1:3?
Forum > North American Pro League > USA Conference > Odds On the USA Pro winning GLB Pro World Tournament?
hud
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Early Odds then, get in while you can.
edit: assuming the best of the leagues play.
edit: assuming the best of the leagues play.
Last edited Feb 9, 2009 14:45:30
The Strategy Expert
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Well 64 teams and 8 Pro leagues, assuming about 8 USA Pro teams, that's 1/8 fraction on the numbers so you could set that as the lowest possible boundary. How much do you compensate for the USA Pro being better? I don't think the strength of the USAP is good enough to take it to the factor of 3 to 1, o I would go with 4 to 1 or even 5 to 1 as a more fair statistical measure. While I agree that USAP is the top league, in statistical gaming most people tend to way underestimate the sheer power of volume that the field has.
I'll go with 4.5 : 1
I'll go with 4.5 : 1
Last edited Feb 9, 2009 14:50:50
tomcollins
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Originally posted by The Strategy Expert
Well 64 teams and 8 Pro leagues, assuming about 8 USA Pro teams, that's 1/8 fraction on the numbers so you could set that as the lowest possible boundary. How much do you compensate for the USA Pro being better? I don't think the strength of the USAP is good enough to take it to the factor of 3 to 1, o I would go with 4 to 1 or even 5 to 1 as a more fair statistical measure. While I agree that USAP is the top league, in statistical gaming most people tend to way underestimate the sheer power of volume that the field has.
I'll go with 4.5 : 1
1/8 is only the lowest possible boundary if all teams were equally likely to win. They aren't. Even if USA Pro had teams #2-9 overall, if the best team is outside of USA Pro and considerably better, the odds of winning go down a lot. And I would still consider USA Pro to be the top league if they had all but one of the top 10 teams.
There isn't a huge gap between most of the top teams, so that's not as much of an issue in this case, but in general, the logic that it can't be lower than 1/8 is wrong. If a league is more than 1/8 to win, then another league has to be lower.
Well 64 teams and 8 Pro leagues, assuming about 8 USA Pro teams, that's 1/8 fraction on the numbers so you could set that as the lowest possible boundary. How much do you compensate for the USA Pro being better? I don't think the strength of the USAP is good enough to take it to the factor of 3 to 1, o I would go with 4 to 1 or even 5 to 1 as a more fair statistical measure. While I agree that USAP is the top league, in statistical gaming most people tend to way underestimate the sheer power of volume that the field has.
I'll go with 4.5 : 1
1/8 is only the lowest possible boundary if all teams were equally likely to win. They aren't. Even if USA Pro had teams #2-9 overall, if the best team is outside of USA Pro and considerably better, the odds of winning go down a lot. And I would still consider USA Pro to be the top league if they had all but one of the top 10 teams.
There isn't a huge gap between most of the top teams, so that's not as much of an issue in this case, but in general, the logic that it can't be lower than 1/8 is wrong. If a league is more than 1/8 to win, then another league has to be lower.
Galkuris
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The only problem is that team called West Scranton. I could see the final 8 being 6 USA, WS, and one other...with WS winning it.
Galkuris
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Originally posted by sckbleh
where was this tournament announced?
I believe your owner was PMed
http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=2029024
where was this tournament announced?
I believe your owner was PMed
http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=2029024
joemiken
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Originally posted by Galkuris
The only problem is that team called West Scranton. I could see the final 8 being 6 USA, WS, and one other...with WS winning it.
We'll sick K-zoo on them!
We're getting closer to figuring out/catching up to them.
The real bet should be odds of at least 2 of the final 4 being USA Pro teams.
The only problem is that team called West Scranton. I could see the final 8 being 6 USA, WS, and one other...with WS winning it.
We'll sick K-zoo on them!
We're getting closer to figuring out/catching up to them. The real bet should be odds of at least 2 of the final 4 being USA Pro teams.
hud
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Originally posted by Galkuris
The only problem is that team called West Scranton. I could see the final 8 being 6 USA, WS, and one other...with WS winning it.
Didn't the Monkeys almost beat them, and should have won?
You beat the monkeys, therefore Minny beats WS
actually i think there are a few teams that could beat them, they would have to have a great run.
WS odds are no higher than 1:6
The only problem is that team called West Scranton. I could see the final 8 being 6 USA, WS, and one other...with WS winning it.
Didn't the Monkeys almost beat them, and should have won?
You beat the monkeys, therefore Minny beats WS
actually i think there are a few teams that could beat them, they would have to have a great run.
WS odds are no higher than 1:6
sckbleh
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Originally posted by Galkuris
Originally posted by sckbleh
where was this tournament announced?
I believe your owner was PMed
http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=2029024
Owner hasn't logged in. Thanks for the forum link.
Originally posted by sckbleh
where was this tournament announced?
I believe your owner was PMed
http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=2029024
Owner hasn't logged in. Thanks for the forum link.
Last edited Feb 9, 2009 15:15:23
Saris
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With Santiago out, the odds should be just that much better for a USAP team.
Last edited Feb 9, 2009 15:23:57
The Strategy Expert
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Originally posted by tomcollins
There isn't a huge gap between most of the top teams, so that's not as much of an issue in this case, but in general, the logic that it can't be lower than 1/8 is wrong. If a league is more than 1/8 to win, then another league has to be lower.
It's because I'm operating under the assumption that USAP is just simply "better than average", so they can't be lower than the average which would work out to 7:1, or 1/8th
There isn't a huge gap between most of the top teams, so that's not as much of an issue in this case, but in general, the logic that it can't be lower than 1/8 is wrong. If a league is more than 1/8 to win, then another league has to be lower.
It's because I'm operating under the assumption that USAP is just simply "better than average", so they can't be lower than the average which would work out to 7:1, or 1/8th
tomcollins
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Originally posted by The Strategy Expert
Originally posted by tomcollins
There isn't a huge gap between most of the top teams, so that's not as much of an issue in this case, but in general, the logic that it can't be lower than 1/8 is wrong. If a league is more than 1/8 to win, then another league has to be lower.
It's because I'm operating under the assumption that USAP is just simply "better than average", so they can't be lower than the average which would work out to 7:1, or 1/8th
It only matters for the teams that have a legit chance of winning. How many teams do you think are capable of winning this thing? Say even having a 1 out of 200 chance of winning? I would guess its pretty few, maybe as few as 10-15 of them. Do you agree with this number?
I haven't been following who the top teams are, or what leagues they are in, but there are definitely a lot of top teams in other leagues, and that would even it out.
Your prediction of 4.5:1 is probably pretty close, or at least in the right ballpark, as I don't think there are any teams out there who are head and shoulders above the other top teams.
Originally posted by tomcollins
There isn't a huge gap between most of the top teams, so that's not as much of an issue in this case, but in general, the logic that it can't be lower than 1/8 is wrong. If a league is more than 1/8 to win, then another league has to be lower.
It's because I'm operating under the assumption that USAP is just simply "better than average", so they can't be lower than the average which would work out to 7:1, or 1/8th
It only matters for the teams that have a legit chance of winning. How many teams do you think are capable of winning this thing? Say even having a 1 out of 200 chance of winning? I would guess its pretty few, maybe as few as 10-15 of them. Do you agree with this number?
I haven't been following who the top teams are, or what leagues they are in, but there are definitely a lot of top teams in other leagues, and that would even it out.
Your prediction of 4.5:1 is probably pretty close, or at least in the right ballpark, as I don't think there are any teams out there who are head and shoulders above the other top teams.
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