Well the dance card is set. The Playoffs are here, and inbetween rounds of Golf, I figured I would put out my playoff predictions. The regular season games were a lot easier to predict, as they are generally less crazy than the playoff games(if you consider 12 picks in one game less crazy). Also the differences in Team Chemistry and player levels were more pronounced. In the playoffs though, anything goes so the predictions are more art than science.
Here are the current playoff seeds.
1 Honolulu Hurricane Wife Carriers 15-1-0
2 New Jersey Battalion 15-1-0
3 Austin Wineswilling Fancy Boys 13-3-0
4 Ketchikan Kamper Adventure Rentals 11-5-0
5 Richmond Rebel Yell 10-6-0 1
6 SOUTH GEORGIA GROWL 9-7-0
7 New Orleans Hoodoo Voodoo 9-7-0
8 Chicago Beasts 8-8
The round 1 games will be:
1. Honolulu Hurricane Wife Carriers
8. Chicago Beasts
4. Ketchikan Kamper Adventure Rentals
5. Richmond Rebel Yell
2. New Jersey Battalion
7. New Orleans Hoodoo Voodoo
3. Austin Wineswilling Fancy Boys
6. SOUTH GEORGIA GROWL
Now the breakdown:
Honolulu Hurricane Wife Carriers VS Chicago Beasts
After week 11 the Beasts were all but eliminated from the playoffs. Even if they won out, they would have to count on help to get in. And the stars aligned, the clouds parted, and their prayers were answered. They did all they could do, and they got the help they needed with an 8 Mile loss to New Orleans. That and a soft Cross Conference match at the beginning of the season gave them 8 wins, and a ticket to the big dance.
On the other end of the spectrum is Honolulu. They lost their first round game, but then won out from there, securing them the tiebreaker with New Jersey for 1st place. The disparities between the two teams are stark, with Honolulu boasting the top offense and the top defense in the Conference. Chicago did put up pretty impressive offensive numbers this season, but their defense was middle of the pack, and they dropped some early winnable game.
Summary: As with most 1 vs 8 matchups, this game will be lopsided. Honolulu beat Chicago 75 - 7 in the regular season. I expect a similar result in round 1.
Prediction: 56 - 10 Honolulu
Ketchikan Kamper Adventure Rentals VS Richmond Rebel Yell
Richmond Richmond, where for art though Richmond. Early on in the season Richmond looked worthy of their 3rd Seeding, but something happened for the 2nd half of the season, that took away that aura of strength. It started with the loss to SOUTH GEORGIA. It was a game they were "supposed" to win. Up until then QB Telekinesis Kyle was able to pass his way out of any trouble, and even still is one of the best QB's in the Conference. But with that game Richmond turned the corner, and began slowly by inches, their decline from very good, to just good.
KKAR started of the season with one of the weakest schedules(with hindsight) in the Conference. They didn't even look particularly threatening early on, just quietly racking up the wins, most often in close games, which took them to 7-1 going into the home stretch. Having so many close games gave the impression that maybe they were not as good as their record suggested. What people, (Including this writer) missed, was that they were steadily getting better each game. They dropped their 9th game against New Orleans in another close game, and beat Bratislava by an unimpressive score as well. Putting them at 8-2. They then proceeded to drop their next 2 games against New Jersey, and Austin by decent margins. Now 8-4. Just as the season seemed to be heading in the wrong direction, they got a much needed shootout win against 8 Mile, that gave them 9 wins, a playoff spot, and a much needed boost in morale. They used the momentum to steam past their next 2 opponents before dropping their last game to the #1 seed Honolulu. All the while.... getting better, silently getting better.
Summary: As the season went on Richmond seemed to be getting worse, and KKAR seemed to get better. This is going to be a close game, but as history suggests, there isn't anyone in the league that is better at winning close games than KKAR.
Prediction: 24 - 17 KKAR
New Jersey Battalion VS New Orleans Hoodoo Voodoo
The New Orleans Hoodoo Voodoo has shown themselves to be a capable team that deserves to be in the USPL. They have a well ballanced offense, and a solid defense that is capable of making stops when needed. Mid way through the season they were 4-4, and looking average. They finished above average though with a 9-7 record. The critical game in their season was the 27 - 13 win against 8 Mile, which kept them from a tie breaker at 8 - 8 that they would have lost. Getting the 7th seed was just icing on the cake.
New Jersey only lost to Honolulu during the season. Easily dominating all other opponents, except Richmond, who put up a great fight early in the season. With arguably the 2nd best QB in the Conference, they are not an easy team to play against. They also have the 2nd ranked Defense in the league, boasting a measly 16.5 points per game.
Summary: While New Orleans has put together a really good team, and is excellent at game planning, the player talent is on the side of New Jersey. Considering that the Coaching Staff at New Jersey are excellent as well, I think team talent will win the day. New Jersey has the big play passing to get the job done.
Prediction: 45 - 26 New Jersey
Austin Wineswilling Fancy Boys VS SOUTH GEORGIA GROWL
SOUTH GEORGIA had a horrible start to the season. A lot of that was due to the ridiculously low Team Chemistry they started the season with. Another big part of it was that they faced some of the toughest teams in the league early. They made it up in the 2nd half of the season going 6-2, only dropping games to KKAR and Corpus Christi. Both losses were a bit of a mystery. KKAR and the GROWL should be on about the same level, and it looked like the turnovers were the difference in that game. Turnovers were also a factor in the game against Corpus Christi, with GEORGIA throwing another 4 picks. They will need to get the Picks under control if they expect to go anywhere in the playoffs.
Austin has only 3 losses this season. Their 1st loss was a cross conference match against the San Diego Lightning. It may have cost them the 2nd seed. Other than that they didn't have too much of a problem against anyone other than their loss against Honolulu when their DC was out of town. Then in their last game of the season, they lost to New Jersey by an incredible 108 - 20 margin, with and unheard of 14 turnovers. Never seen a game like it. Since I expect that was an anomaly far beyond the bounds of reason, I expect they will do better in the playoffs.
Summary: While SOUTH GEORGIA has steadily improved as their TC has improved over the season, Austin has gotten better as well. Austin has the edge on Average Level, and Effective Level, and the difference between the coaching staff is a wash IMHO. All things equal, the stronger team wins. I think it will be closer than people might expect though.
Prediction: 34 - 24 Austin
Here are the current playoff seeds.
1 Honolulu Hurricane Wife Carriers 15-1-0
2 New Jersey Battalion 15-1-0
3 Austin Wineswilling Fancy Boys 13-3-0
4 Ketchikan Kamper Adventure Rentals 11-5-0
5 Richmond Rebel Yell 10-6-0 1
6 SOUTH GEORGIA GROWL 9-7-0
7 New Orleans Hoodoo Voodoo 9-7-0
8 Chicago Beasts 8-8
The round 1 games will be:
1. Honolulu Hurricane Wife Carriers
8. Chicago Beasts
4. Ketchikan Kamper Adventure Rentals
5. Richmond Rebel Yell
2. New Jersey Battalion
7. New Orleans Hoodoo Voodoo
3. Austin Wineswilling Fancy Boys
6. SOUTH GEORGIA GROWL
Now the breakdown:
Honolulu Hurricane Wife Carriers VS Chicago Beasts
After week 11 the Beasts were all but eliminated from the playoffs. Even if they won out, they would have to count on help to get in. And the stars aligned, the clouds parted, and their prayers were answered. They did all they could do, and they got the help they needed with an 8 Mile loss to New Orleans. That and a soft Cross Conference match at the beginning of the season gave them 8 wins, and a ticket to the big dance.
On the other end of the spectrum is Honolulu. They lost their first round game, but then won out from there, securing them the tiebreaker with New Jersey for 1st place. The disparities between the two teams are stark, with Honolulu boasting the top offense and the top defense in the Conference. Chicago did put up pretty impressive offensive numbers this season, but their defense was middle of the pack, and they dropped some early winnable game.
Summary: As with most 1 vs 8 matchups, this game will be lopsided. Honolulu beat Chicago 75 - 7 in the regular season. I expect a similar result in round 1.
Prediction: 56 - 10 Honolulu
Ketchikan Kamper Adventure Rentals VS Richmond Rebel Yell
Richmond Richmond, where for art though Richmond. Early on in the season Richmond looked worthy of their 3rd Seeding, but something happened for the 2nd half of the season, that took away that aura of strength. It started with the loss to SOUTH GEORGIA. It was a game they were "supposed" to win. Up until then QB Telekinesis Kyle was able to pass his way out of any trouble, and even still is one of the best QB's in the Conference. But with that game Richmond turned the corner, and began slowly by inches, their decline from very good, to just good.
KKAR started of the season with one of the weakest schedules(with hindsight) in the Conference. They didn't even look particularly threatening early on, just quietly racking up the wins, most often in close games, which took them to 7-1 going into the home stretch. Having so many close games gave the impression that maybe they were not as good as their record suggested. What people, (Including this writer) missed, was that they were steadily getting better each game. They dropped their 9th game against New Orleans in another close game, and beat Bratislava by an unimpressive score as well. Putting them at 8-2. They then proceeded to drop their next 2 games against New Jersey, and Austin by decent margins. Now 8-4. Just as the season seemed to be heading in the wrong direction, they got a much needed shootout win against 8 Mile, that gave them 9 wins, a playoff spot, and a much needed boost in morale. They used the momentum to steam past their next 2 opponents before dropping their last game to the #1 seed Honolulu. All the while.... getting better, silently getting better.
Summary: As the season went on Richmond seemed to be getting worse, and KKAR seemed to get better. This is going to be a close game, but as history suggests, there isn't anyone in the league that is better at winning close games than KKAR.
Prediction: 24 - 17 KKAR
New Jersey Battalion VS New Orleans Hoodoo Voodoo
The New Orleans Hoodoo Voodoo has shown themselves to be a capable team that deserves to be in the USPL. They have a well ballanced offense, and a solid defense that is capable of making stops when needed. Mid way through the season they were 4-4, and looking average. They finished above average though with a 9-7 record. The critical game in their season was the 27 - 13 win against 8 Mile, which kept them from a tie breaker at 8 - 8 that they would have lost. Getting the 7th seed was just icing on the cake.
New Jersey only lost to Honolulu during the season. Easily dominating all other opponents, except Richmond, who put up a great fight early in the season. With arguably the 2nd best QB in the Conference, they are not an easy team to play against. They also have the 2nd ranked Defense in the league, boasting a measly 16.5 points per game.
Summary: While New Orleans has put together a really good team, and is excellent at game planning, the player talent is on the side of New Jersey. Considering that the Coaching Staff at New Jersey are excellent as well, I think team talent will win the day. New Jersey has the big play passing to get the job done.
Prediction: 45 - 26 New Jersey
Austin Wineswilling Fancy Boys VS SOUTH GEORGIA GROWL
SOUTH GEORGIA had a horrible start to the season. A lot of that was due to the ridiculously low Team Chemistry they started the season with. Another big part of it was that they faced some of the toughest teams in the league early. They made it up in the 2nd half of the season going 6-2, only dropping games to KKAR and Corpus Christi. Both losses were a bit of a mystery. KKAR and the GROWL should be on about the same level, and it looked like the turnovers were the difference in that game. Turnovers were also a factor in the game against Corpus Christi, with GEORGIA throwing another 4 picks. They will need to get the Picks under control if they expect to go anywhere in the playoffs.
Austin has only 3 losses this season. Their 1st loss was a cross conference match against the San Diego Lightning. It may have cost them the 2nd seed. Other than that they didn't have too much of a problem against anyone other than their loss against Honolulu when their DC was out of town. Then in their last game of the season, they lost to New Jersey by an incredible 108 - 20 margin, with and unheard of 14 turnovers. Never seen a game like it. Since I expect that was an anomaly far beyond the bounds of reason, I expect they will do better in the playoffs.
Summary: While SOUTH GEORGIA has steadily improved as their TC has improved over the season, Austin has gotten better as well. Austin has the edge on Average Level, and Effective Level, and the difference between the coaching staff is a wash IMHO. All things equal, the stronger team wins. I think it will be closer than people might expect though.
Prediction: 34 - 24 Austin
