Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League (OPL) post wk 13 games...
FFLW Caninites Zeta 177.44
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 170.85
Brisbane Heat Zeta 169.53
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 121.63
New England Burning Pride Alpha 121.26
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 119.34
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 119.28
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 95.56
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 92.28
East Coast Tide Alpha 89.58
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 89.14
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 83.57
Brisbane Gods Zeta 76.96
IC Incinerators Zeta 65.88
Canberra Strike Alpha 64.64
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 59.49
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 59.46
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -3.49
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -5.11
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -7.45
Big Island Growas Zeta -17.65
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -25.00
Perth Scorpions Alpha -60.61
Saipan Fighters Zeta -64.65
Auckland Flames Alpha -83.72
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -185.61
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -190.42
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -194.81
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -196.57
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -209.65
Australian Marauders Zeta -246.34
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -284.79
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Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 14 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 13 predictions: 14-2-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 163-43-2
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.847
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.819
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.799
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.759
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.752
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.729
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.675
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.609
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.587
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.581
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.579
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.579
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.575
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.536
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.525
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.516
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.484
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.475
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.464
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.425
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.421
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.421
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.419
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.413
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.391
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.325
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.271
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.248
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.241
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.201
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.181
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.153
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating diference)]:
Gold: **Tonga Ikale Tahi (12-1-0) at Fiji Sea Turtles (10-3-0) [game rating: 191.11]
Silver: Brisbane Gods (8-5-0) at **Tongan Crimson Auha (9-4-0) [game rating: 153.92]
Bronze: IC Incinerators (9-4-0) at **FFLivewire Cans (10-3-0) [game rating: 131.75]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 13 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
FFLW Caninites Zeta 177.44
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 170.85
Brisbane Heat Zeta 169.53
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 121.63
New England Burning Pride Alpha 121.26
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 119.34
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 119.28
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 95.56
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 92.28
East Coast Tide Alpha 89.58
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 89.14
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 83.57
Brisbane Gods Zeta 76.96
IC Incinerators Zeta 65.88
Canberra Strike Alpha 64.64
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 59.49
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 59.46
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -3.49
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -5.11
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -7.45
Big Island Growas Zeta -17.65
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -25.00
Perth Scorpions Alpha -60.61
Saipan Fighters Zeta -64.65
Auckland Flames Alpha -83.72
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -185.61
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -190.42
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -194.81
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -196.57
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -209.65
Australian Marauders Zeta -246.34
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -284.79
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 14 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 13 predictions: 14-2-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 163-43-2
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.847
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.819
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.799
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.759
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.752
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.729
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.675
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.609
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.587
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.581
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.579
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.579
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.575
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.536
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.525
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.516
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.484
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.475
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.464
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.425
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.421
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.421
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.419
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.413
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.391
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.325
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.271
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.248
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.241
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.201
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.181
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.153
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating diference)]:
Gold: **Tonga Ikale Tahi (12-1-0) at Fiji Sea Turtles (10-3-0) [game rating: 191.11]
Silver: Brisbane Gods (8-5-0) at **Tongan Crimson Auha (9-4-0) [game rating: 153.92]
Bronze: IC Incinerators (9-4-0) at **FFLivewire Cans (10-3-0) [game rating: 131.75]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 13 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
