Warrior General Games

Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League (OPL) post wk 6 games...

FFLivewire Cans Zeta 117.72
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 79.16
FFLW Caninites Zeta 76.73
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 75.83
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 72.11
IC Incinerators Zeta 70.75
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 69.17
East Coast Tide Alpha 68.17
Brisbane Heat Zeta 64.80
New England Burning Pride Alpha 64.63
Canberra Strike Alpha 63.46
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 61.27
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 47.01
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 43.46
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 42.12
Brisbane Gods Zeta 19.09
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 5.89
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 5.05
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -3.94
Perth Scorpions Alpha -13.38
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -14.46
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -14.82
Auckland Flames Alpha -16.95
Big Island Growas Zeta -45.32
Saipan Fighters Zeta -58.40
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -83.69
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -95.92
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -96.21
Australian Marauders Zeta -126.48
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -143.76
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -149.11
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -183.97

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Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 7 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...

Week 6 predictions: 14-2-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 67-27-2

Canberra Strike Alpha 0.810
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.716
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.695
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.685
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.644
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.624
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.622
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.621
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.620
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.608
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.546
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.537
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.530
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.523
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.513
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.503
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.497
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.487
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.477
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.470
Australian Marauders Zeta 0.463
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.454
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.392
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.380
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.379
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.378
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.376
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.356
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.315
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.305
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.284
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.190

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Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:


Gold: **East Coast Tide (5-1-0) at West Scranton Invaders (5-1-0) [game rating: 136.34]

Silver: **IC Incinerators (5-1-0) at Brisbane Heat (5-1-0) [game rating: 129.61]

Bronze: **Tonga Ikale Tahi (5-1-0) at Brantford Mustangs (4-2-0) [game rating: 122.54]


**Favored in Predicted Win Probability

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Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 6 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.

Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.


Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0

These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].


NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.

Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.

big game this week - let's make it a good one IC

So Dogdandy has a 19% chance of beating Canberra? :blink:

Some really good games again this week. Good luck guys.

Originally posted by lukin83
So Dogdandy has a 19% chance of beating Canberra? :blink:

From what I remember about what he said on his rating, the probability percentage doesn't correllate directly to %-age chance of winning. I think he said that a tean listed around .666 or better is favored to be on the better half of a blowout. So Canberra being at .81 must mean they are odds on to set Dogdandy's stadium on fire, salt the earth, and do things to their women that even Kevin and his monkey can't conceive....

Originally posted by SCACE
big game this week - let's make it a good one IC

You know it! What a pain in the ass you guys are to scout. Having trouble seeing any weaknesses at all.

Originally posted by tahl
Originally posted by SCACE

big game this week - let's make it a good one IC

You know it! What a pain in the ass you guys are to scout. Having trouble seeing any weaknesses at all.

My TE has been a weakness all season, just ignore him

Well Heat looks like you nailed us pretty hard. I was in charge of the Offensive tactics this week as our fearless leader was in the midst of some serious lightening storm. I'll take the loss squarely on my shoulders.

Hell of an ass whooping you guys gave us.

Originally posted by tahl
Well Heat looks like you nailed us pretty hard. I was in charge of the Offensive tactics this week as our fearless leader was in the midst of some serious lightening storm. I'll take the loss squarely on my shoulders.

Hell of an ass whooping you guys gave us.

The DE's definitely feasted today...8 sacks, unexpected.

Interesting 4th down shots, a couple of them paid off with TD's.

I had actually anticipated the blitz's coming from that side... but with only 3 hours to give a game plan to the team I don't think they had time to set the appropriate blocking style that I'd asked for. I only know of 2 other people that were able to check in before the game. Meh.. All is well, at least we got 341 yards on ya... so we went down fighting anyway.

Originally posted by tahl
I had actually anticipated the blitz's coming from that side... but with only 3 hours to give a game plan to the team I don't think they had time to set the appropriate blocking style that I'd asked for. I only know of 2 other people that were able to check in before the game. Meh.. All is well, at least we got 341 yards on ya... so we went down fighting anyway.

Definitely...you really toasted our secondary

Arrrgh! Not a good time to have power outages, but good game planning Heat. Looks like you did your job scouting.