Here's the playoff picture after 15 games.
The number in {brackets} next to each team is their "magic number." ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_number_%28sports%29 ) Any combination of wins by your team or losses by the team you need to finish ahead of means you clinch a playoff spot.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1 Akron Assassins 15-0 [CLINCHED #1]
2 Alpine Golfers 14-1 [CLINCHED #2]
3 Chicago Bruins 13-2 [CLINCHED #3]
4 Memphis Ghetto Dawgs 12-3 [CLINCHED #4]
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5 North Carolina Lighthouses 10-5 [CLINCHED #6 or better] {1 for #5}
6 Tampa Vipers 9-6 [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {1 for #6 / 2 for #5}
7 New Orleans Eagles 8-7 [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT]
8 Klamath Falls Grizzlies 8-7 [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT]
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9 Schenectady Comets 7-8 [ELIMINATED]
10 Philadelphia Brokebacks 6-9 [ELIMINATED]
11 South Beach Tokers 5-10 [ELIMINATED]
12 Richmond Speed 5-10 [ELIMINATED]
13 Denver Stallions 4-11 [ELIMINATED]
14 Orlando Mambas 2-13 [ELIMINATED]
15 The Forgotten One's 1-14 [ELIMINATED]
16 Elk Rapids Elks 1-14 [ELIMINATED]
The top 4 are set in the East. Akron, Alpine, Chicago and Memphis will fill in the top 4 seeds in that order, and no changes are possible. Those seeds are locked in place no matter what happens in the finale.
The rest of the playoff teams are set as well, with Schenectady and Philadelphia finally eliminated. From there, it gets interesting.
#5 could still go to either North Carolina or Tampa. North Carolina just needs a win over Rocky Mountain (9-6) to clinch the 5-seed for themselves. If they lose, however, they open the door to Tampa, who owns the tie-breaker over NC. Tampa has an easy date with Ambridge (1-15) and will almost certainly win. Combine a Tampa win with a North Carolina loss, and Tampa is the 5-seed while NC settles in at #6. At least North Carolina can't slide down any further than #6, but thanks to Tampa's easy opponent, NC needs this win over Rocky Mountain if they want the 5-seed.
The 6-through-8 seeds are still open as well. A 3-way tie with 9-7 records is still technically possible between Tampa, New Orleans and Klamath Falls, but that would require Tampa losing to Ambridge (1-15)... not bloody likely. A Tampa win locks them in at no worse than #6.
Assuming Tampa wins, that leaves New Orleans and Klamath Falls duking it out for 7 and 8. They're tied at the moment, but New Orleans owns the tie-breaker. If New Orleans wins over Dakota (2-13), they lock themselves in at #7. If New Orleans loses AND Klamath Falls beats San Diego (14-1), Klamath Falls will have a better record and will make the tie-breaker irrelevant, locking in #7. But Klamath Falls taking the 7-seed would require two monumental upsets, so that's not likely either.
Realistically, 5 and 6 are still up in the air, while #7 will probably go to New Orleans and #8 will probably go to Klamath Falls. But if upsets start happening, all bets are off.
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WESTERN CONFERENCE
1 San Diego Marauders 14-1 [CLINCHED TOP-2] {1 for #1}
2 Albuquerque Mustangs 13-2 [CLINCHED TOP-4] {1 for #2 / 2 for #1}
3 Anchorage Seawolves 13-2 [CLINCHED TOP-4] {1 for #3 / 2 for #2}
4 Omaha Dogs 12-3 [CLINCHED #4 OR BETTER]
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5 Reno 911 11-4 [CLINCHED #5]
6 Chattanooga Quarantine 10-5 L [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {1 for #6}
7 Rocky Mountain Rampage 9-6 W [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {1 for #7}
8 Hyborian Divine Messengers 9-6 L [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {2 for #7}
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9 San Francisco Wildcats 7-8 [ELIMINATED]
10 Houston Apollos 7-8 [ELIMINATED]
11 Oakyville Nungas 4-11 [ELIMINATED]
12 Kalamazoo Wolverines 4-11 [ELIMINATED]
13 Dakota Ruffians 2-13 [ELIMINATED]
14 Trojan Warriors 2-13 [ELIMINATED]
15 Corvallis Furburgers 2-13 [ELIMINATED]
16 Ambridge Bridgade 1-14 [ELIMINATED]
San Diego has clinched a top-2 finish, but their loss to Albuquerque means they can't afford a tie in the standings. They need to beat Klamath Falls (8-7) to clinch the conference title.
Albuquerque has a top-4 finish clinched, and with a finale against The Forgotten Ones (1-14), they'll almost certainly finish 14-2 to clinch the #2 seed. And if San Diego somehow wets the bed against Klamath Falls, Albuquerque will take the conference title!
Assuming San Diego and Albuquerque win... Anchorage owns the tie-breaker over Omaha, so the only way Anchorage could lose the #3 seed would be for Albuquerque AND Anchorage to both lose. Anchorage's next opponent is South Beach (5-10), so that's not likely. A win for Anchorage locks in #3.
Omaha owns the tie-breaker over Reno 911, so Omaha is locked in at no lower than #4 no matter what else happens.
Reno owns the tie-breaker over Chattanooga, so Reno is a lock-in at #5, no higher, no lower.
The 6, 7 and 8 seeds get really interesting...
Chattanooga closes against Akron (15-0). Call me crazy, but I think Chattanooga will lose that one and finish 10-6.
Rocky Mountain closes against North Carolina (10-5)... that one's a toss-up.
Hyborian closes against Memphis (12-3)... a tall order, but not impossible.
If Chattanooga loses while Rocky Mountain and Hyborian win, the result will be a 3-way tie at 10-6. And there's a 3-way win-loop among those teams: Chattanooga beat Rocky Mountain, who beat Hyborian, who beat Chattanooga. That makes the head-to-head tie-breaker worthless, which means it would come down to the points-scored tie-breaker. Here's how that looks right now, with 1 game left to play:
Rocky Mountain - 403
Chattanooga - 338
Hyborian - 304
But that 3-way tie only happens if Hyborian upsets Memphis... not impossible, but also not likely.
So let's see what happens if Hyborian loses to Memphis. Chattanooga owns the head-to-head tie-breaker over Rocky Mountain, so Chattanooga would take the #6 seed win-or-lose. And Rocky Mountain owns the head-to-head tie-breaker over Hyborian, so Rocky Mountain would take the #7 seed win-or-lose.
And there you have it! Under the most-likely scenario, #6 is Chattanooga, #7 is Rocky Mountain, and #8 is Hyborian.
The number in {brackets} next to each team is their "magic number." ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_number_%28sports%29 ) Any combination of wins by your team or losses by the team you need to finish ahead of means you clinch a playoff spot.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1 Akron Assassins 15-0 [CLINCHED #1]
2 Alpine Golfers 14-1 [CLINCHED #2]
3 Chicago Bruins 13-2 [CLINCHED #3]
4 Memphis Ghetto Dawgs 12-3 [CLINCHED #4]
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5 North Carolina Lighthouses 10-5 [CLINCHED #6 or better] {1 for #5}
6 Tampa Vipers 9-6 [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {1 for #6 / 2 for #5}
7 New Orleans Eagles 8-7 [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT]
8 Klamath Falls Grizzlies 8-7 [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT]
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9 Schenectady Comets 7-8 [ELIMINATED]
10 Philadelphia Brokebacks 6-9 [ELIMINATED]
11 South Beach Tokers 5-10 [ELIMINATED]
12 Richmond Speed 5-10 [ELIMINATED]
13 Denver Stallions 4-11 [ELIMINATED]
14 Orlando Mambas 2-13 [ELIMINATED]
15 The Forgotten One's 1-14 [ELIMINATED]
16 Elk Rapids Elks 1-14 [ELIMINATED]
The top 4 are set in the East. Akron, Alpine, Chicago and Memphis will fill in the top 4 seeds in that order, and no changes are possible. Those seeds are locked in place no matter what happens in the finale.
The rest of the playoff teams are set as well, with Schenectady and Philadelphia finally eliminated. From there, it gets interesting.
#5 could still go to either North Carolina or Tampa. North Carolina just needs a win over Rocky Mountain (9-6) to clinch the 5-seed for themselves. If they lose, however, they open the door to Tampa, who owns the tie-breaker over NC. Tampa has an easy date with Ambridge (1-15) and will almost certainly win. Combine a Tampa win with a North Carolina loss, and Tampa is the 5-seed while NC settles in at #6. At least North Carolina can't slide down any further than #6, but thanks to Tampa's easy opponent, NC needs this win over Rocky Mountain if they want the 5-seed.
The 6-through-8 seeds are still open as well. A 3-way tie with 9-7 records is still technically possible between Tampa, New Orleans and Klamath Falls, but that would require Tampa losing to Ambridge (1-15)... not bloody likely. A Tampa win locks them in at no worse than #6.
Assuming Tampa wins, that leaves New Orleans and Klamath Falls duking it out for 7 and 8. They're tied at the moment, but New Orleans owns the tie-breaker. If New Orleans wins over Dakota (2-13), they lock themselves in at #7. If New Orleans loses AND Klamath Falls beats San Diego (14-1), Klamath Falls will have a better record and will make the tie-breaker irrelevant, locking in #7. But Klamath Falls taking the 7-seed would require two monumental upsets, so that's not likely either.
Realistically, 5 and 6 are still up in the air, while #7 will probably go to New Orleans and #8 will probably go to Klamath Falls. But if upsets start happening, all bets are off.
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WESTERN CONFERENCE
1 San Diego Marauders 14-1 [CLINCHED TOP-2] {1 for #1}
2 Albuquerque Mustangs 13-2 [CLINCHED TOP-4] {1 for #2 / 2 for #1}
3 Anchorage Seawolves 13-2 [CLINCHED TOP-4] {1 for #3 / 2 for #2}
4 Omaha Dogs 12-3 [CLINCHED #4 OR BETTER]
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5 Reno 911 11-4 [CLINCHED #5]
6 Chattanooga Quarantine 10-5 L [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {1 for #6}
7 Rocky Mountain Rampage 9-6 W [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {1 for #7}
8 Hyborian Divine Messengers 9-6 L [CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT] {2 for #7}
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9 San Francisco Wildcats 7-8 [ELIMINATED]
10 Houston Apollos 7-8 [ELIMINATED]
11 Oakyville Nungas 4-11 [ELIMINATED]
12 Kalamazoo Wolverines 4-11 [ELIMINATED]
13 Dakota Ruffians 2-13 [ELIMINATED]
14 Trojan Warriors 2-13 [ELIMINATED]
15 Corvallis Furburgers 2-13 [ELIMINATED]
16 Ambridge Bridgade 1-14 [ELIMINATED]
San Diego has clinched a top-2 finish, but their loss to Albuquerque means they can't afford a tie in the standings. They need to beat Klamath Falls (8-7) to clinch the conference title.
Albuquerque has a top-4 finish clinched, and with a finale against The Forgotten Ones (1-14), they'll almost certainly finish 14-2 to clinch the #2 seed. And if San Diego somehow wets the bed against Klamath Falls, Albuquerque will take the conference title!
Assuming San Diego and Albuquerque win... Anchorage owns the tie-breaker over Omaha, so the only way Anchorage could lose the #3 seed would be for Albuquerque AND Anchorage to both lose. Anchorage's next opponent is South Beach (5-10), so that's not likely. A win for Anchorage locks in #3.
Omaha owns the tie-breaker over Reno 911, so Omaha is locked in at no lower than #4 no matter what else happens.
Reno owns the tie-breaker over Chattanooga, so Reno is a lock-in at #5, no higher, no lower.
The 6, 7 and 8 seeds get really interesting...
Chattanooga closes against Akron (15-0). Call me crazy, but I think Chattanooga will lose that one and finish 10-6.
Rocky Mountain closes against North Carolina (10-5)... that one's a toss-up.
Hyborian closes against Memphis (12-3)... a tall order, but not impossible.
If Chattanooga loses while Rocky Mountain and Hyborian win, the result will be a 3-way tie at 10-6. And there's a 3-way win-loop among those teams: Chattanooga beat Rocky Mountain, who beat Hyborian, who beat Chattanooga. That makes the head-to-head tie-breaker worthless, which means it would come down to the points-scored tie-breaker. Here's how that looks right now, with 1 game left to play:
Rocky Mountain - 403
Chattanooga - 338
Hyborian - 304
But that 3-way tie only happens if Hyborian upsets Memphis... not impossible, but also not likely.
So let's see what happens if Hyborian loses to Memphis. Chattanooga owns the head-to-head tie-breaker over Rocky Mountain, so Chattanooga would take the #6 seed win-or-lose. And Rocky Mountain owns the head-to-head tie-breaker over Hyborian, so Rocky Mountain would take the #7 seed win-or-lose.
And there you have it! Under the most-likely scenario, #6 is Chattanooga, #7 is Rocky Mountain, and #8 is Hyborian.
Thanks Novus.
