Warrior General Games

Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League (OPL) post wk 10 games...

FFLW Caninites Zeta 139.52
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 138.11
Brisbane Heat Zeta 137.49
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 136.06
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 134.75
New England Burning Pride Alpha 115.04
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 110.34
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 87.48
Canberra Strike Alpha 84.95
East Coast Tide Alpha 83.23
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 72.97
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 46.30
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 45.59
Brisbane Gods Zeta 37.70
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 33.47
IC Incinerators Zeta 26.59
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 16.03
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 14.60
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -3.03
Big Island Growas Zeta -10.33
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -12.56
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -29.75
Perth Scorpions Alpha -45.59
Saipan Fighters Zeta -57.62
Auckland Flames Alpha -75.60
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -138.67
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -149.30
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -158.50
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -169.85
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -177.39
Australian Marauders Zeta -193.24
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -238.80

-----------------------------------------------------------

Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 11 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...

Week 10 predictions: 11-5-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 123-35-2

Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.779
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.777
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.776
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.743
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.739
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.716
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.706
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.654
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.633
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.594
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.575
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.570
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.555
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.515
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.502
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.502
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.498
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.498
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.485
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.445
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.430
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.425
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.406
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.367
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.346
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.294
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.284
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.261
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.257
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.224
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.223
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.221

-----------------------------------------------------------

Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:


Gold: FFLivewire Cans (9-1-0) at **FFLW Caninites (9-1-0) [game rating: 276.22]

Silver: **Rawle Tech Titans (9-1-0) at Brisbane Heat (9-1-0) [game rating: 269.49]

Bronze: **New England Burning Pride (8-2-0) at West Scranton Invaders (8-2-0) [game rating: 220.69]


**Favored in Predicted Win Probability

-----------------------------------------------------------

Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 10 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.

Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.


Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0

These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].


NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.

Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.

Getting kinda tight at the top, eh?!

6 of the 7 top Elo teams are against each other this week. Close games upcoming. Look out!

Originally posted by xp0
Getting kinda tight at the top, eh?!

6 of the 7 top Elo teams are against each other this week. Close games upcoming. Look out!




Thanks for doing. I could see the top matchups going either way.

Originally posted by xp0
Getting kinda tight at the top, eh?!

6 of the 7 top Elo teams are against each other this week. Close games upcoming. Look out!




You can broaden that out to 8 or the top ten. That's a pretty impressive line up for a late season schedule:

1 FFLW at 2 FFLivewire
3 Brisbane Heat at 5 Rawle Tech
4 Tonga at 10 East Coast
6 New England at 7 West Scranton

these ratings have been hating on the Heat all season

Good work but I thought we might leap to number 1 since we beat the two teams in front of us. That's why human power rankings are the best.

There is little room for error among the top 5 teams.

I can't argue with these rankings at all.

I am really enjoying being in Pro this season, where honestly, any of the top five teams could come up with reasons they should be ranked #1.

Originally posted by TheKingOfVa
Good work but I thought we might leap to number 1 since we beat the two teams in front of us. That's why human power rankings are the best.

And you likely will if you beat Rawle Tech I would imagine.

Great work, as always. Not really sure about being favored against West Scranton, but it'll definitely be a good game.

Originally posted by BradyFTW
Great work, as always. Not really sure about being favored against West Scranton, but it'll definitely be a good game.

I could see that. Have quite a bit of recovery on chem to do before playoffs..

Originally posted by TheKingOfVa
Good work but I thought we might leap to number 1 since we beat the two teams in front of us. That's why human power rankings are the best.

In a human poll you would be number 1, IMO.

Since this a numbers ranking, it is a little different. I can see any number of teams winning it this season.

This is going to be fun!

Originally posted by TheKingOfVa
Good work but I thought we might leap to number 1 since we beat the two teams in front of us. That's why human power rankings are the best.

Yall should definitely now be ahead of us (Cans). I can understand why yall might be behind the Nites. The difference maker (since the Heat/Nites game could have gone either way.. all AI problems aside) is that your only loss came to a team that they destroyed.

Originally posted by steelerblitz
Originally posted by TheKingOfVa

Good work but I thought we might leap to number 1 since we beat the two teams in front of us. That's why human power rankings are the best.

In a human poll you would be number 1, IMO.



Agreed.

There are some good games today.

Originally posted by MC_Hammer
Originally posted by TheKingOfVa

Good work but I thought we might leap to number 1 since we beat the two teams in front of us. That's why human power rankings are the best.

And you likely will if you beat Rawle Tech I would imagine.

Hopefully this theory doesn't get tested out.