50 points and each team has one easy and one difficult game. This one is unpredictable right now.
Lyon can still avoid relegation. They need to win against both E-city and Oslo and for Nice to lose to both Toledo and Rotterdam. I think that they can probably count on Nice to help them, winning their own games is probably a different story though. The Assassins, however, have now clinched a demotion. Should they win against both FTA and Bari, they can still finish no higher than 15th. Good luck in AAA next season to the Assassins.
ZETA: Frankfurt has likely clinched a home game. The only scenario in which they can finish lower than fourth is one that has them losing out and Mulitple and Stockholm winning out in a manner that eclipses the HEAT's 100 point differential. The Troll's situation has not changed, as they can still technically finish as low as third. The Pimps, however, have now clinched their first, of likely many, WEPL playoff spot. Stockholm has also clinched a spot by virtue of tie-breakers over Rotterdam and Korb.
The Scorgasms, Reykjavik, and Paris can all clinch their spots tomorrow with wins and all teams are heavy favorites. Rotterdam, however, will not clinch until the last game. They will be heavy favorites in their remaining games, but cannot afford an upset with Korb tight on thier heels. Should they end in a tie, the Roughnecks have the tie breaker, but a slip-up against Oslo and a surprise upset of Korb over Toledo would crush Rotterdam's chances.
Bari and Rohrheim have been eliminated with their losses yesterday. Their best case scenarios have them winning out with Rotterdam and Korb dropping their last two. Even if this happens, Korb and Rotterdam are 2-1 against these four teams while Bari and Rohrheim are 1-2. They will finish in 10th and 11th, regardless of a tie.
Oslo and Oxford are now safe from relegation. Dfools could still avoid demotion, but that will require wins against both Paris and Woodridge, so no one is holding their breath. Relegation, however, is now unavoidable for SGPO. Good luck to the Officers in AAA next season.
