Had some free time and was incredibly bored and felt like drawing this up. Some analysis, but mostly my opinion so here you go...
Monmouth (12-1)
Remaining- Minnesota, Las Vegas, Columbus
Key wins- Honolulu, Las Vegas
Key losses- Lincoln
Outlook- Minnesota game looks like their last chance to stumble after LV got exposed this week. Monmouth controls their own destiny to grab the number 1 seed and it looks like they’ll do it.
Optimistic Finish- Win out, grab the number one seed, no help needed.
Pessimistic Finish- Lose to Minnesota or Las Vegas, dropping them to the second seed behind Lincoln. If they somehow do lose to both that would put them at 4th in all probability, but very unlikely.
Projected Finish- 1 seed, Minnesota game should be a good one but I don’t see them losing.
Lincoln (11-2)
Remaining-Dallas V, Richmond, OCT
Key wins- Honolulu, Monmouth, Las Vegas
Key losses- SF Fire, Minnesota
Outlook- Probably the easiest schedule of the teams fighting for first in the west, but will have to face two teams (RRY, OCT) that will be playing for a playoff spot. Winning all 3 games is expected of them and this would drop them in at number one or two depending on Monmouth. They are in the fortunate position of being ahead of both the teams that have tiebreakers on them.
Optimistic Finish- Win out and hope for a Monmouth stumble, finish tops in the west
Pesimistic Finish- Lose one of their remaining games and drop to 4th and play the loser of the Hon/LV game this week in the first round of the playoffs.
Projected Finish- 2 seed, I don’t think MEM will fail the rest of the way, but neither should the Navigators.
Honolulu Hurricane Warriors (11-2)
Remaining- Las Vegas, Columbus, Anchorage
Key wins- SF Fire, Minnesota
Key losses- Lincoln, Monmouth
Outlook- The loss to Monmouth definitely hurts, and they would need some unlikely help in order to finish better than 3rd in the west. Big game next week against a LV team that got raped at home by San Fran today. Two easy wins should follow.
Optimistic Finish- 3rd with a win over LV. They could grab first with two Monmouth losses and a stumble by Lincoln, but that’s not very likely with two teams that only have 3 losses combined so far.
Pessimistic Finish- A loss to LV and getting sent to 4th or 5th place depending on the outcome of the LV/Minnesota game, the loser of which would be their 1st round opponent.
Projected Finish- 3 seed, Like I said before, don’t see Monmouth or Lincoln dropping any games, but they should win out.
Las Vegas Freebirds (11-2)
Remaining-Honolulu, Monmouth, Minnesota
Key wins- ehhhhh…. None I guess
Key losses- Lincoln, SF Fire
Outlook- The loss to the Fire definitely hurt, and this might have exposed LV for a team that up til now just had the weak part of their schedule. Very narrow wins over OCT, Dallas O, and BSB earlier hinted towards this, but the next three weeks give the Freebirds a chance to prove themselves. Definitely the hardest schedule of any team in the west remains.
Optimistic Finish- Repeat what Lincoln accomplished earlier in the year by beating Hon and MEM in consecutive weeks and finish with a win over Minnesota to end with a 2 seed. If I were LV I’d be ecstatic with 2 wins on this stretch, which would put them between the 3rd and 5th seed.
Pessimistic Finish- Lose out (which is a very real possibility) finishing at 11-5 and landing a 6th seed.
Projected Finish- 6 seed, from what I saw today, Hon, MEM, and Minn should all beat down on LV. Lets hope today was a wake up call and not just a signal of how good LV really is.
Minnesota (10-3)
Remaining- Monmouth, Parma, Las Vegas
Key wins- Lincoln
Key losses- SF Fire, Hon
Outlook- Second hardest remaining schedule after Las Vegas, but all winnable games none the less. The loss to Dallas hurts a lot now, otherwise they’d have the tiebreaker over Lincoln. Monmouth game is a big one, and hopefully Galk won’t end up over game planning his team into the ground like last year cuz it has potential to be a showdown. A loss to MEM wouldn’t hurt too bad because they would still likely be playing LV in the last week for the chance to host a playoff game. Imo the most interesting team to watch over the last three games.
Optimistic Finish- Minn can win out, but they’d still need help to move up, with the exception of being able to jump LV with the head 2 head tiebreaker. One loss by Lincoln or Monmouth, or two by Honolulu would be needed.
Pessimistic Finish- Although I wouldn’t be surprised if they won out, it’s also entirely possible to lose out, with 2 good teams fighting for the top spot as well as a Parma team that’s fighting for it’s playoff life. Lose all 3 and they fall to 6th behind SF Fire and making a very unhappy 3rd seed.
Projected Finish- 4 seed, Like I said, I see Monmouth beating em, but if Galkuris pulls off the upset it wouldn’t be a huge surprise, but they should win out after that regardless.
SF Fire (8-5)
Remaining- Columbus, Anchorage, Dallas O
Key wins- Lincoln, Minnesota, Las Vegas
Key losses- Monmouth, Honolulu
Outlook- Easy schedule to finish the season for a team that could very easily be 12-1 right now. Four of their five losses have been by 4 or less. In any case, they have the least potential for upwards and downwards movement in the west, 3 wins doesn’t do anything for them without getting some help, and I can’t fathom them losing to both Columbus and Dallas O.
Optimistic Finish- Win out and get help. They can jump one spot if Lincoln or LV lose out, or if Minnesota loses two. Their ideal setup would be to have Minnesota lose to Monmouth and Parma, then beat LV, allowing SF to jump both Minn and LV with head to head tiebreakers.
Pessimistic Finish- I guess they could lose against Dallas and Columbus, both teams have pulled upsets over playoff bound teams, but I really can’t see it happening
Projected Finish- 5 seed, no reason they shouldn’t win out, and I expect LV to fall past them.
Richmond Rebel Yell (6-7)
Remaining-Dallas O, Lincoln, South Bay
Key wins- BSB, Parma, Columbus
Key losses- OCT, Orlando
Outlook- This is where things get cramped, 6 teams, 2 spots. RRY has had its ups and downs this year, starting hot and taking Minnesota to overtime in week 6 before losing. They’ve been heavily dependent on their 3rd coast offense all year, in large part due to their subpar defense which gave up no less than 41 points during a stretch from week 6 to 11 facing all playoff opponents. They are however in great shape because they have the earned tie-breakers over 3 of the 5 teams vying for the final 2 spots with a game against one of those teams (SB) coming in the final week. The reason I included Orlando in key losses is because of the 5 teams with the best shot to make the playoffs (RRY, OCT, Parma, BSB, SB) Richmond was unfortunate enough to draw the best team from the East to play. Without that game they have a one game lead on the rest of the pack.
Optimistic Finish- Going 2-1 with a loss to Lincoln, and root for Parma and BSB to pick up one loss each.
Pessimistic Finish- A loss to either South Bay or Dallas O will knock them out. If Parma OR BSB runs the table and OCT goes 2-1, RRY has no shot.
Projected Finish- finish 1-2 down the stretch, 7-9 overall. South Bay pulling out the big win, sending RRY home for the year.
Columbus Bucks (6-7)
Remaining- SF Fire, Honolulu, Monmouth
Key wins- South Bay, Parma, OCT
Key losses-BSB, RRY, Dallas O
Outlook- Brutal final week of the season, it would be a huge upset to come away with any victories in their last three. Tough to picture a way that 6 wins can get them into the playoffs
Optimistic Finish- Pull off an upset in one of their last 3 games, and hope for A LOT of help.
Pessimistic Finish- Lose out and miss the playoffs. If Parma and OCT out, they have no chance.
Projected Finish- Finish the season 6-10 and miss out on the playoffs.
Oklahoma City Thunderstorm (6-7)
Remaining- Anchorage, Dallas O, Lincoln
Key wins- Richmond, BSB, South Bay
Key losses- Columbus, Parma
Outlook- Cannot stress enough how much the loss to Columbus hurts. A one game lead at this point would all but ensure them a playoff spot, but no such luck. OCT is however in great position due to wins over RRY, BSB, and SB. Oklahoma City has done it with offense all year, but if they make it to the playoffs, I don’t think their defense (15th & 12th against in defensive pass yards and rush yards allowed per game, respectively) can get it done against any of the top offenses in the conference. OCT becomes a big fan of both South Bay and Parma who can both help out the Thunderstorm a lot.
Optimistic Finish- Go 2-1 with a loss to Lincoln, Richmond also loses to Lincoln, and Parma loses to BSB AND Minn.
Pessimistic Finish- Lose to both Dallas O and Lincoln and miss out on the playoffs, or a 2-1 finish with Parma going 2-1 AND either RRY or BSB runs the table.
Projected Finish- finish the year off going 2-1, 8-8 overall. They tie with BSB for the final spot and get the 8 seed with the head to head tiebreaker.
Bourbon Street Bullies (6-7)
Remaining- South Bay, Kaneohe, Parma
Key wins- Columbus
Key losses- RRY, OCT
Outlook- Another down year for Bourbon, who’s only good win so far has been an upset of SF Fire. BSB does still have a very good shot, if not the best, to make the playoffs. Not having tiebreakers over OCT and RRY isn’t a huge issue seeing as how both teams will have to still play Lincoln. BSB does not mathematically control its own destiny but they are in the best shape of any team at 6-7 heading into the final 3 games.
Optimistic Finish- Win out, Lincoln takes care of RRY and OCT and BSB pulls out a 7 seed with a chance to face Lincoln in the first round.
Pessimistic Finish- Lose to either South Bay or Parma and their season is over.
Projected Finish- Win against South Bay and Kaneohe followed up by the big game vs Parma. I’ve picked Parma to win that game before and I’m going to stick with it, even though BSB looks like the hotter team right now, sending BSB home.
Parma Burglars (6-7)
Remaining- Kaneohe, Minnesota, BSB
Key wins- OCT
Key losses- RRY, Columbus, South Bay
Outlook- If someone would have posted that Parma would lose to RRY, Columbus, and South Bay this year they probably would have been laughed at like a fat kid falling. Yet, here we are. Parma only holds a tie breaker over one of the teams in the hunt for the last two spots, but Columbus and South Bay will have to pull off quite a bit of upsets in order to finish with the same record as Parma. The Burglars game against BSB looks like its shaping up to be the biggest game of the last week and will be for the last playoff spot.
Optimistic Finish- going 2-1 with a loss to Minnesota, then RRY and Columbus both lose 2 games while South Bay loses at least one
Pessimistic Finish- Losses to BSB and Minnesota end a very disappointing season. RRY
Projected Finish- go 2-1 down the stretch with a huge win vs BSB to finish 8-8 and secure the 7th playoff spot.
South Bay Spartans (5-8)
Remaining- BSB, Dallas V, Richmond
Key wins- Parma
Key losses- Columbus, OCT
Outlook- South Bay’s season got new life with a win over Parma, and now with some help, the playoffs are within reach. The Larry Smith led team has to win out to have any shot, but that is completely possible. South Bay’s games against RRY and BSB will pit the top two passing offenses (395.3 and 390 yds/gm) vs South Bay’s top ranked pass defense (209 yds/gm).
Optimistic Finish- South Bay wins out and finishes at 8-8 and makes the playoffs so long as Columbus doesn’t get 2 upsets in their final three and Parma loses at least one of their final 3.
Pessimistic Finish- A loss to either BSB or Richmond ends their season.
Projected Finish- I think they can pull off beating either Richmond or BSB, but not both, South Bay has to watch the playoffs from home.
Monmouth (12-1)
Remaining- Minnesota, Las Vegas, Columbus
Key wins- Honolulu, Las Vegas
Key losses- Lincoln
Outlook- Minnesota game looks like their last chance to stumble after LV got exposed this week. Monmouth controls their own destiny to grab the number 1 seed and it looks like they’ll do it.
Optimistic Finish- Win out, grab the number one seed, no help needed.
Pessimistic Finish- Lose to Minnesota or Las Vegas, dropping them to the second seed behind Lincoln. If they somehow do lose to both that would put them at 4th in all probability, but very unlikely.
Projected Finish- 1 seed, Minnesota game should be a good one but I don’t see them losing.
Lincoln (11-2)
Remaining-Dallas V, Richmond, OCT
Key wins- Honolulu, Monmouth, Las Vegas
Key losses- SF Fire, Minnesota
Outlook- Probably the easiest schedule of the teams fighting for first in the west, but will have to face two teams (RRY, OCT) that will be playing for a playoff spot. Winning all 3 games is expected of them and this would drop them in at number one or two depending on Monmouth. They are in the fortunate position of being ahead of both the teams that have tiebreakers on them.
Optimistic Finish- Win out and hope for a Monmouth stumble, finish tops in the west
Pesimistic Finish- Lose one of their remaining games and drop to 4th and play the loser of the Hon/LV game this week in the first round of the playoffs.
Projected Finish- 2 seed, I don’t think MEM will fail the rest of the way, but neither should the Navigators.
Honolulu Hurricane Warriors (11-2)
Remaining- Las Vegas, Columbus, Anchorage
Key wins- SF Fire, Minnesota
Key losses- Lincoln, Monmouth
Outlook- The loss to Monmouth definitely hurts, and they would need some unlikely help in order to finish better than 3rd in the west. Big game next week against a LV team that got raped at home by San Fran today. Two easy wins should follow.
Optimistic Finish- 3rd with a win over LV. They could grab first with two Monmouth losses and a stumble by Lincoln, but that’s not very likely with two teams that only have 3 losses combined so far.
Pessimistic Finish- A loss to LV and getting sent to 4th or 5th place depending on the outcome of the LV/Minnesota game, the loser of which would be their 1st round opponent.
Projected Finish- 3 seed, Like I said before, don’t see Monmouth or Lincoln dropping any games, but they should win out.
Las Vegas Freebirds (11-2)
Remaining-Honolulu, Monmouth, Minnesota
Key wins- ehhhhh…. None I guess
Key losses- Lincoln, SF Fire
Outlook- The loss to the Fire definitely hurt, and this might have exposed LV for a team that up til now just had the weak part of their schedule. Very narrow wins over OCT, Dallas O, and BSB earlier hinted towards this, but the next three weeks give the Freebirds a chance to prove themselves. Definitely the hardest schedule of any team in the west remains.
Optimistic Finish- Repeat what Lincoln accomplished earlier in the year by beating Hon and MEM in consecutive weeks and finish with a win over Minnesota to end with a 2 seed. If I were LV I’d be ecstatic with 2 wins on this stretch, which would put them between the 3rd and 5th seed.
Pessimistic Finish- Lose out (which is a very real possibility) finishing at 11-5 and landing a 6th seed.
Projected Finish- 6 seed, from what I saw today, Hon, MEM, and Minn should all beat down on LV. Lets hope today was a wake up call and not just a signal of how good LV really is.
Minnesota (10-3)
Remaining- Monmouth, Parma, Las Vegas
Key wins- Lincoln
Key losses- SF Fire, Hon
Outlook- Second hardest remaining schedule after Las Vegas, but all winnable games none the less. The loss to Dallas hurts a lot now, otherwise they’d have the tiebreaker over Lincoln. Monmouth game is a big one, and hopefully Galk won’t end up over game planning his team into the ground like last year cuz it has potential to be a showdown. A loss to MEM wouldn’t hurt too bad because they would still likely be playing LV in the last week for the chance to host a playoff game. Imo the most interesting team to watch over the last three games.
Optimistic Finish- Minn can win out, but they’d still need help to move up, with the exception of being able to jump LV with the head 2 head tiebreaker. One loss by Lincoln or Monmouth, or two by Honolulu would be needed.
Pessimistic Finish- Although I wouldn’t be surprised if they won out, it’s also entirely possible to lose out, with 2 good teams fighting for the top spot as well as a Parma team that’s fighting for it’s playoff life. Lose all 3 and they fall to 6th behind SF Fire and making a very unhappy 3rd seed.
Projected Finish- 4 seed, Like I said, I see Monmouth beating em, but if Galkuris pulls off the upset it wouldn’t be a huge surprise, but they should win out after that regardless.
SF Fire (8-5)
Remaining- Columbus, Anchorage, Dallas O
Key wins- Lincoln, Minnesota, Las Vegas
Key losses- Monmouth, Honolulu
Outlook- Easy schedule to finish the season for a team that could very easily be 12-1 right now. Four of their five losses have been by 4 or less. In any case, they have the least potential for upwards and downwards movement in the west, 3 wins doesn’t do anything for them without getting some help, and I can’t fathom them losing to both Columbus and Dallas O.
Optimistic Finish- Win out and get help. They can jump one spot if Lincoln or LV lose out, or if Minnesota loses two. Their ideal setup would be to have Minnesota lose to Monmouth and Parma, then beat LV, allowing SF to jump both Minn and LV with head to head tiebreakers.
Pessimistic Finish- I guess they could lose against Dallas and Columbus, both teams have pulled upsets over playoff bound teams, but I really can’t see it happening
Projected Finish- 5 seed, no reason they shouldn’t win out, and I expect LV to fall past them.
Richmond Rebel Yell (6-7)
Remaining-Dallas O, Lincoln, South Bay
Key wins- BSB, Parma, Columbus
Key losses- OCT, Orlando
Outlook- This is where things get cramped, 6 teams, 2 spots. RRY has had its ups and downs this year, starting hot and taking Minnesota to overtime in week 6 before losing. They’ve been heavily dependent on their 3rd coast offense all year, in large part due to their subpar defense which gave up no less than 41 points during a stretch from week 6 to 11 facing all playoff opponents. They are however in great shape because they have the earned tie-breakers over 3 of the 5 teams vying for the final 2 spots with a game against one of those teams (SB) coming in the final week. The reason I included Orlando in key losses is because of the 5 teams with the best shot to make the playoffs (RRY, OCT, Parma, BSB, SB) Richmond was unfortunate enough to draw the best team from the East to play. Without that game they have a one game lead on the rest of the pack.
Optimistic Finish- Going 2-1 with a loss to Lincoln, and root for Parma and BSB to pick up one loss each.
Pessimistic Finish- A loss to either South Bay or Dallas O will knock them out. If Parma OR BSB runs the table and OCT goes 2-1, RRY has no shot.
Projected Finish- finish 1-2 down the stretch, 7-9 overall. South Bay pulling out the big win, sending RRY home for the year.
Columbus Bucks (6-7)
Remaining- SF Fire, Honolulu, Monmouth
Key wins- South Bay, Parma, OCT
Key losses-BSB, RRY, Dallas O
Outlook- Brutal final week of the season, it would be a huge upset to come away with any victories in their last three. Tough to picture a way that 6 wins can get them into the playoffs
Optimistic Finish- Pull off an upset in one of their last 3 games, and hope for A LOT of help.
Pessimistic Finish- Lose out and miss the playoffs. If Parma and OCT out, they have no chance.
Projected Finish- Finish the season 6-10 and miss out on the playoffs.
Oklahoma City Thunderstorm (6-7)
Remaining- Anchorage, Dallas O, Lincoln
Key wins- Richmond, BSB, South Bay
Key losses- Columbus, Parma
Outlook- Cannot stress enough how much the loss to Columbus hurts. A one game lead at this point would all but ensure them a playoff spot, but no such luck. OCT is however in great position due to wins over RRY, BSB, and SB. Oklahoma City has done it with offense all year, but if they make it to the playoffs, I don’t think their defense (15th & 12th against in defensive pass yards and rush yards allowed per game, respectively) can get it done against any of the top offenses in the conference. OCT becomes a big fan of both South Bay and Parma who can both help out the Thunderstorm a lot.
Optimistic Finish- Go 2-1 with a loss to Lincoln, Richmond also loses to Lincoln, and Parma loses to BSB AND Minn.
Pessimistic Finish- Lose to both Dallas O and Lincoln and miss out on the playoffs, or a 2-1 finish with Parma going 2-1 AND either RRY or BSB runs the table.
Projected Finish- finish the year off going 2-1, 8-8 overall. They tie with BSB for the final spot and get the 8 seed with the head to head tiebreaker.
Bourbon Street Bullies (6-7)
Remaining- South Bay, Kaneohe, Parma
Key wins- Columbus
Key losses- RRY, OCT
Outlook- Another down year for Bourbon, who’s only good win so far has been an upset of SF Fire. BSB does still have a very good shot, if not the best, to make the playoffs. Not having tiebreakers over OCT and RRY isn’t a huge issue seeing as how both teams will have to still play Lincoln. BSB does not mathematically control its own destiny but they are in the best shape of any team at 6-7 heading into the final 3 games.
Optimistic Finish- Win out, Lincoln takes care of RRY and OCT and BSB pulls out a 7 seed with a chance to face Lincoln in the first round.
Pessimistic Finish- Lose to either South Bay or Parma and their season is over.
Projected Finish- Win against South Bay and Kaneohe followed up by the big game vs Parma. I’ve picked Parma to win that game before and I’m going to stick with it, even though BSB looks like the hotter team right now, sending BSB home.
Parma Burglars (6-7)
Remaining- Kaneohe, Minnesota, BSB
Key wins- OCT
Key losses- RRY, Columbus, South Bay
Outlook- If someone would have posted that Parma would lose to RRY, Columbus, and South Bay this year they probably would have been laughed at like a fat kid falling. Yet, here we are. Parma only holds a tie breaker over one of the teams in the hunt for the last two spots, but Columbus and South Bay will have to pull off quite a bit of upsets in order to finish with the same record as Parma. The Burglars game against BSB looks like its shaping up to be the biggest game of the last week and will be for the last playoff spot.
Optimistic Finish- going 2-1 with a loss to Minnesota, then RRY and Columbus both lose 2 games while South Bay loses at least one
Pessimistic Finish- Losses to BSB and Minnesota end a very disappointing season. RRY
Projected Finish- go 2-1 down the stretch with a huge win vs BSB to finish 8-8 and secure the 7th playoff spot.
South Bay Spartans (5-8)
Remaining- BSB, Dallas V, Richmond
Key wins- Parma
Key losses- Columbus, OCT
Outlook- South Bay’s season got new life with a win over Parma, and now with some help, the playoffs are within reach. The Larry Smith led team has to win out to have any shot, but that is completely possible. South Bay’s games against RRY and BSB will pit the top two passing offenses (395.3 and 390 yds/gm) vs South Bay’s top ranked pass defense (209 yds/gm).
Optimistic Finish- South Bay wins out and finishes at 8-8 and makes the playoffs so long as Columbus doesn’t get 2 upsets in their final three and Parma loses at least one of their final 3.
Pessimistic Finish- A loss to either BSB or Richmond ends their season.
Projected Finish- I think they can pull off beating either Richmond or BSB, but not both, South Bay has to watch the playoffs from home.
Last edited Jan 27, 2009 19:55:46
