Warrior General Games

I input all of the season data into the League Projector spreadsheet from the main forums: http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=1376433

After 7 games it's good enough to start posting it. These aren't my personal projections, just what the sheet is reporting. And of course the Toulouse scores are going to monkey with accuracy.

Alpha Conference
Bonn Dynamo vs E-City Mercenaries (31-27) Spread: 4
Woodridge Lumberjacks vs Dinas Mawddwy Red Bandits (27-18) Spread: 9
Turin THUNDER vs Toulouse Aviators (82-13) Spread: 69
Graz Grizzlies vs Team Perkis (52-10) Spread: 42
Lyon Sharks vs Belfast Commandos (29-22) Spread: 7
Black Watch vs London Monarchs (31-22) Spread: 9
Paris Philharmonic vs Aberdeen Wrecking Crew (51-23) Spread: 28
Paris Dream Bolts vs West Wales Warriors (34-21) Spread: 13

Zeta Conference
Black Forest Mercenaries vs Berlin Ballers (36-19) Spread: 17
Stockholm Meatballs vs Sevilla Naranjas (62-10) Spread: 52
Rivals Mainboard Pimps vs Cardiff Bluebirds (29-28) Spread: 1
Korb Destroyers vs London Rippers (22-17) Spread: 5
Grass Roots Divots vs Lyon Dynasty (38-15) Spread: 23
London Hitmen vs PPP Longnecks (47-15) Spread: 32
A Team of Ice and Fire vs Edinburgh Black Knights (31-31) Spread: 0
Dallas Browns vs Antwerp Annihilators (29-25) Spread: 4

it has other reports such as toughest remaining schedule, projected standings, etc and even an RPI report (though for some reason the RPI report doesn't sort). If you guys want me to post those too I will.

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Update: After requests to manipulate the data a bit to accommodate the Toulouse factor, here are the new predictions and RPI after changing all of the Toulouse losses to 80-0

Alpha Conference
Bonn Dynamo vs E-City Mercenaries (33-27) Spread: 6
Woodridge Lumberjacks vs Dinas Mawddwy Red Bandits (31-13) Spread: 18
Turin THUNDER vs Toulouse Aviators (72-3) Spread: 69
Graz Grizzlies vs Team Perkis (53-11) Spread: 42
Aberdeen Wrecking Crew vs Paris Philharmonic (29-28) Spread: 1
Belfast Commandos vs Lyon Sharks (26-19) Spread: 7
Black Watch vs London Monarchs (32-22) Spread: 10
Paris Dream Bolts vs West Wales Warriors (36-22) Spread: 14

Zeta Conference
Black Forest Mercenaries vs Berlin Ballers (36-19) Spread: 17
Stockholm Meatballs vs Sevilla Naranjas (470-10) Spread: 460
Rivals Mainboard Pimps vs Cardiff Bluebirds (29-28) Spread: 1
Korb Destroyers vs London Rippers (23-17) Spread: 6
Grass Roots Divots vs Lyon Dynasty (37-16) Spread: 21
London Hitmen vs PPP Longnecks (47-15) Spread: 32
A Team of Ice and Fire vs Edinburgh Black Knights (31-31) Spread: 0
Dallas Browns vs Antwerp Annihilators (29-25) Spread: 4

**RPI**
Alpha Conference
1. - .603 - Graz Grizzlies
2. - .600 - Paris Dream Bolts
3. - .593 - Bonn Dynamo
4. - .576 - Woodridge Lumberjacks
5. - .540 - Paris Philharmonic
6. - .537 - Belfast Commandos
7. - .525 - Lyon Sharks
8. - .514 - West Wales Warriors
9. - .481 - Aberdeen Wrecking Crew
10. - .480 - Turin THUNDER
11. - .456 - London Monarchs
12. - .435 - E-City Mercenaries
13. - .401 - Black Watch
14. - .401 - Team Perkis
15. - .384 - Dinas Mawddwy Red Bandits
16. - .341 - Toulouse Aviators

Zeta Conference
1. - .662 - Grass Roots Divots
2. - .639 - Stockholm Meatballs
3. - .617 - Black Forest Mercenaries
4. - .603 - Korb Destroyers
5. - .578 - London Hitmen
6. - .550 - Cardiff Bluebirds
7. - .537 - A Team of Ice and Fire
8. - .520 - Rivals Mainboard Pimps
9. - .513 - Dallas Browns
10. - .498 - Antwerp Annihilators
11. - .486 - Berlin Ballers
12. - .467 - London Rippers
13. - .433 - Edinburgh Black Knights
14. - .393 - Lyon Dynasty
15. - .372 - PPP Longnecks
16. - .264 - Sevilla Naranjas

It looks like the RPI strictly goes off of record, becasuse the RPI didn't change (because Toulouse's record didn't change).

I predict a riot

Here is the RPI Report after I sorted it manually. The RPI report looks at your Opponents' winning percentages and your Opponents' Opponents' winning percentages and compares that with the results:

Alpha Conference
1. - .603 - Graz Grizzlies
2. - .600 - Paris Dream Bolts
3. - .593 - Bonn Dynamo
4. - .576 - Woodridge Lumberjacks
5. - .540 - Paris Philharmonic
6. - .537 - Belfast Commandos
7. - .525 - Lyon Sharks
8. - .514 - West Wales Warriors
9. - .481 - Aberdeen Wrecking Crew
10. - .480 - Turin THUNDER
11. - .456 - London Monarchs
12. - .435 - E-City Mercenaries
13. - .401 - Black Watch
14. - .401 - Team Perkis
15. - .384 - Dinas Mawddwy Red Bandits
16. - .341 - Toulouse Aviators


Zeta Conference
1. - .662 - Grass Roots Divots
2. - .639 - Stockholm Meatballs
3. - .617 - Black Forest Mercenaries
4. - .603 - Korb Destroyers
5. - .578 - London Hitmen
6. - .550 - Cardiff Bluebirds
7. - .537 - A Team of Ice and Fire
8. - .520 - Rivals Mainboard Pimps
9. - .513 - Dallas Browns
10. - .498 - Antwerp Annihilators
11. - .486 - Berlin Ballers
12. - .467 - London Rippers
13. - .433 - Edinburgh Black Knights
14. - .393 - Lyon Dynasty
15. - .372 - PPP Longnecks
16. - .264 - Sevilla Naranjas

interesting.....I like the predicted tie between ATOIAF and Edinburgh, but then the RPI report has ATOIAF at 7 and Edinburgh at 13............Should be fun to come back and look at this after several more games and see how accurate this snapshot was.

Originally posted by Wrath Of Conor
Here is the RPI Report after I sorted it manually. The RPI report looks at your Opponents' winning percentages and your Opponents' Opponents' winning percentages and compares that with the results:



At the end of the season wouldn't this be the same since everyone plays everyone once? Or is it including the non-conference game?

Originally posted by naki
Originally posted by Wrath Of Conor

Here is the RPI Report after I sorted it manually. The RPI report looks at your Opponents' winning percentages and your Opponents' Opponents' winning percentages and compares that with the results:



At the end of the season wouldn't this be the same since everyone plays everyone once? Or is it including the non-conference game?



Yes, but minus your own record and then I'm sure the formula relies on your results more once the opponent records are too similar.

Cool, thanks!

Thanks Wrath!!

Hey Wrath, do you have to input all these numbers yourself?

If so I'd suggest putting all Toulouse victories as like... 80-0 or something (even retroactively before they went CPU), just to dampen their effect.

I think this game:
Paris Philharmonic vs Aberdeen Wrecking Crew (51-23) Spread: 28

should be a lot closer and the reason the spread is so high is prob just because Paris beat Toulouse 255-0 last week.

Originally posted by
If so I'd suggest putting all Toulouse victories as like... 80-0 or something (even retroactively before they went CPU), just to dampen their effect.

I agree.

Originally posted by PJYoung
Originally posted by

If so I'd suggest putting all Toulouse victories as like... 80-0 or something (even retroactively before they went CPU), just to dampen their effect.

I agree.

What do you think we should do about Toulouse's game 1? They beat Sevilla so it messes everything up. If they had just lost all of their games it would have been better.

I updated the 1st post with after changing the Toulouse data.

Sweet... wrt the Toulouse-Sevilla game, that's tough. Simplest way would just be to act like Sevilla won as well =/

Originally posted by yoshi_yoshi
Sweet... wrt the Toulouse-Sevilla game, that's tough. Simplest way would just be to act like Sevilla won as well =/

It is what it is. We've earned our spot.

I'll put $100 on Sevilla +460.