Warrior General Games

Gameday is upon us, and I figured I would post the netpoint point spreads.

This is not based on opinion, but rather net point average.

Basically that means the amount Team 1 normally wins by, subtracted by the amount Team 2 normally wins by. If that number is a positive number, that's the point spread advantage Team 1 has. If that number is a negative number, that is the point spread advantage Team 2 has. There's also more weight in the final 8 games, to give teams that took a while to get going a little more credit, and to lessen the results of teams who have been slumping, but started hot.

UPDATE: Altered rankings to include additional emphasis on the final 8 games.

Western Conference
#1 Fremont Warriors vs #8 Island Shaka Brah's (Fremont +4)
#2 MaddenWars vs #7 Rhode Island Revolutionaries (Madden +50)
#3 West Coast Llama's vs #6 Fort Lauderdale Merkins (Llama +18)
#4 Dallas Annihilators vs #5 Hobbs Gerbil Wranglers (Hobbs +5)

Eastern Conference
#1 Beer Town Brawlers vs #8 Cincinnati Norris Ninjas (Beer Town +33)
#2 Philadelphia Pythons vs #7 Chicago Sirius (+21 Pythons)
#3 Boston DrunkN'Disorderly vs #6 Appalachian Mountaineers (Boston +3)
#4 J-Villains vs #5 Washington Capitals (J-Villains +2)

Highest Spreads
1. MaddenWars by +50
2. BeerTown by +33

Closest Spreads
1. J-Villains by +2
2. Boston by +3

With this method, the Hobbs Gerbil Wranglers have the best chance of the lower-seeded teams to advance. There would also be four games decided by a touchdown or less.

Teams who had a weak schedule over the final 8 games may benefit more with this, and teams who had a strong schedule over the final 8 games may have a lower spread than they should, but all-in-all I think the results look realistic for the most part.

+37...

I think I will bet the under. The last time we played these guys they put up a good fight and held us to 19 and that was two weeks ago.

They are better than their record suggests.

Good luck to everyone.

Originally posted by Sir William PD

I think I will bet the under. The last time we played these guys they put up a good fight and held us to 19 and that was two weeks ago.

They are better than their record suggests.


/agree. good luck.

updated.

Just call it what it is, netpointless predictions.

I'm going to guess that the Shakas being favored over Fremont is a result of easy vs. tough schedules down the stretch, but I like the idea of using the last 8 games, since several teams improved substancially over the course of the season.

Nice job DLight.

StickMan

I was thinking of a way to weigh games 8-16 more heavily without totally negating the entire season. Would this formula work?

Games 1-16 net point difference +/- games 8-16 net point difference, divide by two and receive an average among the season and hot-streak.

This way, you basically weigh 8-16 more heavily. Is that math right? The results would look like the following:

Western Conference
#1 Fremont Warriors vs #8 Island Shaka Brah's (Fremont +4)
#2 MaddenWars vs #7 Rhode Island Revolutionaries (Madden +50)
#3 West Coast Llama's vs #6 Fort Lauderdale Merkins (Llama +18)
#4 Dallas Annihilators vs #5 Hobbs Gerbil Wranglers (Hobbs +5)

Eastern Conference
#1 Beer Town Brawlers vs #8 Cincinnati Norris Ninjas (Beer Town +33)
#2 Philadelphia Pythons vs #7 Chicago Sirius (+21 Pythons)
#3 Boston DrunkN'Disorderly vs #6 Appalachian Mountaineers (Boston +3)
#4 J-Villains vs #5 Washington Capitals (J-Villains +2)

Highest Spreads
1. MaddenWars by +50
2. BeerTown by +33

Closest Spreads
1. J-Villains by +2
2. Boston by +3

I'm not sure how accurate the math is in this example, but the results seem a little more reasonable for the most part. A lot of the results are closer.

You and Stickman clearly drink the same cool aid

Good work it is nice to see the effort you to put into this.

I think our game today will be closer than 33 but who knows week to week I am suprised sometimes...

I'm not sure that's how I'd explain it. I think I'd say ((games 1-7)+2*(games 8-16))/3, because when you use games 1-16 you have you're counting the last half of the season twice.

So I think if I understand what you've written, then what you have is fine, I just prefer to write it a little differently.

Thanks,
StickMan

I intended to count the last half of the season twice. I wanted to average it in as a separate entity on top of the entire season, and that's the hot-streak that makes 8-16 more heavily weighted. That could cause it to be weighed too much, but that's the way I did do it.

ok damnit you guys are making my heard hurt!

Good work on this DLight. It makes for good reading.

Originally posted by DLight03
I intended to count the last half of the season twice. I wanted to average it in as a separate entity on top of the entire season, and that's the hot-streak that makes 8-16 more heavily weighted. That could cause it to be weighed too much, but that's the way I did do it.

Nice. So then yeah. I think that makes your math do what you wanted it to do.

StickMan

dont you mean the spreads in negative and not positive? madden +50 means madden is getting 50 points and therefore the underdog....

Point spread as in, the number of points the team will win by.

MaddenWars has a point spread of +50. This also means the Revolutionaries have a point spread of -50, as in they are predicted to lose by as much.

Boston has a point spread of +3, as such they are predicted to win by 3 points (be it 27-24, or even 3-0).

etc etc...

MaddenWars winning by 50 isn't unfeasible, since you defeated the same team by 57 just a few games ago.

I'm sure there are plenty of different spread usages though, but this is how it is defined here.

yea its not hard to figure out, people write point spreads in different ways, i got you DLight